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October 30, 2015 Raising AcesSyndergaard vs Ventura: Hot Hot Heat
The kids go to battle in game three of the World Series, as the combined age of starters Yordano Ventura and Noah Syndergaard is just 47 years old. They are two of the hardest-throwing pitchers in the game, so expect a lot of contact to the opposite field as batters hone in on the proper timing. Recent history tells us that both teams will dig into their bullpen by the seventh inning even if the young guns are throwing well, but one can expect plenty of bullets to be fired starting with the opening frame.
The Stats
Ventura The word “ventura” is Spanish for “fortune” or “luck,” but Yordano was anything but lucky to see his ERA climb 0.88 runs despite strikeout and walk rates that represented an improvement over his 2014 campaign. The Royals sent him down to the PCL back in June to see if he could work out the kinks, and there he cooled his jets for a month before returning to KC, after which it took another month before he started to get his groove back. A number of rough outings left Ventura with a 5.29 ERA as late as the first week of August, but he was able to right the ship down the stretch and entered the postseason with a 2.39 ERA over his previous 11 games, including 81 strikeouts in his final 68.0 innings of the regular season.
Regular Season Stats
Ventura hit double-digit strikeouts in three games this past season, and each of the high-K contests took place over the last five weeks of the season, including an 11-strikeout performance against the Twins in his final start of the regular season. The Royals have been careful with Ventura thus far in the postseason, limiting his workloads to no more than 97 pitches in any of his four postseason starts, facing no more than 25 batters or pitching more than 5.3 frames. The net result has been an unsightly 5.09 ERA with 21 strikeouts and eight walks in 17.7 innings pitched this postseason.
Syndergaard
Thor simply dominated National League batters in 2015. With 10.0 strikeouts per nine innings and just 1.9 walks per nine, Syndergaard stood out on both ends of the spectrum en route to a K-to-walk ratio of 5.35-to-one. He possesses the stuff to back up the numbers, and his resume becomes even more impressive when considering that this was his first exposure to the best hitters in the world.
Regular Season Stats
Syndergaard has been a strikeout machine in the playoffs. He made two starts and had a relief appearance in the first two rounds, compiling 20 K's in a combined 13.0 innings of work. His one weakness during the regular season was the longball, having given up 19 homers in his 24 turns, but he has kept the ball in the yard thus far in the postseason. He uncharacteristically walked four batters in his first playoff appearance, only the third time of 2015 that he has walked that many hitters in a ballgame, as he generally keeps the free passes to a minimum.
The Stuff
Ventura
In 2014, Ventura's average four-seam velocity of 98.2 mph was tops among MLB starting pitchers, but this season he has lost a tick, with a heater that ranked third among pitchers who had thrown at least 500 four-seamers in 2015 (playoffs included in above data). His strikeouts were pretty evenly spread throughout the arsenal in 2014, with the fastball finishing more K's than any other pitch due to sheer volume, but the curveball has become the right-hander's weapon of choice in 2015. Ventura used the curve to finish off more than half of his strikeouts in 2015, and the pitch has been his most effective weapon over the past three months.
Syndergaard
The man who unseated Ventura atop the velocity mountain, Syndergaard is now the proud owner of the hardest average fastball in the Major Leagues (among starting pitchers). He has flashed triple-digit smoke on multiple occasions in the playoffs, and he uses that heat in virtually any count – 91 of his 166 punchouts of the 2015 regular season were accomplished via the fastball. Thor's hammer is heavy, and though he is much more likely to throw it to a right-handed batter than a lefty, Syndergaard is just as likely to throw the curve on the first pitch of an at bat as he is with two strikes and a punchout on order.
From a stuff standpoint, Ventura and Syndergaard are very similar – they are both velocity-heavy, utilize a similar blend of four-seamers and sinkers, and off-set that approach with a steep curveball to keep batters off-balance. The big difference might be in their respected use of a third pitch, as though Ventura's changeup is by far his weakest offering, Syndergaard has continued to hone el cambio and has been able to use it as an effective weapon against left-handed bats this postseason – just ask Kyle Schwarber.
The Mechanics
Ventura
Mechanics Report Card
For an explanation on the grading system for pitching mechanics, please consult this pair of articles.
Ventura has made small improvements to his stability grades to bring both his balance and his posture up to league average, and his ability to make continued improvements in these categories will likely play a large role in his particular path of development. He still has a bit of first-base drift, some lean-back toward second base during his stride, and a touch of extra drop after max leg lift, but these three elements of balance have evolved since last season. He grades appear mundane on the surface, at least until the 70-grade torque pops, as his combination of upper-body load and a delayed trigger act to create massive hip-shoulder separation.
Ventura started 2014 strong mechanically but worsened down the stretch, so the fact that he ended 2015 on a mechanical high note is an optimistic sign for tonight's performance. Pitchers often improve the stability grades of balance and posture over time, but they rarely make gains in the power categories of momentum and torque, a factor which raises the roof on Ventura's upside and adds some helium to his overall grade on the mechanics report card.
Syndergaard Mechanics Report Card
Syndergaard has very modest power grades for a pitcher who throws so incredibly hard. His momentum is well-directed but lacks speed down the mound, saving his charge until just before foot strike, but more shocking is a torque grade that is merely plus despite the very strong relationship between pitch velocity and torque. His hip-shoulder separation is driven almost entirely by the lower half, with a pronounced delay of trunk rotation that allows the hips to rotate and create separation after foot strike.
Balance is Syndergaard's strongest attribute, displaying stability in all three planes and staying especially strong in the X-direction, minimizing any side-to-side sway of his head. He does invoke some very late spine-tilt as the arm whips through the zone, and though that posture varies and flashes plus at times, it can also slip into average territory on a given pitch. The 55-grade for posture from his report card represents an approximate average, but inconsistent spine-tilt will cause that value to fluctuate on a pitch-by-pitch basis. Thor repeats the delivery very well and I flirted with the idea of putting a 65-grade on his Repetition, but the rookie is going to have to provide a bit more audience before putting him in such elite company. He is on the cusp of a B+ for his overall grade.
Doug Thorburn is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @doug_thorburn
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