August 10, 2015

The Buyer's Guide

Jose Quintana

by J.P. Breen

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The South Side is perennially overlooked in Chicago. That is true in politics, in the media, in infrastructure, and in baseball.

Chicago is the third-largest city in the United States with more than 2.5 million people. The media market is obviously more expansive. However, the Chicago White Sox aren’t even in the top half of Major League Baseball’s most-valuable franchises, as they rank 16th according to Forbes. New York and Los Angeles have two teams apiece in the top 10. The Cubs have snuck into the top five. The White Sox, though, fall through the cracks.

I wonder how much that relative invisibility, at least in comparison to the Cubs on the North Side, translates to fantasy baseball for the average owner. Certainly guys like Chris Sale and Jose Abreu are headliners, but useful players such as Adam Eaton and Jose Quintana are routinely under-owned in leagues. I’ve talked about Eaton many times; however, Quintana’s obscurity remains a mystery.

The left-hander compiled a 3.32 ERA last year with a 2.81 FIP and had a 32 percent ownership rate at the beginning of the season. He has continued his quality run of form, posting a 3.50 ERA this year with a 3.16 FIP and doesn’t even have 65-percent ownership in ESPN leagues. That’s even more incredible, given the fact that his ERA has been under 3.00 since the beginning of May with 107 strikeouts in 119 1/3 innings. Players with a track record of success and a substantive hot streak usually see their ownership rates skyrocket. Not Quintana.

Again, perhaps that lack of attention comes from playing on the South Side of Chicago. Perhaps not. He doesn’t spend a lot of time in front of the camera, either, and many of his past interviews were done through an interpreter. Without that face time, his popularity could be hindered. His stuff also won’t catch headlines, as he throws 90-92 mph with a curveball and a changeup. Neither Twitter nor SportsCenter will hype his starts.

Whatever the reason, Jose Quintana doesn’t command the fantasy-baseball respect that he deserves, and it could still represent an opportunity to “buy low” in leagues where he’s already owned—or this article could simply serve as a kick in the pants to claim him on waivers. Over the last two seasons, Quintana ranks 12th in Major League Baseball with a 2.96 FIP (among qualified starters), and the idea that he’s still going unclaimed in over a third of ESPN leagues is ludicrous.

In this space, I’ve often talked about The Holy Trinity when it comes to fantasy baseball pitchers—guys who are better than average in ground-ball rate, strikeouts, and walks. These pitchers excel at three of the core components of pitching. Naturally, these pitchers also perform among the best in the league. Quintana—with his 48.7 perecent ground-ball rate, 20.9 percent strikeout rate, and 4.9 percent walk rate—is one of only 25 starters to qualify for The Holy Trinity this year. He did the same a year ago, too.

Last year, I mentioned that Quintana might have a bit of trouble sustaining his above-average strikeout rate, given his pedestrian swinging-strike rates. Those have increased in 2015. He had never posted a swinging-strike rate above nine percent—sitting at 8.3 percent last year—but that has jumped to 9.7 percent in this campaign. He’s gotten opposing hitters to chase pitches out of the strike zone at a higher rate, resulting in more whiffs and a lower contact rate. In short, Quintana is doing what he’s always been doing, just better. Somehow, though, the broader baseball community refuses to pay attention.

This is likely due to a lack of wins. A year ago, the left-hander posted one of the best FIPs in baseball and had a 3.32 ERA, yet did not log double-digit wins. This prevented him from being a top-notch fantasy producer. This season, he has only “won” six games, despite being above average on the mound yet again. It has kept him from cracking the top-50 fantasy starters, though he does lie just outside.

Fantasy owners shouldn’t base future performance on past win totals, though, and that should be relatively obvious at this point. If his win totals take a bump, he suddenly becomes one of the better fantasy starters in the league. That can be a bit random; however, the White Sox offense has improved in recent weeks. They’ve scored the sixth-most runs in baseball over the past 30 days. Perhaps that’s an indicator that Quintana can improve his win totals in the final two months. I feel it’s more random than anything, but an offense that’s clicking doesn’t hurt.

Any potential trade or acquisition has risk. For Quintana, though, it doesn’t appear that the risk centers on his core skills or his rate statistics. Instead, it stems from the inability to win 15 games. He won’t win that many in 2015, of course, but the past doesn’t matter in that respect. It’s about capitalizing on someone who contributes in three pitching categories and has a chance to contribute in four, in the win totals break correctly. That’s valuable, no matter how the “player rater” systems operate.

BUYER’S ADVICE: BUY

Savvy fantasy owners understand the value that Jose Quintana brings to the table. It would be nice to have better WHIP totals to pair with the ERA and strikeout numbers, but they remain passable. In expert leagues, Quintana will likely cost more than his fantasy ranking would suggest. Still, he’s only 26 years old and has been one of the better pitchers in baseball. It’s improbable that he’ll cost what his underlying skills are worth. In the average league, though, Quintana remains one of the best pitching trade targets. Take advantage of that while it’s possible. For owners in leagues where he’s on the waiver wire, take a hint and pick him up.

J.P. Breen is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @jp_breen
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