October 7, 2015

Rubbing Mud

Jake Arrieta Isn't Wearing A Cape

by Matthew Trueblood

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There’s been a fair amount of discussion about who will be this year’s Madison Bumgarner in the playoffs. Though understandable, such talk is just this side of aggressively insane. While there will be some pitcher who becomes a huge story nearly every October (Michael Wacha in 2013, Matt Cain in 2012, Chris Carpenter in 2011, Cliff Lee in 2010, CC Sabathia in 2009, Cole Hamels in 2008, see, I’m not kidding), there’s almost never a Madison Bumgarner. What Bumgarner did last fall was in league with just a few of the greatest runs on which pitchers have ever finished a season and postseason, alongside Orel Hershiser and Randy Johnson.

Instead of talking so much about who this year’s Bumgarner might be, then, let’s ask this: Who might be this year’s Kris Medlen?

The first Wild Card Game ever played was the one between the Braves and Cardinals in Atlanta, on October 5, 2012. Entering that game, Medlen had made 12 starts in 2012, after starting the season in the bullpen. In those 12 starts, Medlen’s ERA was 0.97. He’d pitched 83 2/3 innings, struck out 84 of 309 opposing batters, walked 10, allowed 11 runs (nine earned), and held opponents to a .191/.218/.265 batting line. Notably, the Braves had won not only all 12 of those starts, but the last 11 he’d made before that (in 2010; Tommy John surgery stole all the time in between). I started a blog that week (at first called Arm Side Run, now folded archivally into Banished to the Pen), and the title of the first post I wrote there was: “How the Cardinals Can Beat Kris Medlen.” There was an aura of utter invincibility around Medlen at that time.

Of course, the Cardinals punctured that. Medlen sailed through the order the first time that night, but the top of the fourth went: single, error (on would-be double play; the game turned there), RBI double, RBI groundout, sacrifice fly, lineout. Three runs hit the board, as the Cardinals attacked faster than Medlen and personal catcher David Ross could figure out a counterpunch. The Cards were diving out over the plate and hitting Medlen’s sinker, hard. Matt Holliday homered off Medlen in the sixth, and two more Braves errors led to two more Cardinals runs in the seventh. The Braves got a three-run homer from Ross, who was starting mostly to caddy Medlen, but lost 6-3.

Medlen didn’t pitch terribly that night. He wasn’t at his best, but his defense was the source of the implosion. Still, the Cardinals went in with a game plan and executed it well enough to beat the theretofore unbeatable. Medlen made enough of his own mistakes to open the door even wider than his teammates’ mistakes had left it. The Cardinals marched methodically through the breach each time.

Jake Arrieta is the guy wearing Medlen’s hand-me-downs this year, though obviously he’s pitching even better than Medlen did during that stretch. Then again, flash back to last season, and Clayton Kershaw was pitching just about as well as Arrieta did in the second half.

Final 12 Regular-Season Starts, Clayton Kershaw (2014) and Jake Arrieta (2015)

There’s a meaningful gap even here, but you get the idea. Kershaw was the best pitcher in baseball, at the height of his powers, entering last October. He got knocked around by the Cardinals, too, surrendering 11 runs in two starts. It really can happen. Of course, Kershaw also fanned 19 of the 51 Cardinals he walked in that series, walked just two, and gave up three home runs. It took good timing and good fortune and too slow a hook from Don Mattingly for the Cardinals to beat Kershaw, just like it took a bunch of Braves errors to beat Medlen. Good pitchers don’t suddenly go south in the playoffs; they just get bad breaks. The teams they’re facing are too good to let those opportunities go to waste.

Arrieta isn’t immune to losing his handle on a moment; he just seems that way. The last time he pitched in Pittsburgh, he used up a lot of good juju and showed a lot of exposure between plates of armor. In the sixth inning, with the Cubs leading 2-0, Arrieta got the first two outs of the inning cleanly, but Gregory Polanco then collected an infield single. Polanco stole second base immediately (Arrieta is poor at holding on runners), so he was in perfect position to take advantage when Starling Marte hit a groundball right back to Arrieta. On a long lob, Arrieta put the ball somewhere on the other side of Anthony Rizzo, allowing Polanco to score. The inning might have gotten even messier, but for a brilliant throw by Rizzo and tag by Javier Baez at second base, nailing Marte to end the frame.

Then, in the bottom of the eighth, the first two batters to face Arrieta singled, and runners were on the corners with no one out. No problem; they were both infield singles. Still, Arrieta was very lucky that inning didn’t get away from him. The next batter, Josh Harrison, hit a ball to Baez that Baez turned (with a stunning throw) into an out at home plate. Arrieta lost Pedro Alvarez on a 3-2 count thereafter, loading the bases. Polanco bounced into what turned into an inning-ending double play, thanks to bad baserunning by Harrison, but another run scored even so. Arrieta had chances to make those innings much, much easier on himself, and he let them slip away.

Maybe no such moments will elude him on Wednesday night. If that be the case, the Pirates stand little chance, because this is the best pitcher in baseball right now. The fact that Arrieta carries that honorific, though, shouldn’t be cause to wonder if he’s the next Bumgarner. That title isn’t a shield, and even recent history offers examples of pitchers who seemed invincible being beaten on a few bad hops and a mistimed mistake. Arrieta should focus on not becoming the next Medlen, before he sets any other goal.

Matthew Trueblood is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @MATrueblood
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