October 12, 2015

The Buyer's Guide

Jacob deGrom

by J.P. Breen

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Developmental or aging curves aren’t always helpful on the micro level. This type of large-scale data analysis shows overarching trends, which shapes the way we think about expected growth, but these curves are not unbreakable laws when it comes to individual players.

With that in mind, I have a soft spot for the players who defy expectations, the ones who somehow become major-league stars when they were nothing but mediocre prospects. Corey Kluber captured the hearts of many in 2013 and 2014. As recently as 2011, he posted a 5.56 ERA in Triple-A Columbus as a no-name 25-year-old, only to obliterate the league three years later and win the AL Cy Young Award. It wasn’t supposed to happen. But during a rain delay in Columbus one evening in 2011, the right-hander began experimenting with a sinker that revolutionized his game. That, as well as the introduction of a cutter, allowed him to ascend to elite status.

Jacob deGrom failed to crack the Mets’ top-10 prospect list in 2014. Not that he should have. The former ninth-round pick sat in the low-90s with his fastball and owned an ERA north of 4.50 the previous year, splitting time between Double-A and Triple-A. His pre-season writeup from Baseball Prospectus included the following assessment:

Sources aren’t sold that he’s a viable major-league starter, but he could find a home in the bullpen—where the 25-year-old arm could offer versatility, pushing the arsenal up a few ticks to work in bursts—or chew innings in a long relief/spot starter capacity.

Again, this is not quoted to criticize Jason Parks or the BP Prospect Team. At that moment in time, this assessment was accurate. Prospect lists only evaluate snapshots of a broader process.

But deGrom wasn’t supposed to challenge for the NL Rookie of the Year or become one of the best young pitchers in baseball. Then again, he wasn’t supposed to experience an uptick in velocity that saw him average 94.49 mph a year ago and 95.81 mph in 2015. His slider and changeup weren’t supposed to become above-average offerings as a starter, either.

That is what’s so fascinating about deGrom’s meteoric rise. Scouts across the league didn’t “miss” on the right-hander; instead, he has become something that no one foresaw, likely including deGrom himself. Part of it is probably because he mostly played shortstop in college and was still learning his craft in his mid-20s. But he also gained a couple of miles per hour on his fastball after tweaking his mechanics during a routine session in the majors with pitching coach Dan Warthen—a velocity increase that trickled down to his entire repertoire.

Suddenly, the 6-foot-4 hurler became borderline unstoppable. He jumped from an 18 percent strikeout rate in Triple-A to a stellar 25.5 percent in the majors. Guys aren’t supposed to magically get better in the big leagues. It’s the most difficult transition in the game.

And the most insane piece of this story is that deGrom has somehow gotten better in 2015. His velocity has jumped over a mile per hour. His strikeout rate has increased from 25.5 to 27.3 percent. His swinging-strike rate has improved almost a whole point to 12.7 percent. His command has sharpened, too, as shown by his minuscule 5.1 percent walk rate. Better run prevention has followed. His 2.54 ERA is his career-best, aside from a 2.43 ERA in A-ball back in 2012.

It’s difficult to appreciate just how good Jacob deGrom has become. Today’s game is saturated both with fireballing youngsters and with a depressed run environment, not to mention the future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw (yeah, I said it). Since the dawn of the Deadball Era, though, here is the complete list of pitchers who have compiled a better strikeout rate than deGrom with a walk rate better than his 5.1 percent:

Three things from the above table: (1) Pedro Martinez is peerless; (2) I didn’t expect Curt Schilling to appear on this list three times, which means I likely underestimated his dominance in the early part of the century; and (3) the fact that four pitchers, including deGrom, make this historical list is mindboggling. In the end, though, this is to suggest that Jacob deGrom has been incredible this year. The fact that the industry wasn’t convinced he could stick as a back-end starter prior to last season reflects the unlikelihood of his development.

The combination of a low walk rate and a high strikeout rate is possible because he induces a ton of swings. Unlike against high-strikeout guys like Francisco Liriano and Tyson Ross, where opposing hitters rarely swing and cause problems that way, deGrom’s propensity to pound the strike zone means the opposition is forced to swing early and often. The right-hander has the second-highest swing percentage (52.3) of any qualified starter—behind only Scherzer—which helps his efficiency and his effectiveness.

The narrative that his story creates is wonderful, but there’s ample evidence to suggest that what he’s doing is sustainable—well, evidence aside from his filthy arsenal on the mound. His 3.03 DRA ranks ninth among pitchers who threw at least 100 innings this year. Furthermore, his 78 cFIP projects him to be 22 percent above average in the future. Only nine starters have a better cFIP than deGrom. He also pitches most of his games at Citi Field, which had the third-worst run environment for hitters in Major League Baseball this year (it was the third-worst a season ago, too).

In short, the right-hander is one of the fascinating counterexamples to the developmental curve and the prospect projections. He wasn’t supposed to be, but he’s a stud.

BUYER’S ADVICE: BUY

When committing to a high-end pitcher, it’s important that the downside is minimal and the likelihood that he remains elite is high. Jacob deGrom checks both boxes. His stuff is electric, his traditional numbers made him a top-10 fantasy starter, his #flow is iconic, and his sabermetric statistics are top notch. He’s one of the rare starters that you’re willing to back the truck up to acquire in dynasty leagues. He’s also one of the rare starters that you avoid selling, even in a rebuild, as he’s only 27.

During the preseason, I predicted that deGrom would finish in the top three of the NL Cy Young race. He might not—thanks to the brilliance of Kershaw, Arrieta, and Scherzer—but that’s more a reflection of the quality of his competition. He’s still legit, no matter which way you slice it, and I’ll be “all-in” once again in 2016.

J.P. Breen is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @jp_breen
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