September 14, 2015

The Buyer's Guide

Xander Bogaerts

by J.P. Breen

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Only four 22-year-old major-leaguers have been roughly three-win players in 2015:

Player	Team	WARP
Bryce Harper	Nationals	10.0
Manny Machado	Orioles	6.4
Mookie Betts	Red Sox	4.8
Xander Bogaerts	Red Sox	2.8

Harper has captured headlines across the baseball community this year with his historic level of performance. Machado has somewhat slid under the radar in 2015; however, more people are recognizing him as a bona fide superstar. Betts entered the season with lofty expectations, and although much of his value comes from his defense, his .289 TAv illustrates that he’s also been plenty above average with the bat.

Bogaerts, on the other hand, seems somewhat out of place on this list. Not only is he relatively forgotten due to his debut last year, but his lack of attractive counting stats has prevented him from being talked about on every sporting network. A .320 batting average is wonderful. The mere five home runs and seven stolen bases, though, inspire the “empty average” criticisms—that is, his average is lesser because it’s not supplemented with tangible power or speed.

That seems to make a certain amount of sense. His home run and stolen base totals are identical to those of Adeiny Hechavarria, which should prevent us from using any kind of “superstar” label on Bogaerts. Or, at least, that’s what one would think.

Two points:

(1) Xavier Bogaerts is currently the no. 1-ranked fantasy shortstop in ESPN leagues.

(2) In the Live Ball Era, Bogaerts’s 107 wRC+ is the 17th-best single-season mark among 22-year-old shortstops. That is, in almost 100 years of baseball history, Bogaerts has had a top-20 offensive season for a shortstop of his age.

The fact that Bogaerts is the top fantasy shortstop in the majors is indicative of how poor the offensive landscape is at the position and how important run stats can be in fantasy. Shortstops have steadily gotten worse at the plate in this decade. They’ve declined in power and speed, as the current crop of players have 104 fewer stolen bases than shortstops a year ago—which only decreases the collective fantasy production at the position, given the additional decreased on-base percentage.

Bogaerts ranks fourth among shortstops in runs scored and second in RBI. Thus, what appears to be an “empty average” isn’t empty at all in fantasy leagues. He’s a bona fide stud in three categories, and his seven stolen bases help him from being below average in two. Thus, his .263 TAv portrays an average offensive player, a measure that is perhaps accurate of his skills at the plate but something that hides his true fantasy value. Fantasy owners who rely on slash lines and HR/SB totals to make player valuations are missing a key component in standard rotisserie leagues. Bogaerts’s position in the Red Sox’s lineup bumps up his stock.

Furthermore, the 22-year-old shortstop is putting up one of the best seasons a 22-year-old shortstop has ever had in Major League Baseball. Arky Vaughn and Cal Ripken lead the pace by a wide margin; however, Bogaerts states his case just fine.

	Player	Team	Year	wRC+
1	Arky Vaughn	Pirates	1934	153
2	Cal Ripken	Orioles	1983	146
3	Vern Stephens	Browns	1943	140
4	Jim Fregosi	Angels	1964	136
5	Alex Rodriguez	Mariners	1998	135
6	Wil Cordero	Expos	1994	120
7	Joe Sewell	Indians	1921	119
8	Johnny Pesky	Red Sox	1942	119
9	Chris Speier	Giants	1972	118
10	Lou Boudreau	Indians	1940	117
11	Hanley Ramirez	Marlins	2006	116
12	Alan Trammell	Tigers	1980	115
13	Ron Hansen	Orioles	1960	115
14	Joe Cronin	Senators	1929	113
15	Robin Yount	Brewers	1978	111
16	Troy Tulowitzki	Rockies	2007	109
17	Xander Bogaerts	Red Sox	2015	107

That’s a quality list that includes six current Hall of Famers and another one or two, depending on the politics of one’s Hall of Fame qualifications. Being on the list doesn’t guarantee such a future for Xander Bogaerts; however, it should put his current season into serious perspective. Instead of equating him to someone pedestrian like Hechavarria, perhaps we should be acknowledging the awesomeness of his work at the plate in relation to his historical counterparts. Though, to be fair, it should be noted that Hechavarria has been a two-plus-win player in 2015 and shouldn’t be utilized in the negative fashion in which he’s been employed. He’s just four years older and only has a .249 TAv and is a different kind of player with a inferior ceiling.

This is all to say that the Red Sox’s shortstop has been severely underrated in both fantasy—where he’s only owned in 91 percent of leagues, which is ridiculous for the no. 1 fantasy player at a position—and in real baseball. The overall community has shifted its focus to the likes of Kris Bryant, Miguel Sano, Carlos Correa, and Corey Seager. That quartet is uber-talented. However, Xander Bogaerts has just put together one of the best full seasons a 22-year-old shortstop has done in the live-ball era, and few people seem to have noticed, or cared.

BUYER’S ADVICE: BUY

This lack of attention and the focus on his poor HR/SB totals should allow a savvy fantasy owner to swoop in and acquire a top-tier shortstop without the insane price tag. He showed double-digit capabilities with the long ball a year ago. In fact, he’d hit double-digit homers from 2011 to 2014. The idea that he’s limited to single digits is ridiculous. Expect the power to return in future seasons, which should only increase his overall fantasy value, vaulting him from underappreciated stud to elite. Xander Bogaerts is a great target in dynasty leagues, a guy with a tremendous ceiling who is somehow being treated as a mid-tier fantasy shortstop. He ain’t that. Grab him.

J.P. Breen is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @jp_breen
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