The Prospectus Hit Lis... (08/14)
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August 14, 2015 Fantasy RoundersRolling Rox Gather No MossPlatoons Target: RHB's Evan Longoria 3B ($4100, +110 OPS and +.042 ISO career vs. LHP), Logan Forsythe 1B/2B ($3800, +180 OPS and +.107 ISO career vs. LHP), and Brandon Guyer OF ($3100, +98 OPS and +.048 ISO vs. LHP) against LHP Martin Perez ($4200, +86 OPS and +.048 ISO career vs. RHB) The Rays bring a completely different offense to the table against southpaws, one that has posted an OPS that is 73 points higher than when an opposing right-hander is on the mound. It's been a rough season for Longoria, but one in which he has continued to rip southpaws (.337/.425/.517); his bat has also started to heat up recently (1026 OPS in his last 15 games). Forsythe is the Ryan Raburn of the Rays, that is if Raburn played everyday, but the comparison holds when looking at complementary players who suddenly vault to cleanup hitters when an opposing lefty is on the mound. Forsythe has earned his place in the order with an OPS that is over 800 for his career against southpaws, including 18 of 31 career homers despite less than 35-percent of his plate appearances having come with the platoon advantage. Guyer is in a similar situation: though his plate appearances are pretty evenly split against lefties and righties, he has knocked eight of his 11 career homeruns when facing left-handers. Guyer has also found himself in the leadoff spot more often than any other place in the batting order, including 31 starts at the top of the lineup this season. At $4200 Perez is priced lower than a huge batch of hitters, as the low price is a reflection of both his ineffectiveness (a 5.81 ERA) and his brevity (averaging just 5.3 innings per start this season).
Steals Target: Charlie Blackmon OF ($4800, 30-of-40 SB this season), Jose Reyes SS ($4700, 18-of-23 SB) and D.J. LeMahieu 2B/3B ($4500, 17-of-20 SB) against RHP Tyson Ross ($8400, opponents 29-of-39 SB this season) Ross is second in the bigs in opponents' stolen bases attempted as well as those successfully swiped (Jon Lester leads both categories) and he's two thefts away from tying last season's 31 steals, which had set a personal high for Ross at the time. Blackmon gets particularly thief-like at home and against right-handers, so this particular matchup plays right into his hands even before considering the fact that Ross is giving up 1.63 steal attempts per game. Reyes has attempted five steals in his 13 games as a Rockie yet has only been successful on two of those attempts - he has already been caught more times as a member of the Rockies over the last two weeks than he did in half a season with Toronto. LeMahieu feels overpriced at $4500 but he just keeps producing, and his four steals in four attempts through his last eight starts is a positive indicator for the one stat on a player's baseball card over which he has the most control.
Recency Bias Target: LHB David Peralta OF ($3300) against RHP Julio Teheran ($7000) Last 14 games (12 starts): .471/.500/.706 in 54 plate appearances Peralta's cost is insanely low, especially for a player who is hitting .303/.368/.522 for the season and has the platoon advantage (career OPS is 258 points higher versus right-handers, including 200 points of additional slug) against a homer-prone pitcher. He would easily slot into the price section, particularly given that he has been a constant source of base hits for the past two weeks and that recent performance typically plays a role in tilting the scales of player salary. Peralta recently scored 17 or more points on DraftKings for a three day stretch, August 9-11, and though he is currently listed as day-to-day with a tight quad, if he plays then Peralta should be an automatic add to DFS rosters.
Avoid: LHB Brandon Moss 1B/OF ($3200) against RHP Tom Koehler ($6500) Last 28 Games (22 Starts): .143/.196/.187 with one homerun and one double in 97 plate appearances When Moss collapsed in the second half of the 2014 season, the cause was largely a mystery until it was revealed that he was playing with a bum hip that had effectively sapped his power. We haven't heard much about the hip this season, yet Moss has experienced an even worse – and just as sudden – downturn in his performance. The Cardinals surely did their homework with Moss' medical reports when they acquired him at the trade deadline from Cleveland, so perhaps he is just going through a mid-summer slump, but his disappearance down the stretch last season raises a brow of concern. At least the Cards can look forward to a sudden resurgence in October, reminiscent of his two-homer performance in the AL Wild Card game last season (assuming Groundhog Day rules, of course).
Price Target: Corey Kluber SP ($10600) against the Minnesota Twins It isn't often that I recommend a pitcher who is listed above $10k, but Kluber poses an exception to many rules (ask him about the appropriate age of breakout pitchers). He is arguably the most enticing arm on a slate that includes Max Scherzer ($14600 at SF), David Price ($12300 vs. NYY), and Dallas Keuchel ($11000 vs. DET). Kluber might be the most talented pitcher of the bunch and he is facing the weakest opponent, yet his salary comes in below that of the three priciest arms. The Twins offense has been firing on all cylinders recently, a factor which might be playing into the price tag of Kluber, but no amount of recency bias could lead to the idea that the Minnesota bats are more imposing than that of the Yankees or Tigers.
Avoid: LHB David Ortiz 1B ($5000) against LHP Mike Montgomery ($6800) After an entire career of posting extreme platoon splits (his career OPS is 160 points lower against left-handers), Big Papi changed course and ripped southpaws last season. It may have been a one-year blip, as this year Ortiz is hitting just .213/.233/.386 in 133 plate appearances against southpaws. Montgomery doesn't pose the most intimidating threat, but his left-handedness is enough to cast shade over the exorbitant price tag of David Ortiz. He might be on a hot streak, but even with the platoon advantage the $5k salary would feel steep; versus a left-hander, it's an easy decision to avoid Papi's services at that price.
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Resources used for this article: Baseball Prospectus Stats and Player Cards Draft Kings player prices
Doug Thorburn is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @doug_thorburn
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