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October 7, 2015

Transaction Analysis

Monday, He Lost the Team on Monday

by R.J. Anderson

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IN THIS ISSUE

American League
National League

ANAHEIM ANGELS
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart
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Named Billy Eppler general manager. [10/5]

On the surface, the Angels' GM job appears to be one of the most attractive in the sport. Whoever holds the reins inherits the best player in baseball, a prideful owner willing to spend enormous amounts of money to win, an iconic manager with a championship ring, and a roster that fell just short of the postseason. How often do jobs with those qualities become available? Not often enough, as far as GM hopefuls are concerned. Yet there was a reason, two actually, why many around the game considered the Anaheim job to be less desirable than the one in Philadelphia: Mike Scioscia and Arte Moreno.

Every GM is in for a headache whenever his owner and manager are too intrusive for their own good (as above, so below). Perhaps it's by design then that the Angels settled on a former Yankees exec to referee the never-ending strategical tug of war. After all, who would know better about managing and resolving conflict than someone who served as Brian Cashman's top assistant the past four years? The hope is that Eppler's varied evaluative talents—he's a former collegiate pitcher who is known to dabble into analytics—and personality will mesh better with Scioscia and Moreno than Jerry Dipoto's did. (One presumes he'd be wise to avoid mentioning how the Angels picked Dipoto over him in 2011.)

Provided Eppler does prove to be a better fit, the Angels have a chance to build an interesting team. He'll need to figure out what to do behind the plate, at the hot corner, and with the pitching staff before spring arrives. If Eppler can find the right answers to those questions, the Angels will find themselves playing important games all the way up to the last series of next season, too—and perhaps beyond.

MIAMI MARLINS
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart
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Re-signed OF-L Ichiro Suzuki to a one-year deal worth $2 million with a $2 million club option. [10/6]

What a week for Ichiro. Days following his pitching debut, he signs a new contract worth the same as his previous pact—this after a season in which he hit like, well, a pitcher.

There are two ways to view this deal. From a baseball perspective, it's rotten. This is Wade Boggs with the Devil Rays all over again, to the extent that you wonder if the Marlins intend to retire his number sometime after he collects his 3,000th hit. There's nothing wrong with teams co-opting or embracing milestone chases, but there has to be a facade of prioritizing winning; otherwise it comes across as a cheap PR stunt, as this signing does. It doesn't help that the Marlins have earned a bad reputation over the years on these things, nor that Ichiro ended the season with the sixth-highest salary on the roster.

The second-best defense of this contract is that the Marlins moved as quickly after the 2013 season to lock in Greg Dobbs. You could conclude the Fish might just have a thing for veteran pinch-hitter types. Alas, Dobbs a) outhit Ichiro (by nearly 20 points of True Average) in the preceding season and b) didn't receive $2 million or a club option, thus rendering the deals almost incomparable.

What's then is the best defense of this deal? That, from a fan's perspective, it's cool. Terms like one of a kind are used too often to sustain meaning, but Ichiro is one of a kind. His uniqueness has gifted baseball fans with countless amounts of joy and entertainment over the past decade and a half, so if he wants to hang on for another season (or two) to conquer some big, round number then why should we object—because he could lower his career rate statistics? Please. Besides, Ichiro didn't force the Marlins to pay him, nor will he force them to play him. He's doing what anyone in his predicament would have done—heck, at this very second Johnny Damon is probably searching for Jeffrey Loria's number.

If you find yourself in the first camp, you have every right to see this as a transparent merchandise and advertising cash grab. If you find yourself in the second camp, you still see it that way—you can just forgive it since it makes Ichiro happy. And hey, maybe he'll find a way to summon that old magic and make us happy a few more times before he retires.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart
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Fired manager Matt Williams. [10/5]

Why do managers of winning teams get fired? More often than not, the dismissal stems from their teams failing to meet expectations, which, in turn, begets talk about how they lost their clubhouses. Both statements apply to Williams, but he did one better by allowing his franchise player to get choked in broad view without handing down an immediate and meaningful punishment to the choker.

This much is certain: Williams' Nationals failed to deliver on their preseason-favorite status. They never led the division by more than five games, and they never regained the lead after losing it in early August. Soon thereafter, reports began to surface that Williams had indeed lost the clubhouse. If it wasn't a foregone conclusion by then that he was a goner at season's end, it became one after Jonathan Papelbon placed his hands on Bryce Harper's throat before later entering the game. To think, we haven't even addressed how Williams' role in the Drew Storen mess, or his at-times odd tactical decisions. Oof.

Perhaps Williams is meant to serve as a cautionary tale for contenders considering hiring first-time managers—not every transition goes as well as Mike Matheny's did in St. Louis. Based on the trend of teams hiring the opposite of their previous skipper, you have to assume the Nationals won't make the same mistake again, and will instead select someone with previous experience. For Mike Rizzo's sake, you hope Bud Black is open to spending his summers on the east coast.

As for Williams, he's likely to land on another team's coaching staff. Failure is the world's greatest teacher, and he has plenty to study and learn from his D.C. tenure. The good news for Williams is the list of skippers who did better on their second try is longer than the list of those who nailed it on their first. The bad news is his next managing opportunity might be a few years away.

R.J. Anderson is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see R.J.'s other articles. You can contact R.J. by clicking here

Related Content:  Matt Williams,  Ichiro Suzuki,  Billy Eppler

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Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: End... (10/07)
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Transaction Analysis: ... (10/05)
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