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August 31, 2015 The Buyer's GuideIan Desmond
Some players are notoriously slow starters, perennially spinning their wheels out of the gate, only to pick up steam in the second half. Savvy fantasy owners have long targeted these types of players after the first month or two of the season, capitalizing on their momentarily depressed value. I’m unsure if this is a statistically quantifiable phenomenon in baseball; however, it does seem to hold true for many players in the majors.
Adam LaRoche is the epitome of the second-half surger, a player who lulls us into a mistaken stupor, only to roar to life in the second half and re-establish himself as a fantasy asset. It hasn’t happened this year—as he’s only hitting .194/.237/.315 since the All-Star break—but I suspect that’s largely because he’s 35 years old and essentially done being a productive big-leaguer. Still, he owns a career 92 OPS+ in the first halves of seasons and a 110 OPS+ (.277/.344/.500) in the second halves.
Here are some other notorious late-bloomers, with first-half numbers on the left and second-half numbers on the right:
Some of these players recognize their penchant for slow starts, too. Back in 2013, Aramis Ramirez worked with the Brewers’ coaching staff to alter his traditional spring training routine in order to hit the ground running in April. Many articles from different years (samples one, two, and three) have explored Robinson Cano’s slow starts; even Mariano Rivera questioned Cano’s work ethic and commitment to being the best player he can be.
I don’t have enough information as to offer an explanation for these early-season struggles. Perhaps it’s merely random. Perhaps it has to do with offseason workouts and preparation. Perhaps it eventually seeps into one’s self-expectations, in which a player enters a season prepared to struggle in the first half and turn it on in the second. Perhaps it’s just a matter of playing enough games to click. Most likely, it’s a combination of many things. Ultimately, though, the reason is unclear, and from the article mentioned above on Aramis Ramirez, even the individual players seem to lack an understanding of why these long-term trends exist.
Ian Desmond is another top-tier fantasy player who historically underperforms in the first half, which induces panic from the fantasy community, and then tears up the league from July through September. Here are his career numbers, presented in the same way as the table above:
From the first to the second half, Desmond transforms himself from a mid-tier, frustrating fantasy shortstop—one who offers power, but drags a team down in several other categories—to a top-tier option. His strong second-half performances routinely propel his fantasy stock upward, too, so he ultimately becomes a top-three-round shortstop. He then struggles early in the year, owners panic, and savvy fantasy players can scoop up the 29-year-old to bolster a championship run in the second half.
That cycle has once again proven true in 2015. He butchered the early portion of the season, hitting .211/.255/.334 with seven homers and only five stolen bases. It caused one fantasy writer to suggest that Desmond was becoming one of the biggest busts of the season. Of course, almost like clockwork, the Nationals’ shortstop began raking after the All-Star Break. He’s hitting .288/.342/.541 in the second half with a 138 OPS+. He’s even been the 14th-best overall fantasy player over the last 30 days and the number-one fantasy shortstop in that span.
As displayed above, we’ve seen this before. I picked him up in a dynasty league for the second half a year ago and reaped the benefits, and I did so again this summer. It’s a bit of a gamble, I suppose, because the idea of a perennial “slow starter” doesn’t seem to have an overarching explanation upon which to fall back; however, it anecdotally seems to hold water. I’m not above taking a chance on something like this when the long-term trends back it up.
Although it has little to do with fantasy, the interesting question to me, though, is whether Desmond’s early-season struggles extend to his defensive work. I’m not aware of any sites that show month-by-month breakdowns of defensive statistics—if you do, please drop a line in the comments—but the negative talk surrounding his glovework has seemingly subsided since his disastrous April and May. For more information on this angle, R.J. Anderson had a lovely article on Desmond’s defensive mishaps in April. Give it a read.
It should also be noted that some of Desmond’s underlying peripheral statistics have improved from the first half to the second half. His walk rate has climbed from 4.9 percent to 7.5 percent. His ISO has more than doubled from .124 to .253. Additionally, his hard-hit percentage has jumped from 26.2 percent to 31.7 percent, and he’s been using the opposite field more often. Overall, the Florida native has improved drastically in the second half. His production won’t remain this lofty—note the .356 BABIP since the break—but it’s hardly a stretch to think that he can match his historical second-half numbers with a bit of a dropoff on balls in play.
This second-half surge shouldn’t have been a surprise. In fact, I’ve noted several times this year that we’ve seen this before from Desmond—that we’ve seen the early-season struggles and we’ve seen the late-season improvement. It’s about capitalizing on these long-term trends and identifying the right time to buy low and sell high.
BUYER’S ADVICE: BUY/SELL
I’m going to offer two different courses of action, depending on the type of league. If your league doesn’t have a trade deadline or has pushed it back to sometime in September, Desmond is absolutely someone to target on the trade market. It may be a little late to get rock-bottom prices, but top-tier production at the shortstop position isn’t easy to find. For me, it’s an easy call to inquire on Desmond and see what the price tag may be.
For leagues that have already seen their trade deadline pass, though, a different path may be preferable. Anticipating a potential sluggish early-season return in 2016, it may be wise to sell Desmond this winter and capitalize on his late-season hype, especially after he nets a lucrative contract in free agency. Then, if you’re a Desmond fan and are convinced that his second-half success is truly projectable to future seasons, target him on the trade market in May or June—assuming he does disappoint in the early 2016 campaign. It’s a bit of a dance, but moving pieces in and out in fantasy baseball is sometimes beneficial, as long as there’s a rhyme and a reason to the transactions.
J.P. Breen is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @jp_breen
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Nice read.
I don't know of a fielding splits site, but I am familiar with Desmond's April fielding woes so I went and found some specifics.
According to the Washington Post in April, he had committed 122 errors in his career, 30 in April. 7 or more errors in 3 of the 4 past Aprils (before this April, and he definitely hit that mark again having made 8 errors in his first 12 games).