October 7, 2015

Playoff Prospectus

WC Recap: A Game of Hinch's

by R.J. Anderson

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Heading into this year's edition of the American League Wild Card Game, you had to appreciate that the upstart Astros' first postseason opponents were the Yankees, the team that for much of the past two decades has served as the American League's gatekeeper; the narratives about new versus old spread themselves. Another contrast you had to appreciate was the out-of-style starting-pitcher matchup. On the eve of Jake Arrieta and Gerrit Cole trading flame-emoji heaters, the Astros and Yankees started two pitchers who in the game combined for one pitch clocked above 95 mph, according to PITCHf/x data.

Yes, Masahiro Tanaka can technically touch the mid-90s, but he pitches as if he couldn't. During the regular season, he threw more splitters and sliders than four-seamers and sinkers. Dallas Keuchel, Tanaka's bearded counterpart, averaged around 90 mph. He atoned for that with movement, location and a generous mix of cutters and breaking balls. Fittingly, both pitchers served as the main pregame talking points: Could Tanaka keep a powerful Houston lineup in the ballpark? And how would Keuchel look pitching on three days' rest for the first time?

Turns out, each pitcher served as the main in-game stories for their teams, too.

***

Tanaka was the first to take the mound, beginning the night's activities with a splitter, and was also the first to find trouble. With Colby Rasmus leading off the second inning, Tanaka and catcher Brian McCann agreed on a fastball down and away. Tanaka missed his spot by a plate width, delivering the pitch on the inner half and at Rasmus' knees. No big deal, right? Except Rasmus swung, got his barrel on the ball, and delivered it deep into the right-field bleachers for a home run. According to most announcers, every left-handed hitter likes the ball down and in. That's actually the case for Rasmus, whose seasonal heat map reveals he does some of his best slugging in that neighborhood:

The trouble wouldn't stop there for Tanaka, either. Later in the second, he loaded the bases with consecutive walks before escaping without allowing a run. Tanaka would yield leadoff extra-base hits in the third (a George Springer double) and fourth (a Carlos Gomez home run on a poor slider) before settling in and getting through five innings of two-run ball. It wasn't a pretty start, but it could have been much worse for Tanaka, given how the Astros failed to cash in on other opportunities.

***

With two runs on the board, it was up to Keuchel to make the lead stick. He did.

Much has and will be made about Jason Castro's presentation behind the plate. But let's not forget to credit the game plan and execution on both ends of the battery. Keuchel and Castro discovered the wide plate early, and continued to milk it all night. Soon the Yankees were doing un-Yankee things at the plate: expanding their zone, swinging at pitches early in the count to avoid two-strike situations, and offering at poor pitches. What's more is the pair kept the Yankees' brains busy by changing speeds and looks—here's a sinker away, now a cutter in, then a breaker . . . —until they were frozen with thought.

Though that seems complex, Keuchel really followed Ray Miller's old formula. He threw strikes, changed speeds, and worked fast. By the time Keuchel exited, after six innings, it was hard to believe he'd accumulated seven strikeouts, and harder yet to believe he'd allowed four baserunners. How could he have when it felt like he hadn't been on the mound for more than a half-hour, tops? He pitched as if he were in a race against the clock.

Still, there was a moment late in Keuchel's start where it seemed as though time had bypassed him. It's a moment that felt pivotal at the time and—if the Astros go on to defeat the Royals and make a deep postseason run—will be christened as The Moment. Keuchel had just allowed a single to Carlos Beltran that put two on with two out. With Alex Rodriguez due up and Chad Qualls warming, A.J. Hinch ducked out of the dugout and headed to the mound, presumably to lift his tired starter.

Yet Hinch did not remove Keuchel. He talked to him, asking him God knows what questions and receiving God knows what answers. They must've been the right ones, because Hinch left Keuchel in. A pitch later, the decision was validated. Keuchel didn't make his finest pitch—it was an 87-mph cutter up and over the plate—but all Rodriguez could do with it was hit it high and into center field for a routine fly out. Crisis averted.

***

Once the bullpens entered the equation, the run-scoring environment declined further. That was to be expected, as the Astros exited the regular season with the best bullpen DRA in the majors; meanwhile, Joe Girardi skipped his shaky middle-relief bunch in favor of using his stellar end-game trio across the game's final four frames. Only one other run scored on the night, and that came on a curious sequence of events during the seventh inning.

Here's how it went down. Dellin Betances walked Chris Carter, who was then lifted for Jonathan Villar. Villar, in turn, stole second base off McCann's weak arm. Jose Altuve then did unthinkable by notching a single on a Betances' curveball—a pitch that batters hit .103 against on the season. What made Altuve's hit more impressive is where the pitch was located—down and off the plate away:

Villar scampered home and that made it 3-0; that score made the Astros the first team to record a victory this postseason.

R.J. Anderson is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @r_j_anderson
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