October 15, 2015

Playoff Prospectus

NLDS Game 5 Preview and PECOTA Odds

by Jeffrey Paternostro

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Game 5. deGrom. Greinke. This pretty much sells itself. But if that doesn't do it for you, perhaps Yoenis Cespedes may fire back in his Magic/Bird batflip toss competition with Jose Bautista.

New York Mets (Jacob deGrom) at Los Angeles Dodgers (Zack Greinke), 8:00 PM EST (TBS)

PECOTA odds of winning: 40% Mets, 60% Dodgers

Projected Starting Lineups

Injuries/Availability: It will be all hands on deck for the Mets in this one. Terry Collins has already stated that both Noah Syndergaard and Matt Harvey will be available out of the pen, and you have to assume Fireman Bartolo will be available as well, even after two straight multi-inning outings.

Don Mattingly declared Yasmani Grandal a 50/50 proposition for Game 5 due to a lingering left shoulder injury. Justin Turner is probable after leaving Game 4 early with a swollen left knee. Like the Mets, you have to assume just about every pitcher on the postseason roster will be available, even Clayton Kershaw for a batter or two.

Outlook: The collection of pitching talent that may end up throwing in this game is as good as you may ever see in one place at one time. Two elite closers in Jansen and Familia may be called on for multiple innings. The bridge to Familia might be Noah Syndergaard who was touching 101 when he was pacing himself for 100 pitches. Who knows what happens if he knows he only has to throw 20? Kershaw could roll out of the pen to face Duda and Conforto late in the game in a big spot. And I haven't even mentioned the starters yet, two of the best pitchers in baseball this year. This is the part where I tell you that “You can't predict baseball, Suzyn,” and that the game might end up an 8-7 slugfest, but this could also be a special, special Game 5. The Dodgers didn't do much against deGrom in Game 1 despite his occasional command struggles, and the Mets only managed a pair of solo shots of Greinke in Game 2. Both pitchers are on normal rest with deGrom getting a valuable extra day after being stretched for 120 bullets.

PECOTA gives the Dodgers the 3-2 edge, but I wonder if it still hasn't quite figured out it should ignore deGrom's minor league stats. Game Fives are weird (though generally not as weird as Texas/Toronto), so can I just put ¯_(ツ)_/¯ here? No? Please?

The key will be getting pitch counts up or pitchers in trouble where both Collins and Mattingly may make a move to the pen early in a high leverage spot. Not that the list of names coming out of the pen above are any less scary, but it is at least unfamiliar ground, and maybe an opportunity to leverage matchups. In a series where I though the right-handed bats would be the key to the Mets success, it is has been the lefties that have carried the bulk of the offense. They may have to do it again against Greinke. The struggling Lucas Duda took Kershaw to the warning track in Game 4, and he tends to be unconscious when he gets hot. Conversely, the Dodgers lefties, outside of Gonzalez, haven't done much in the series to speak of. DeGrom and Greinke are tough on everyone, but both have a bit of a split, so it may come down to which southpaw can get a pitch to drive with men on base, assuming anyone can get on base.

Jeffrey Paternostro is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @jeffpaternostro
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