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October 12, 2015 Playoff ProspectusPECOTA Odds and NLDS Game 3 Previews
Cardinals/CubsWith the series knotted at one, the Cubs bring their ace to the mound as the Cardinals counter with an arm who’s struggled against the North Siders’ lineup of late. St. Louis Cardinals (Michael Wacha) at Chicago Cubs (Jake Arrieta), 6:07 p.m. Eastern PECOTA odds of winning: 58% Cubs, 42% Cardinals Projected Starting Lineups
Injuries/Availability: Molina’s thumb has been a topic of discussion during the playoffs, especially after he looked bad at the plate in Game One. However, the Cardinals leader looked much better on Saturday night, ripping a single to the opposite field and driving another hard-hit ball in a previous at-bat in a 1-for-3 night. Matt Holliday has also looked more comfortable at the plate after spending most of September struggling while working his way back from a hamstring injury. Both bullpens were used quite a bit on Saturday, but with the off day, it’s unlikely any key pieces will be unavailable. With Arrieta on the mound for the Cubs, it’ll take quite a bit for Maddon to even call over to his ‘pen any earlier than the eighth inning. Outlook: Neither lineup should be etched in stone, as both managers have already used a variety of players to start games off in the playoffs. Tommy Pham has been hitting the ball well and could find himself getting his first playoff start, and Mark Reynolds was launching balls all over and out of Wrigley during Sunday’s workout. It’s expected to be a windy day in Chicago once again, so Mike Matheny may want to take advantage of Reynolds’ power while he can. Austin Jackson started each of the last two times the Cubs faced Wacha, but that could just be the randomness of Maddon wanting to get Fowler a day off during the regular season, or perhaps there’s something the Cubs skipper likes about the matchup. The lefty La Stella could be in there as well, but we know Maddon likes Castro against Wacha, Bryant certainly isn’t sitting, and the assumption here is that the Cubs will want to keep Soler’s bat in the lineup after a big Saturday and make sure Schwarber is back in there as well. As far as the game goes, on paper this looks like a big mismatch, and PECOTA agrees. The Cardinals haven’t faced Arrieta since July 7th, and while the Cy Young contender was still impressive back then, he hadn’t really hit his second-half stride. That should be an advantage for the big righty. Arrieta remembers how crazy Wrigley was when St. Louis came to town in mid-September. The intensity of the home crowd will only be amplified in the playoffs, and after taking two of three in each of the last two series the Cubs have had with the Cardinals, their confidence is at an all-time high. “We know we can play with anybody, and I think we're a pretty scary team for anybody to play right now,” Arrieta said on Sunday. “We've got nothing to lose. We're playing well. We've got a lot of young guys with a lot of tremendous energy. You know, I don't think our young players are fazed by October at all; I really don't. You see the plays that Addison has made at shortstop, you see the things that Schwarber has been able to do. IN the wild card game in the first inning, that huge base hit to score Dexter put us on the board in the first, just kind of swung the momentum in our favor, so I think we're going to be tough to beat. We know St. Louis is a great club. They have been for a long time. We have a lot of respect for them. But I like our chances.” And if you’ve been paying attention to how the Cubs have handled Wacha of late, you should too. In late June, Wacha shut down the Cubs bats, allowing just one run in six innings. Just two weeks later, he was cruising with a 4-0 lead in the fourth. But the Chicago offense woke up in that inning, scoring two runs, and then chased Wacha a few innings later by putting up a three spot. Since then, the Cubs have seemed to have the young Cardinal’s number.
Outside of the seven strikeouts in the second start, nothing from those lines looks particularly appealing. The Cubs jumped on Wacha early in both starts, and though both games ended up closer than they probably should have been (8-5 and 5-4 wins by the Cubs), in neither game did the Cardinals have to face Arrieta. But we’ve seen great starters have problems on the mound in the playoffs before. Clayton Kershaw has dominated an entire season then struggled against these very Cardinals. David Price may have been the hottest pitcher down the stretch outside of Arrieta, and he faltered against Texas just a few days ago. We know weird things can happen in the playoffs, and Arrieta does as well. “I think that your weaknesses and your mistakes are exposed at a level maybe slightly above where they would be in the regular season,” Arrieta pointed out when asked about aces struggling in October. “Everybody's attention to detail, everybody's focus is at such a high level that when those little mistakes are made, the opposing lineups are able to capitalize on it, and a lot of the times, you know, David and Clayton, their stuff is so tremendous that they'll get away with mistakes. But it's a little bit different in October. It seems like everybody is in that sweet—their mentality is in that sweet spot where nothing—they're not really fazed by anything. Sometimes it happens with momentum changes in the game, the atmosphere, the crowd noise, but everybody is pretty locked in at this point in the season. And that's why the good teams still remain.” If there’s a team that’s capable of shocking everyone and making the completely unexpected happen, it’s certainly the Cardinals. But the Cubs aren’t about to just chalk this one up as a victory. They’re not looking forward to a possible clincher on Tuesday; as cliché as it is, they’ve been adamant about focusing on only the game that awaits them on that day. It’s been Maddon’s mantra all season. The Cardinals won’t be walked over in October, but they’ll face an uphill challenge on Monday evening. —Sahadev Sharma
Dodgers/Mets
Game Two featured another fantastic pitching duel that was overshadowed by the controversial slide by Chase Utley that fractured Ruben Tejada’s fibula and allowed the Dodgers to break the game open and even the series. As the series shifts to Citi Field, the Mets will have the clear advantage on the mound for the first time, when Matt Harvey toes the rubber opposite Brett Anderson.
PECOTA odds of winning: 66% Mets, 34% Dodgers
After Michael Cuddyer’s adventures in left field in Game One and Michael Conforto’s performance at the plate in Game Two, Terry Collins has considered going with the rookie in left field for Game Three, even with a left-hander on the mound. Juan Lagares is also in the mix to get the start in center, which would push Cespedes to left field.
Chris Mosch is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @chris_mosch
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