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October 23, 2015 Playoff ProspectusPECOTA Odds and ALCS Game 6 PreviewMarco Estrada tossed a gem and the Blue Jays blew Game Five open with a four-run sixth inning to move the ALCS back to Kansas City. Perhaps the most important implication of the margin by which the Blue Jays won was that manager John Gibbons didn’t feel obligated to use David Price in relief. Tonight, the left-hander will do his best to keep Toronto’s season alive. Toronto Blue Jays (David Price) vs. Kansas City Royals (Yordano Ventura), 8:07 p.m. Eastern
PECOTA odds of winning: 58% Blue Jays, 42% Royals
Projected Starting Lineups
Injuries/Availability: After missing Games Four and Five due to a personal matter, Aaron Loup is expected to be available out of the bullpen for the Blue Jays in Game Six. Brett Cecil’s calf injury during the ALDS knocked him out of the postseason, so Loup’s return to the team now gives John Gibbons a lefty option out of his bullpen to face the likes of Hosmer and Moustakas in a potential high-leverage situation.
Outlook: In his recap of Game Five, Sam Miller touched upon Gibbons’ curious use of Price this postseason and what it might imply about his preferences:
It’s a perplexing situation, one that is only exacerbated by Stroman not quite pitching up to the ridiculously high bar he set for himself in 2014. He hasn’t been bad by any means, and his stuff still looks sharp, but he’s also struck out just 28 batters in 46 1/3 innings since returning. He’s still very good and getting grounders by the boatload; he’s just not exactly lighting the world on fire. It’s not a matter of a hidden injury; he wouldn’t be pitching in blowouts if that were the case. Against the Rangers, you could make the argument that Stroman matched up better. Electing to go with Estrada in Game One and then almost wasting Price in relief in Game Five is tougher to defend. Just how much Gibbons trusts Price might not be clear, but PECOTA still thinks highly enough of the left-hander to give the Blue Jays nearly 3-to-2 odds—on the road, no less—to force a Game Seven.
Chris Mosch is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @chris_mosch
7 comments have been left for this article.
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Gibbons used Price in relief because he didn't have any left-handers in the pen.
It really is that simple. The American media is trying to make a mountain out of a molehill. In fact, it was Price, knowing the Jays had no lefties in the pen, who offered to pitch in relief whenever necessary. Price even told Gibbons he wanted to START game 3 on short rest. Price is a gamer, he has absolutely no issue with how he's been used; it's simply a media narrative.
Agree with both you guys, I can't believe this got mentioned again here but with the Mets sweeping I guess there isn't much else to take about.
The key phrase there is "when necessary". You all have an incredibly expansive definition of "necessary".
Well actually, y'all just panicking under pressure like Gibbons is doing. Now Gibbons has actual emotional reason to do so. But he's also getting paid a few million $$$ not to do so. Oh well, it's certainly most all on the players now anyway.