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April 12, 2004 Marginal Payroll/Marginal Wins1990-1994Capping his series on the top teams in terms of marginal dollars spent per marginal win, Doug Pappas today examines the 1990 to 1994 seasons. Click here to read the introduction to this series and the 1977 to 1979 seasons, here for 1980 to 1984, and here for 1985 to 1989. For a breakdown of the 1995 to 2003 seasons, pick up a copy of the best-selling Baseball Prospectus 2004.Table 14. Marginal Payroll/Marginal Win, 1990
Team W L Pct Marg 8/31 MLB Marginal Marginal $/
Wins Payroll Payroll Marginal Win
Baltimore 76 85 0.472 27.9 $8,087,702 $5,287,702 $189,713
Boston 88 74 0.543 39.4 $22,848,698 $20,048,698 $508,850
Cleveland 77 85 0.475 28.4 $15,394,298 $12,594,298 $443,461
Detroit 79 83 0.488 30.4 $17,848,737 $15,048,737 $495,024
Milwaukee 74 88 0.457 25.4 $18,453,999 $15,653,999 $616,299
NY Yankees 67 95 0.414 18.4 $20,592,948 $17,792,948 $967,008
Toronto 86 76 0.531 37.4 $18,193,500 $15,393,500 $411,591
California 80 82 0.494 31.4 $21,960,389 $19,160,389 $610,203
Chi WSox 94 68 0.580 45.4 $11,462,310 $8,662,310 $190,800
Kansas City 75 86 0.466 26.9 $23,617,090 $20,817,090 $774,854
Minnesota 74 88 0.457 25.4 $14,162,299 $11,362,299 $447,335
Oakland 103 59 0.636 54.4 $22,669,834 $19,869,834 $365,254
Seattle 77 85 0.475 28.4 $12,591,199 $9,791,199 $344,761
Texas 83 79 0.512 34.4 $12,803,035 $10,003,035 $290,786
Chi Cubs 77 85 0.475 28.4 $13,831,702 $11,031,702 $388,440
Montreal 84 77 0.522 35.9 $16,472,220 $13,672,220 $380,611
NY Mets 91 71 0.562 42.4 $22,229,333 $19,429,333 $458,239
Phldelphia 77 85 0.475 28.4 $14,156,000 $11,356,000 $399,859
Pittsburgh 95 67 0.586 46.4 $15,550,000 $12,750,000 $274,784
St. Louis 70 92 0.432 21.4 $19,647,498 $16,847,498 $787,266
Atlanta 65 97 0.401 16.4 $14,188,833 $11,388,833 $694,441
Cincinnati 91 71 0.562 42.4 $15,819,728 $13,019,728 $307,069
Houston 75 87 0.463 26.4 $18,229,781 $15,429,781 $584,461
LA 86 76 0.531 37.4 $20,943,107 $18,143,107 $485,110
San Diego 75 87 0.463 26.4 $16,718,332 $13,918,332 $527,210
San Fran 85 77 0.525 36.4 $22,456,224 $19,656,224 $540,006
The 1990 season opened a week late, thanks to a spring training lockout. The owners began by proposing a wage scale for all players with fewer than six years' seniority, with each player's compensation based entirely on statistics. This would have eliminated not just salary arbitration, but all individual contract negotiations for most players. The ultimate deal actually increased the number of players eligible for arbitration. In a year when Oakland won its third straight divisional title and the Red Sox, Mets and Dodgers all finished above .500 with veteran clubs, MLB's highest-salaried roster was...the Kansas City Royals. Owner Ewing Kauffman had signed free agent Mark Davis, the 1989 NL Cy Young Award winner, to close for 1989 AL Cy Young winner Bret Saberhagen, only to have both pitchers blow out their elbows. The Royals still spent more efficiently than the Yankees, who finished last for only the second time since 1912. Both NL divisions were won by efficient, low-payroll clubs: the Pirates of Barry Bonds and Bobby Bonilla, and the Reds and their "Nasty Boys" bullpen, who pulled off one of the unlikeliest World Series sweeps ever. Their large-market rivals, the Mets and Dodgers, were still paying for their 1988 titles. Table 15. Marginal Payroll/Marginal Win, 1991
Team W L Pct Marg Opening Day Marginal Marginal $/
Wins Payroll Payroll Marginal Win
Baltimore 67 95 0.414 18.4 $14,627,334 $14,347,334 $779,746
Boston 84 78 0.519 35.4 $32,767,500 $32,487,500 $917,726
Cleveland 57 105 0.352 8.4 $18,070,000 $17,790,000 $2,117,857
Detroit 84 78 0.519 35.4 $28,756,001 $28,476,001 $804,407
Milwaukee 83 79 0.512 34.4 $24,398,000 $24,118,000 $701,105
NY Yankees 71 91 0.438 22.4 $27,615,835 $27,335,835 $1,220,350
Toronto 91 71 0.562 42.4 $27,538,751 $27,258,751 $642,895
California 81 81 0.500 32.4 $31,782,501 $31,502,501 $972,299
Chi WSox 87 75 0.537 38.4 $16,630,457 $16,350,457 $425,793
Kansas City 82 80 0.506 33.4 $28,131,662 $27,851,662 $833,882
Minnesota 95 67 0.586 46.4 $22,331,000 $22,051,000 $475,237
Oakland 84 78 0.519 35.4 $36,332,500 $36,052,500 $1,018,432
Seattle 83 79 0.512 34.4 $16,126,834 $15,846,834 $460,664
Texas 85 77 0.525 36.4 $19,184,500 $18,904,500 $519,354
Chi Cubs 77 83 0.481 29.4 $26,813,120 $26,533,120 $903,640
Montreal 71 90 0.441 22.8 $20,208,500 $19,928,500 $872,488
NY Mets 77 84 0.478 28.9 $32,590,002 $32,310,002 $1,118,835
Phldelphia 78 84 0.481 29.4 $20,073,332 $19,793,332 $673,243
Pittsburgh 98 64 0.605 49.4 $23,064,667 $22,784,667 $461,228
St. Louis 84 78 0.519 35.4 $21,435,001 $21,155,001 $597,599
Atlanta 94 68 0.580 45.4 $18,923,500 $18,643,500 $410,650
Cincinnati 74 88 0.457 25.4 $25,069,166 $24,789,166 $975,951
Houston 65 97 0.401 16.4 $11,156,000 $10,876,000 $663,171
LA 93 69 0.574 44.4 $33,316,664 $33,036,664 $744,069
San Diego 84 78 0.519 35.4 $22,585,001 $22,305,001 $630,085
San Fran 75 87 0.463 26.4 $30,839,333 $30,559,333 $1,157,550
After the 1991 season, Commissioner Fay Vincent used his annual State of the Game address to declare: "The present salary situation is out of hand and small-market franchises cannot compete in this environment." This in a year when the Minnesota Twins won the World Series, the Pittsburgh Pirates won their second of three consecutive NL East titles, and the Yankees finished 20 games under .500! In fact, of the four division winners, only Pittsburgh had even the third-highest payroll in its division. Toronto and Minnesota ranked fourth, while Atlanta ranked fifth. On Opening Day, the Oakland Athletics had the majors' highest payroll, over $3 million more than anyone else's, as they paid the price for three years of dominance. Another quirk saw the entire AL West finish at .500 or above, with the Twins, White Sox and Mariners spending especially wisely. The Twins won the division easily; but in the annual Sporting News preseason poll of sportswriters, not only had the Twins been tabbed for last, they were the only AL club not to receive a single first-place vote. The Yankees and Mets threw money at their problems without success Table 16. Marginal Payroll/Marginal Win, 1992
Team W L Pct Marg Opening Day Marginal Marginal $/
Wins Payroll Payroll Marginal Win
Baltimore 89 73 0.549 40.4 $20,997,567 $17,945,567 $444,197
Boston 73 89 0.451 24.4 $42,203,584 $39,151,584 $1,604,573
Cleveland 76 86 0.469 27.4 $8,111,166 $5,059,166 $184,641
Detroit 75 87 0.463 26.4 $25,557,834 $22,505,834 $852,494
Milwaukee 92 70 0.568 43.4 $30,253,668 $27,201,668 $626,767
NY Yankees 76 86 0.469 27.4 $34,462,834 $31,410,834 $1,146,381
Toronto 96 66 0.593 47.4 $42,663,666 $39,611,666 $835,689
California 72 90 0.444 23.4 $33,529,834 $30,477,834 $1,302,472
Chi WSox 86 76 0.531 37.4 $27,813,500 $24,761,500 $662,072
Kansas City 72 90 0.444 23.4 $31,783,834 $28,731,834 $1,227,856
Minnesota 90 72 0.556 41.4 $27,432,834 $24,380,834 $588,909
Oakland 96 66 0.593 47.4 $39,657,834 $36,605,834 $772,275
Seattle 64 98 0.395 15.4 $22,204,834 $19,152,834 $1,243,691
Texas 77 85 0.475 28.4 $28,245,667 $25,193,667 $887,101
Chi Cubs 78 84 0.481 29.4 $29,435,833 $26,383,833 $897,409
Montreal 87 75 0.537 38.4 $15,869,667 $12,817,667 $333,793
NY Mets 72 90 0.444 23.4 $44,464,002 $41,412,002 $1,769,744
Phldelphia 70 92 0.432 21.4 $23,804,834 $20,752,834 $969,759
Pittsburgh 96 66 0.593 47.4 $32,589,167 $29,537,167 $623,147
St. Louis 83 79 0.512 34.4 $26,634,836 $23,582,836 $685,548
Atlanta 98 64 0.605 49.4 $32,975,333 $29,923,333 $605,735
Cincinnati 90 72 0.556 41.4 $25,203,999 $22,151,999 $535,072
Houston 81 81 0.500 32.4 $13,352,000 $10,300,000 $317,901
LA 63 99 0.389 14.4 $43,788,136 $40,736,136 $2,828,898
San Diego 82 80 0.506 33.4 $27,454,167 $24,402,167 $730,604
San Fran 72 90 0.444 23.4 $32,488,168 $29,436,168 $1,257,956
The 1992 Cleveland Indians marked Bill James' low point as a prognosticator. The Tribe had gutted their roster, trading or letting go every high-salaried veteran. James wrote in The Baseball Book 1992 that the Indians had "become the first team to abandon the hope of paying a competitive salary to a quality player." Not exactly. GM John Hart was quietly assembling a phenomenal core of young hitters: Albert Belle, Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez, Kenny Lofton, Carlos Baerga, Sandy Alomar Jr. Even before they were eligible for salary arbitration, Hart locked them up with long-term contracts, most including club-option years. The Indians' payroll rose as these players gained seniority, and the Tribe lay waste to the AL Central, winning five consecutive division titles between 1995 and 1999. The 1992 season was a dismal one for the usual large-market suspects. Boston, Los Angeles and the two New York clubs each finished at least 10 games below .500, with the 63-99 Dodgers becoming the first club ever to spend over $2 million per marginal win. Both AL divisions were won by the club with the highest payroll--but the champions were the Blue Jays and Athletics, with Toronto winning the World Series and drawing over 4 million fans to SkyDome. 17. Marginal Payroll/Marginal Win, 1993
Team W L Pct Marg Opening Day Marginal Marginal $/
Wins Payroll Payroll Marginal Win
Baltimore 85 77 0.525 36.4 $26,914,000 $23,862,000 $655,549
Boston 80 82 0.494 31.4 $36,608,583 $33,556,583 $1,068,681
Cleveland 76 86 0.469 27.4 $15,717,667 $12,665,667 $462,251
Detroit 85 77 0.525 36.4 $36,548,166 $33,496,166 $920,224
Milwaukee 69 93 0.426 20.4 $22,948,834 $19,896,834 $975,335
NY Yankees 88 74 0.543 39.4 $40,405,000 $37,353,000 $948,046
Toronto 95 67 0.586 46.4 $45,747,666 $42,695,666 $920,165
California 71 91 0.438 22.4 $27,230,334 $24,178,334 $1,079,390
Chi WSox 94 68 0.580 45.4 $34,568,166 $31,516,166 $694,189
Kansas City 84 78 0.519 35.4 $39,802,666 $36,750,666 $1,038,154
Minnesota 71 91 0.438 22.4 $27,284,933 $24,232,933 $1,081,827
Oakland 68 94 0.420 19.4 $35,565,834 $32,513,834 $1,675,971
Seattle 82 80 0.506 33.4 $31,461,333 $28,409,333 $850,579
Texas 86 76 0.531 37.4 $35,604,959 $32,552,959 $870,400
Chi Cubs 84 78 0.519 35.4 $38,303,166 $35,251,166 $995,796
Florida 64 98 0.395 15.4 $18,196,545 $15,144,545 $983,412
Montreal 94 68 0.580 45.4 $14,881,334 $11,829,334 $260,558
NY Mets 59 103 0.364 10.4 $38,350,167 $35,298,167 $3,394,055
Phldelphia 97 65 0.599 48.4 $26,812,334 $23,760,334 $490,916
Pittsburgh 75 87 0.463 26.4 $24,240,670 $21,188,670 $802,601
St. Louis 87 75 0.537 38.4 $22,615,334 $19,563,334 $509,462
Atlanta 104 58 0.642 55.4 $38,131,000 $35,079,000 $633,195
Cincinnati 73 89 0.451 24.4 $42,851,167 $39,799,167 $1,631,113
Colorado 67 95 0.414 18.4 $8,829,000 $5,777,000 $313,967
Houston 85 77 0.525 36.4 $28,854,500 $25,802,500 $708,860
LA 81 81 0.500 32.4 $37,833,000 $34,781,000 $1,073,488
San Diego 61 101 0.377 12.4 $25,557,333 $22,505,333 $1,814,946
San Fran 103 59 0.636 54.4 $34,567,500 $31,515,500 $579,329
The 1993 season brought MLB's first expansion since 1977. The changes free agency had wrought in MLB's economics soon became apparent. Like earlier expansion clubs, the Colorado Rockies and Florida Marlins had to stock their rosters from scratch; unlike those predecessors, they could hasten their path to respectability by signing free agents. Florida signed Charlie Hough, Dave Magadan and Benito Santiago; Colorado inked Andres Galarraga, who hit an altitude-assisted .370. The Rockies made the playoffs in 1995, the Marlins won the World Series in 1997, and neither club finished last in its first season. The Marlins could thank the New York Mets for keeping them out of the cellar. The year after being dubbed "the worst team money could buy" in a book by two local sportswriters, the Mets became the first club to pay over $3 million per marginal win. The NL's second-most expensive roster finished with the majors' worst record. The Braves and Giants had a pennant race for the ages in Barry Bonds' first season as a Giant, while the low-budget Expos came heartbreakingly close to catching the Phillies, who jumped from last place to the NL championship. In the AL West, Oakland, which had won four division titles in five years, plummeted from first place to last after trading Jose Canseco and letting Dave Stewart and Mike Moore leave as free agents. The White Sox rode their expensive lineup and good, cheap young pitching to the title. The AL East saw Boston spend a lot of money to little effect, the Yankees spend slightly more to better effect, and the Blue Jays spend even more to become MLB's first repeat World Series winner in 15 years. Table 18. Marginal Payroll/Marginal Win, 1994
Team W L Pct Marg Opening Day Marginal Marginal $/
Wins Payroll Payroll Marginal Win
Baltimore 63 49 0.563 42.5 $37,669,770 $34,617,770 $814,057
Boston 54 61 0.470 27.5 $36,334,083 $33,282,083 $1,211,598
Detroit 53 62 0.461 26.1 $42,707,500 $39,655,500 $1,521,649
NY Yankees 70 43 0.619 51.8 $44,785,334 $41,733,334 $806,379
Toronto 55 60 0.478 28.9 $41,937,668 $38,885,668 $1,346,538
Chi WSox 67 46 0.593 47.5 $38,413,835 $35,361,835 $745,196
Cleveland 66 47 0.584 46.0 $28,480,167 $25,428,167 $552,552
Kansas City 64 51 0.557 41.6 $40,481,334 $37,429,334 $900,685
Minnesota 53 60 0.469 27.4 $27,641,500 $24,589,500 $898,007
Milwaukee 53 62 0.461 26.1 $23,375,513 $20,323,513 $779,848
California 47 68 0.409 17.6 $20,691,000 $17,639,000 $1,001,721
Oakland 51 63 0.447 23.9 $33,169,500 $30,117,500 $1,261,535
Seattle 49 63 0.438 22.3 $27,872,167 $24,820,167 $1,114,261
Texas 52 62 0.456 25.3 $32,423,097 $29,371,097 $1,161,154
Atlanta 68 46 0.596 48.0 $40,502,167 $37,450,167 $779,699
Florida 51 64 0.443 23.2 $20,275,500 $17,223,500 $741,004
Montreal 74 40 0.649 56.6 $18,640,000 $15,588,000 $275,611
NY Mets 55 58 0.487 30.2 $29,890,324 $26,838,324 $887,230
Phldelphia 54 61 0.470 27.5 $31,422,000 $28,370,000 $1,032,779
Chi Cubs 49 64 0.434 21.6 $35,717,333 $32,665,333 $1,508,946
Cincinnati 66 48 0.579 45.2 $39,826,333 $36,774,333 $813,781
Houston 66 49 0.574 44.4 $32,041,500 $28,989,500 $653,301
Pittsburgh 53 61 0.465 26.7 $20,265,500 $17,213,500 $644,319
St. Louis 53 61 0.465 26.7 $28,956,001 $25,904,001 $969,614
Colorado 53 64 0.453 24.8 $22,979,000 $19,927,000 $804,007
LA 58 56 0.509 33.8 $37,194,000 $34,142,000 $1,009,490
San Diego 47 70 0.402 16.5 $13,529,333 $10,477,333 $635,879
San Fran 55 60 0.478 28.9 $40,054,300 $37,002,300 $1,281,320
The strike-shortened 1994 season was also the first in the current three-divisions-plus-Wild Card format. As MLB was happy to announce, doubling the number of teams qualifying for the playoffs gave many more teams a realistic shot at the postseason. This, in turn, increased the number of clubs looking to sign that one more free agent who might give them a better shot at playing into October, encouraging contenders to spend all the extra money generated by their increased attendance on players. MLB wasn't talking about that. Instead MLB was demanding that the players accept a salary cap that would have reduced player salaries by an average of 15%. The players refused. The owners didn't back down. Acting Commissioner for Life Selig canceled the postseason, vowing to start the 1995 season with replacement players if necessary to force the players to accept sub-market wages. Otherwise, how could small-market clubs ever hope to compete? Ask Montreal. The perennially impoverished Expos had the majors' best record when the season crashed to a halt. None of the Expos' regulars, and only one of their regular pitchers, was older than 28. The labor stoppage killed interest in baseball in Montreal, and Larry Walker, Moises Alou, Pedro Martinez and others all eventually went elsewhere. The strike also spared MLB the embarrassment of a sub-.500 division winner: George W. Bush's first-place Texas Rangers were 52-62 when the season ended.
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