October 30, 2015

Playoff Prospectus

PECOTA Odds and World Series Game 3 Preview

by Sahadev Sharma

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The Royals are two wins away from not being forced to settle for second place in back-to-back years. On to the always critical Game Three—hmm, perhaps every game in the postseason is critical, huh?

Kansas City Royals (Yordano Ventura) at New York Mets (Noah Syndergaard) 8:00 p.m. Eastern

PECOTA odds of winning: 69% Mets, 31% Royals

Projected Starting Lineups

Injuries/Availability:

After a marathon Game One, the key pieces in both bullpens should be well rested following Thursday’s off day and a Game Two in which the Royals rode Johnny Cueto’s strong start for nine innings and the Mets avoided using Jeurys Familia for only the second time this postseason. Still, two questions that lingered prior to both games remain: the true condition of Juan Uribe and his bruised back, and the status of Ben Zobrist and his very pregnant wife. However, it seems there’s a little more clarity on the latter now that the series is moving to New York. The fact that he’s not a quick trip away from his wife means that unless it’s an emergency, Zobrist isn’t likely to leave his team at a moment’s notice during the World Series.

Yoenis Cespedes injured his shoulder in Game Four of the NLCS (doing pushups?), and while it’s just two games, one has to wonder how healthy he currently is after a poor performance at the plate thus far.

Outlook:

After a so-so start in the NLDS, Noah Syndergaard helped close out the Dodgers with a strong inning of relief in Game Five. Two days later he put the Cubs in a 2-0 hole by shutting down their big bats with pinpoint control of his fastball, which still touched the upper 90s despite pitching on a cold and windy evening in Gotham. Syndergaard takes the ball as the series heads to Citi Field and will have his hands full with a Royals offense that’s gotten a lot of love for its ability to hit extreme velocity and make contact at such a high rate. It’s deserved, and proved to be quite important in this series, especially in a four-run fifth inning in Game Two that saw the Royals single their way from a one-run deficit to a three-run lead.

However, the difference in the series has been the Mets complete inability to hit, especially for power. After slugging .363 in the first half of the season, a Mets team that was transformed via trades and health slugged an NL-leading .443 in the second half. In the first two rounds of the playoffs, New York had strong performances from a few bats, but in particular Cespedes in the NLDS and Daniel Murphy in both. The two accounted for much of their over-the-fence power, delivering nine of the teams 14 home runs. In two World Series games (one of which went 14 innings) the two have combined to go 3-for-19 with zero extra-base hits.

And yes, the inning that got things going for the Royals in Game Two was a singles-fest, but that’s not what this team has done this postseason. After posting an ISO of .144 in the regular season (21^st in baseball), Kansas City posted a .201 and .159 ISO in the ALDS and ALCS, respectively. Sure, they’re going to drive pitchers crazy by fouling pitches off, rarely striking out (after an MLB-best 15.9 percent strikeout rate in the regular season, the Royals have topped that by striking out just 10 times in 97 plate appearances this World Series), and putting so many balls in play, but like they did last postseason, this group comes to slug in October. Alex Gordon kept Game One going an extra five innings because he was able to do just that.

It’s also important to note that New York had its closer on the mound—who entered the game with 9 2/3 scoreless postseason innings—and was two outs away from a 1-0 series lead; it’s not as if Terry Collins’ club has been utterly dominated for two games. But the Mets now face an uphill climb, and if they—despite having just one extra-base hit against the Royals, a fifth-inning solo homer from Curtis Granderson in Game One—want to get back in this series, their key bats are going to have to regain their power stroke. PECOTA may have nice expectations for the Mets, but it’s going to take more than rosy projections for New York to get back on track after an impressive showing in the NLCS. Yes, the young arms haven’t dominated like they did against the Cubs, but credit needs to be given to the Royals offense, and blame needs to be placed on the Mets bats, to help explain Kansas City’s 2-0 lead.

Game Three will air at 8:00 p.m. ET on FOX.

Sahadev Sharma is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @sahadevsharma
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