October 27, 2015

The Call-Up

Raul A. Mondesi

by Craig Goldstein and Ben Carsley

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The Situation: The Royals are seeking some additional flexibility at the end of their World Series roster, and Raul Adalberto Mondesi will provide the middle-infield depth that Terrance Gore cannot, while still offering speed to burn as a pinch-runner.

Background: Signed for $2 million in 2011, Mondesi has made impressive strides while being aggressively challenged his entire career as a professional. While he’s spent a full season in each level at which he’s played, Mondesi was always one of the younger players at his levels, and he hadn’t faced a pitcher younger than him until this season at Double-A. While he’s made believers out of many with his glove, speed and arm, the aggressive schedule designed by Kansas City has left his offensive future cloudy with no chance of bases on balls. But viewing his production through the lens of age relative to level, merely surviving is a success, and he has done that—if just.

Scouting Report: Mondesi isn’t a finished product by any means, but that hasn’t slowed his ascent through the minor leagues. He can provide immediate value on defense, with a glove that can flash plus-plus thanks to the instincts you expect from a major leaguer’s kid, and plus to plus-plus speed. He’s a quick-twitch athlete with a good first step, a quick transfer and an arm that allows him to make all the throws necessary from short. His accuracy can come and go at times, but his defensive tools grade out as plus, and the sum of the parts can push that grade up a bit.

At the plate, Mondesi’s development has been stagnant thanks to the aggressive assignments. Whether that will pay off in major strides that click all at once down the line, or serve to tamp down the gains that a more patient approach to development would have reaped, remains to be seen. He's a bottom-of-the-scale hitter despite present contact skills. He can identify and track spin and shows the ability to barrel quality breaking pitches in spurts. He isn’t without an approach but can be coaxed out of his plan at the plate by good sequencing, and premium velocity will result in weak contact more often than not. A switch-hitter, he offers more power from the left side, though in terms of in-game functionality that qualifies as a distinction without a difference currently. That might change as he continues to add weight, as he has the bat speed to catch up to velocity, but his present skills qualify him to be a defensive replacement and pinch-runner.

Immediate Big-League Future: He’s shown the ability to adjust over the course of a season, so despite the meager production at the plate, real developmental strides have been made. His current placement on the World Series roster is strictly a depth move—and we all know how Ned Yost tends to use his reserves mostly to hold down picnictablecloths on windy days. Even if this is a preemptive strike against Ben Zobrist's potential paternity leave, Mondesi would likely still only be backing up Christian Colon, in addition to pinch-running. Still, it’s not difficult to see Mondesi on the big-league roster late in 2016 or in early 2017 as he continues to hold his own in the minors. As it stands, a return to the minor leagues is overwhelmingly likely to open the 2016 season. —Craig Goldstein

Fantasy Impact: This is a big day for those of you playing in two-shortstop AL-only leagues, legacy-only leagues, deep web DFS leagues and other leagues that would qualify for our WFF of the Week on TINO. All kidding aside, this is a unique call-up for fantasy owners in that it really has no bearing on the prospect in question’s fantasy relevance timetable. As Craig alluded to above, Mondesi is still very unlikely to see substantial MLB time in 2016, and given his offensive performance in High-A and Double-A, that’s not a bad thing for our purposes.

What this does do, subjectively speaking, is reaffirm how much the Royals believe in Mondesi and how likely he is to have some type of consistent MLB role by mid-2017; a season during which he’ll turn all of 22. The year 2017 also just so happens to be the final year of Alcides Escobar’s contract, and while speculating that far into the future is a fool’s errand, only fools play in dynasty leagues. (Yes, Mondesi could play second base sooner, but that would be something of a waste of his defensive profile.)

For now, be aware that this will further raise Mondesi’s fantasy profile, and it could actually present a nice sell-high opportunity for Mondesi in dynasty formats. He’s a very, very good prospect, but there’s a real gap forming between his MLB and dynasty value in my eyes. If it all clicks he could be a top-10 SS option, but there’s also a very real chance he turns into, say, Erick Aybar, and even that might not happen until he’s a year or two into his MLB career. He might be closer to regular MLB playing time than anyone thought, but that doesn’t make him all that much closer to fantasy production. —Ben Carsley

Craig Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @cdgoldstein
Click here to see Craig's other articles. You can contact Craig by clicking here
Ben Carsley is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @bencarsley
Click here to see Ben's other articles. You can contact Ben by clicking here