October 19, 2015

The Buyer's Guide

Mike Moustakas

by J.P. Breen

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In late April 2015, I dedicated “The Buyer’s Guide” to Mike Moustakas, as he was hitting .304/.407/.478 with a pair of home runs and was one of the brightest surprises of the young campaign. The California native benefitted from significant luck, but it was paired with seemingly meaningful changes in his batted-ball profile and his contact rates. His fantasy ownership skyrocketed accordingly.

Those improvements overshadowed the fact that his infield-fly issues remained in a big way, something that has traditionally dragged down his BABIP (and, thus, his batting average). Given that, and the fact that it seemed rash to assume that his one-month improvements would be sustainable over the course of a 162-game season, I cautioned that his rest-of-season batting average projected to sit around .240-.250.

In the five months following the publishing date of the article, Mike Moustakas hit .282/.342/.469 with 32 doubles, a triple, and 20 home runs. In other words, from April 20 through the end of the season, the 27-year-old was comfortably better than the average-average third baseman.

What happened?

In short, Moustakas sustained his early-season improvements and hinted at sustainability. His contact rates were still career-best marks by the end of the regular season. His 7.1 percent swinging-strike rate is his lowest. His 85.0 percent contact rate in 2015 was his best, aside from his brief big-league debut in 2011. All of that resulted in a 12.4 percent strikeout rate—tops in his five-year career.

Royals fans will often point to his batted-ball profile as another key change. Opposing teams used to often employ the shift against Moustakas because he frequently pulled the baseball. That kind of profile is tied to a low batting average, and his penchant for the infield fly balls only made things worse. The fact that he started to utilize left field with regularity made the KC faithful happier than criticizing baseball writers for not picking the Royals to make the playoffs before the season began.

Note the 11.3-percentage-point drop in how often he pulled the baseball in 2015:

Year	Pull%	Center%	Opposite%
2011	40.2%	37.1%	22.7%
2012	43.5%	34.5%	22.1%
2013	49.7%	29.4%	20.8%
2014	50.5%	28.1%	21.4%
2015	39.2%	33.4%	27.4%

It’s significant that his opposite-field percentage in 2015 was a career high by almost five percent; however, the pull percentage is the most encouraging. It should keep the opposition from shifting against him so liberally. They have to respect his ability to poke the baseball to left field.In fact, he hit .366 to the opposite field.

Despite this, Moustakas still did the vast majority of his damage to the pull side. He compiled a .353 ISO to right field, almost 70 points higher than a year ago. In other words, when the Royals’ third baseman pulled the ball, he did so much more effectively than in years past. That’s the desired byproduct of using the whole field. Pull it when you can do damage, use the remainder of the field when necessary.

This isn’t to suggest that Moustakas is a budding superstar. He was a four-win player—so plenty valuable—but only the 13th-ranked fantasy third baseman. Someone who was outperformed by Adrian Beltre and Matt Duffy. His average batted-ball velocity was middle of the pack at 113th overall. Furthermore, his 15.3 percent infield-fly rate remains well above the league’s average, which should negatively affect his batting average going forward.

Still, there are many things that Moustakas is doing right. He’s trending in the right direction and showing sustainable growth in key areas. Perhaps the 2016 season will see him improve even more during his age-27 season. At the very least, he’s a legitimate fantasy third baseman who contributes in multiple fantasy categories. He’s someone who may have some sneaky value if he continue to hit in the number-two spot in the Royals’ lineup, too, as many owners may look to “sell high” this winter.

BUYER’S ADVICE: HOLD

I’m not willing to slap a “buy” tag on Moustakas yet. I’m just not sure the ceiling is much higher than what he showed in 2015. Still, the former first-round pick really grew up this season and appears to have arrived as a legitimate big-league third baseman. This doesn’t appear to be a fluke—which means it’s not time for dynasty league owners to off-load him during the upcoming offseason. It’s probably best to hold tight and see what kind of improvement (if any) we’ll see in 2016. The downside doesn’t appear to be huge, and that’s suddenly comforting.

J.P. Breen is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @jp_breen
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