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September 10, 2015

Eyewitness Accounts

September 10, 2015

by Wilson Karaman and Colin Young

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Francis Martes
Jose Leclerc
Reed Garrett
Alex Bregman

Francis Martes


	Born: 11/24/1995 (Age: 19)
	Bats: Right	Throws: Right
	Height: 6' 1"	Weight: 225

Broad shoulders, wide hips, thick middle; mature, high-maintenance body type; fluid movement; generates early momentum, consistent posture through takeaway; aggressive leg kick can compromise balance, gets quick through early checkpoints; clean arm action, premium arm speed to a true three-quarters slot; hard downhill drive, gets extension from the rubber, hides the ball, firm foot strike with occasional recoil; lower half gets quick, will leave arm behind and lose pitches arm-side; easy deceleration, arm finishes clean; 1.09-1.22 home with a semi-slide step; quick feet to first, shows ability to control running game.

Evaluator	Wilson Karaman
Report Date	08/27/2015
Affiliate	Lancaster JetHawks (High A, Astros)
Dates Seen	7/24/15
OFP/Risk	70/High
Realistic	60
MLB ETA	2016
Video	Yes

Pitch Type	Present Grade	Future Grade	Sitting Velocity	Peak Velocity	Report
FB	60	70	92-95	98	Explosive pitch; above-average arm-side run, natural tailing action, late life; deception and extension help velocity play up; heavy pitch down in the zone, shows feel to elevate; present command limits utility to a plus pitch, minimal command refinement and consistency will push to a plus-plus weapon
CB	65	70	83-85	85	Hard curveball with slider-like velocity and movement; tight rotation, late 11-5 break; Plus-plus movement, repeats arm speed effectively; can work in zone or as a chaser, will front-door early and late in counts; ability to freeze hitters, tough pitch to identify out of the hand.
CH	45	55	87-88	89	Firm change with below-average separation but above-average tumble and moderate fade; plays well off fastball plane, consistent arm speed, shows feel; limited swing-and-miss potential, movement and feel suggest above-average projection as complimentary pitch.

Martes has frontline stuff in the form of two potential 70-grade pitches thanks to a powerful lower half and premium arm speed. His delivery is inconsistent pitch-to-pitch right now, and his firm foot strike and landing requires attention. But the physicality suggests ample room for projecting refinement and he already demonstrates an advanced feel for commanding the baseball in spite of his mechanical inconsistencies. There's above-average potential here for commanding what is already a nasty arsenal.

He's aggressive on the mound, pitching with swagger and moxie. With standard command improvement and the greater consistency that comes through repetition Martes has the potential to develop into a top-of-the-rotation starter, with a high floor at the back end of a Major League bullpen on the strength of a dynamic fastball-curve combination that could devastate in short bursts.

Jose Leclerc


	Born: 12/19/1993 (Age: 21)
	Bats: Right	Throws: Right
	Height: 6' 0"	Weight: 165

Fluid, easy leg lift, hand separation to max effort, violent finish leading to crossfire. Above-average arm speed at three-quarters arm slot. Clean, loose arm action. Tendency to head whack when overthrowing. Clean, strong drive towards plate, slightly closed at foot strike. Overall, smooth body motion and arm action with tendency to overthrow. Some timing issues with repeatability by missing balance point. Delivery times ranged from 1.22 to 1.47 with runners on.

Evaluator	Colin Young
Report Date	09/01/2015
Affiliate	Frisco RoughRiders (AA, Rangers)
Dates Seen	4/25; 5/28; 6/20; 7/16
OFP/Risk	50/Moderate
Realistic	45
MLB ETA	2017
Video	No

Pitch Type	Present Grade	Future Grade	Sitting Velocity	Peak Velocity	Report
Fastball	55	60	91	96	four-seam fastball with late life and arm side run; ball may cut when frontside opens early and arm comes through slot low; 45-grade command but can improve with less violent finish.
Curveball	50	60	73	74	12-6 shape with depth and sharp bite; tendency to slow down arm speed with curveball causing inconsistency with command
Changeup 1	40	45	82	83	Relatively flat change with a hint of arm side run; No plane change; Average command with a plus change in speed; Arm speed replication of fastball
Changeup 2	55	55	83	84	Cut changeup with plus tumble at plate; Arm speed replication of fastball but can have command issues and inconsistency; Slider like appearance to hitters

While Leclerc started off slowly as a starter this year he has shown flashes of excellence periodically throughout the season. This was very much a learning and maturation year for him as far as understanding his repertoire and his pitchability. He still has his moments of overthrowing and not trusting his body which leads to the elevation of pitches. When he stays within himself and works at a controlled pace he can be lights out. The name of the game for Leclerc is command and repeatability with his mechanics. The inconsistency and inability to string together quality starts is very concerning and signifies he may be better suited for the bullpen in the future. Leclerc's walk totals are too high to carry him through the 5th inning typically. He's the type of pitcher with plus stuff that can be more effective on an inning-to-inning basis.

Reed Garrett


	Born: 01/02/1993 (Age: 22)
	Bats: Right	Throws: Right
	Height: 6' 2"	Weight: 170

Balanced takeaway with posture, moderate leg kick; glove hand flies out to full extension, some deception; shallow arm action to high-three-quarters slot, average arm speed; inconsistent drive, drifts from rubber, velocity fluctuates; 1:18-1.34 to the plate.

Evaluator	Wilson Karaman
Report Date	09/06/2015
Affiliate	High Desert Mavericks (High A, Rangers)
Dates Seen	9/4/15
OFP/Risk	40/High
Realistic	30/org arm
MLB ETA	2017
Video	Yes

Pitch Type	Present Grade	Future Grade	Sitting Velocity	Peak Velocity	Report
FB	45	50	87-91	92	Straight pitch with some boring action, moderate deception, downhill plane; limited swing-and-miss, inconsistent command to glove-side, velocity fluctuates; fringe-average present pitch can play to average with improved consistency.
CH	45	55	78-82	82	Above-average fade and tumble, consistent arm speed, plus velocity separation; confidence in pitch, will throw right-on-right, double-up; works off fastball plane when he turns it over but inconsistent execution, will leave flat and wide arm-side.
SL	30	40	84-85	86	Short break, breaks early, minimal tilt, not a bat-misser.
CB	30	40	77-80	80	Show-me pitch, visible out of hand; 12-6 with some depth but lacks bite, arm slows a touch on delivery.

Garrett competes well and shows fire in his belly, but the stuff and command profile isn't quite enough to project a big-league career with confidence. His fastball is an average pitch with some inconsistency in execution, and while the change plays well off the fastball plane the breaking pitches lag and limit the ceiling.

Alex Bregman


	Born: 03/30/1994 (Age: 21)
	Bats: Right	Throws: Right
	Height: 6' 0"	Weight: 180
	Primary Position: SS
	Secondary Position:

Compact frame; athletic, well-filled out; developmentally maxed.

Evaluator	Wilson Karaman
Report Date	09/06/2015
Dates Seen	8/24, 8/28, 9/4
Affiliate	Lancaster JetHawks (High A, Astros)

MLB ETA	Risk Factor	OFP	Realistic Role	Video
2017	Low	55	50/solid regular	Yes

High energy, fierce competitor; top step guy, consistently engaged, can see the wheels turning between pitches; instinctual player with drive and self-confidence.

Tool	Future Grade	Report
Hit	60	Wide base, hands off back shoulder, bat waggle; minimal load, elite quickness in hands at trigger, above-average bat speed, mild leverage, premium barrel control; moderate stride, gets some separation; approach to right-center, maintains center of gravity, tracks well, can square up any offering, hand speed allows for in-swing adjustment.
Power	50	50 raw; mild-leverage, oppo approach with gap power in-game but will also turn and separate with greater leverage to pull side; looks to do damage to pull side.
Baserunning/Speed	55	Average or slightly better raw foot speed, 4.25-4.31 out of the box; quick to second gear, instincts and controlled aggressiveness on the bases help speed utility play up.
Glove	55	Gets low and aggressive at pitch, reads contact well, nimble first step; foot speed limits range, impressive mobility, quick actions, outstanding hands with give on receipt and strength in manipulating the glove; gets strong breaks back on pops over his head, comes across the bag clean on double play turns.
Arm	50	High-effort throwing motion, quick release with average arm strength and velocity, accurate, controls tailing action while moving away from target, ball gets some carry from the hole.

Bregman is a polished, confident player with solid across-the-board skills highlighted by a premium bat-to-ball ability and projection for a plus hit tool. His swing is aggressive; he attacks the baseball with an intent to do damage. He tracks pitches well, and the combination of strong wrists and elite hand quickness allow for in-swing adjustments, limiting the swing-and-miss in his game. There's average raw power here, and he'll get to it in games thanks to a timely willingness to separate and lift to the pull side. He's not a burner, but should offer some stolen base potential and above-average baserunning value.

Questions about his future at the six spot dogged Bregman through the draft, but I've seen a true shortstop in my looks thus far in his pro career. He lacks plus range or arm strength, but the actions will play and he demonstrates an instinctual feel for the position. The player's outstanding makeup should further afford benefit to any doubts.

This is a high probability prospect who should move quickly through the system, with a late-2016 big league ETA not out of the question.

Wilson Karaman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @vocaljavelins
Click here to see Wilson's other articles. You can contact Wilson by clicking here
Colin Young is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @OleGreyBeard
Click here to see Colin's other articles. You can contact Colin by clicking here

Related Content: Jose LeClerc, Alex Bregman, Francis Martes, Reed Garrett

6 comments have been left for this article.

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tearecrules

(85435)

Isn't the bigger issue for Alex Bregman remaining at SS that Carlos Correa plays the same position in the same organization? I know when Bregman was drafted Luhnow doesnplayed the issue with Bregman and Correa both being MLB-qualifty SS, but at some point one of them has to move.

Sep 10, 2015 07:50 AM

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Wilson Karaman

BP staff

(77207)

Well, a couple things there. One, the questions about his future position heading into the draft had nothing to do with practical organizational issues. He doesn't have plus range or arm strength, and that combo is usually a red flag for evaluators in projecting MLB-caliber shortstops. I think he does enough else well to assuage those concerns and player himself into a solid SS, and the high-end makeup is a significant mark in his developmental favor. But then more broadly, you cross that bridge when you come to it re: positional adjustment to accommodate organizational need. There's just absolutely no sense in changing an A-ball player's trajectory on account of the present big league roster construction. These things work themselves out, and if they don't you'll have that much more of a valuable finished product in Bregman and the best kind of problem to have.

Sep 10, 2015 08:00 AM

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Bellin Detances

(71724)

Thank you Kevin Goldstein for bringing us Francis Martes!

Sep 10, 2015 09:23 AM

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rating: 2

Bellin Detances

(71724)

http://blog.chron.com/ultimateastros/2015/09/08/astros-pro-scouting-strategy-hits-big-on-francis-martes-david-paulino/#photo-683867

Sep 10, 2015 09:26 AM

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rating: 2

JasonPennini

(74662)

RIP Kevin, inserts starting to cry emoji

Sep 10, 2015 09:54 AM

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rating: 4

Bellin Detances

(71724)

He gifted my dynasty team a 70 OFP pitcher from beyond the grave.

Sep 10, 2015 10:12 AM

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rating: 2

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