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August 7, 2015

5 O'Clock Power

Scouting a Series: Frederick vs. Myrtle Beach

by Tucker Blair

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Evaluating in the public realm can often turn into a big-game hunting event, with a prominent portion of the coverage directed towards the eventual major league talent. This happens because the big names draw the largest crowd, so it's not an uncommon strategy to target those players that will garner the most buzz. Player evaluation is not so cut-and-dry, however. Over the course of the season, scouts and evaluators watch hundreds of players and are grading more than just the next mid-rotation starter or potential first-division shortstop. Most of the players we lay eyes on are simply minor league filler. This series is meant to take a more detailed look at the process of evaluating talent, and hopefully provide a greater understanding of what a minor league roster really looks like.

July 31- August 2, 2015

High-A

Frederick Keys (Baltimore Orioles)

Myrtle Beach Pelicans (Chicago Cubs)

Frederick Keys
Position	Pos.	Hit	Power	Speed	Glove	Arm	OFP	Notes
Chance Sisco	C	55	40	40	30	45	50	Above-avg bat speed; swing is loose and easy; balanced; recognizes spin; moderate approach; struggles defensively with blocking; slight improvements since last viewing but the glove still lags behind; VIDEO
Josh Hart	CF	45	20	60	60	40	40	Agility and speed in OF; displayed plus range and instincts in OF; made a tough play at the warning track to rob a hit; discipline and approach at plate have regressed since last viewing; no power; swing is fluid with above-average bat speed; VIDEO
Yaisel Mederos	1B	30	40	20	30	55	30	Tall and sturdy frame; lacks athleticism; avg bat speed; plus raw power; elongated swing; stays balanced; mild recognition of spin; rusty due to lack of playing time; VIDEO
Jeff Kemp	SS/2B	30	30	40	45	45	30	Utility profile; lacks a carrying tool but is solid depth up the middle; strong makeup player
Austin Wynns	C	20	20	20	50	50	30	Average arm/defense; solid game manager; routinely impresses behind the plate; can play in the upper minors for a while
Wynston Sawyer	1B	20	20	20	30	40	20	Org filler that can play catcher in an emergency
Tad Gold	OF	20	20	40	60	40	20	Instinctual fielder; agile; swing is not conducive for contact; lacks physical strength; org filler
Anthony Caronia	2B	20	20	50	40	30	20	Utility filler
Jay Gonzalez	OF	20	20	60	50	20	20	Org filler that can play CF; moderate approach with ability to recognize spin; lacks the tools to play at higher levels
Conor Bierfeldt	RF	20	20	20	30	55	20	Above-avg raw power; swing is rigid with below-avg bat speed
Tanner Witt	3B	20	20	50	20	30	20	Poor at the plate and in the field; org filler

***

Frederick Keys
		FB	CB	SL	CH
Pitcher	L/R	Overall Command Velocity	Overall Command Velocity	Overall Command Velocity	Overall Command Velocity	OFP	Notes
Jon Keller	R	60/70				40	Tall and sturdy frame; high 3/4 arm slot; downhill plane with long extension; opens up front side; inconsistent landing; has flashed avg SL in prior viewings
		30/40
		94-96
Nik Nowottnick	R	45/50		45/45		40	Tall frame with long limbs; avg arm speed; high 3/4 arm slot; extreme downhill plane; FB can get straight and flatten when left up in zone
		40/45		40/40
		90-92		81-82
Donnie Hart	L	50/50		50/50	40/40	40	Sidearm slot; extreme deception allows arsenal to play up; struggles to repeat mechanics, hinders command
		40/45		40/40	40/40
		86-88 T89		74-76	78-79
Mitch Horacek	L	45/45		30/30	30/30	30	Clean delivery; stiff landing; flat FB; lacks a secondary pitch he can rely on
		45/50		30/30	30/30
		86-90 T91		80-83 T84	80-83
Cody Wheeler	R	45/45		30/30	30/30	20	3/4 arm slot; stab; avg arm speed; inverted landing; hard drive; FB is flat
		40/40		30/30	30/30
		88-91		78-80	80-81

***

Myrtle Beach Pelicans
Position	Pos.	Hit	Power	Speed	Glove	Arm	OFP	Notes
Carlos Penalver	SS	20	20	50	55	45	30	Above-avg range, hands, footwork; utility profile that can play up the middle; bat provides no value
Chesny Young	UTIL	30	20	40	50	40	30	Utility profile; played 2B/3B and warmed up at multiple positions pre-game; instinctual; mild barrel control; moderate approach; fringe bat speed; lacks power; depth piece
Pin-Chieh Chen	OF	20	20	45	40	40	20	Unbalanced swing; front side leaks open; lacks an approach; can play all three OF positions
Jason Vosler	3B	20	20	20	30	40	20	Lacks the athleticism to play up the middle; poor bat; minor league filler
Cael Brockmeyer	C/1B	20	20	20	30	50	20	Played both C and 1B; average raw power; swing is brawny and lacks fluidity; lacks agility and footwork at C to provide anything more than value as minor league filler
Kevin Brown	OF	20	20	40	40	40	20	4.30 home to first; fringe bat speed; lacks a carrying tool
Trey Martin	CF	20	20	60	60	40	20	Poor approach; no pitch ID; noisy swing; extreme athlete that can provide depth as a CF
Jordan Hankins	C/DH	20	20	20	-	-	20	DH both games played; fringe bat speed; lacks athleticism; org filler
Daniel Lockhart	2B	20	20	45	40	40	20	Lacks a carrying tool; fringe bat speed; lacks the agility and range to play anything more than fringe at 2B

***

Myrtle Beach Pelicans
		FB	CB	SL	CH
Pitcher	L/R	Overall Command Velocity	Overall Command Velocity	Overall Command Velocity	Overall Command Velocity	OFP	Notes
Joshua Conway	R	55/60		40/50		40	Athletic frame; high 3/4 arm slot; plus arm speed; moderate effort with downhill plane; FB with life; SL short and tight; inconsistent release point
		30/40		30/40
		93-95		85-87
David Berg	R	40/40				-	Sidearm; hops and falls off to right on landing; deception; only threw three pitches in viewing
		40/40
		84-85
Brad Markey	R	45/50		30/30	30/30	30	3/4 arm slot; avg arm speed; stuttered delivery; falls off; inverted land; deception; delivery gets out of sync
		40/45		40/40	40/40
		90-92 T93		80-82 T83	81-83 T84
Jasvir Rakkar	R	45/45		30/30	20/20	20	3/4 arm slot; + arm speed; deep arm action with stab; max effort; hard land; FB flat
		30/30		20/20	20/20
		90-92		82-83	85-86
Fernando Cruz	R	40/40		30/30		20	Short and thick frame; 3/4 arm slot; deep arm action with stab; falls off; FB flat and straight
		30/30		20/20
		89-91 T92		79-84
James Farris	R	40/40		30/30	30/30	20	3/4 arm slot; avg arm speed; moderate drive; cuts off delivery at hips; FB flat with cut; delivery has mild deception
		30/30		30/30	30/30
		86-88 T89		82-83	82
Tyler Ihrig	L	30/30	30/30		30/30	20	Short and athletic; 3/4 arm slot; well below-avg stuff with deception
		40/40	30/30		30/30
		83-85 T86	69-72 T73		66-69 T70
David Garner	R	45/45		30/30		20	short and skinny; above-avg arm speed; deep arm action with stab; mild effort; inverted land; inconsistent mechanics and well below-avg command hinder profile
		30/30		30/30
		91-94		79-81

Paul Blackburn
Christopher Lee
David Hess
Mark Zagunis
Victor Caratini

Paul Blackburn


	Born: 12/04/1993 (Age: 21)
	Bats: Right	Throws: Right
	Height: 6' 1"	Weight: 195

Build: Athletic with broad shoulders; maxed.

Mechanics: High 3/4 arm slot; clean arm action; average arm speed; hips/upper half stay in unison; minimal effort; slightly inverted landing; delivery times ~1.31

Evaluator	Tucker Blair
Report Date	08/05/2015
Affiliate	Myrtle Beach Pelicans (High A, Cubs)
Dates Seen	7/31/2015
OFP/Risk	45/Moderate
Realistic	40; Middle Relief
MLB ETA	2017
Video	No

Pitch Type	Present Grade	Future Grade	Sitting Velocity	Peak Velocity	Report
FB	45	50	87-91	92	Velocity: 50/50 Movement: 50/50 Command: 45/50 T92 once; mild downhill plane; mild arm-side run; pounds all four quadrants; command is inconsistent to gloveside; velocity dipped to 87-89 in latter innings.
CB	40	50	73-75	76	Movement: 50/50 Command: 40/50 Replicates arm speed; 12-6 offering; moderate depth; release points are inconsistent; works as a get-me-over and as a strike-to-ball offering; hittable when he casts; refinements in release point will improve pitch a grade.
CH	45	50	82-84	84	Movement: 50/50 Command: 45/50 Replicates arm speed; moderate fade; consistent velocity separation; sequences well with FB and will double up on offering; slight refinements in release point will improve offering a tick.

Blackburn has average stuff across the board, but displays pitchability. He sequenced the entire outing, keeping Frederick off-balance and incapable of piecing together efficient swings. The ceiling is not high without a pitch better than average, limiting his ceiling to a back-end starter. There is moderate risk because he has yet to reach Double-A.

Round Drafted: First round (56th), 2012 (signed for $911,700)
Why: Pitchability with the chance for three average or better pitches.

Christopher Lee


	Born: 08/17/1992 (Age: 22)
	Bats: Left	Throws: Left
	Height: 6' 4"	Weight: 175

Build: Tall; athletic build; high waist; long legs; maxed frame.

Mechanics: 3/4 arm slot; plus arm speed; stab; mild head whack; clean land with hard drive; front side can get stiff; repeats delivery.

Evaluator	Tucker Blair
Report Date	08/05/2015
Affiliate	Frederick Keys (High A, Orioles)
Dates Seen	8/1/2015
OFP/Risk	50/Moderate
Realistic	45; No. 5 Starter / Swingman
MLB ETA	2017
Video	No

Pitch Type	Present Grade	Future Grade	Sitting Velocity	Peak Velocity	Report
FB	55	60	91-94	95	Velocity: 60/60 Movement: 50/50 Command: 40/50 T95 three times; downhill plane; deception; armside run; life; spotted in lower quadrants entire outing; inconsistent command to glove side; touched 95 mph twice for a K on the final out of seventh inning.
SL	40	45			Movement: 40/40 Command: 40/40 Replicates arm speed; throws two variants; short SL 86-88 velo band; acts as a cutter; well below-average offering that lacks movement and deception; SL at 83-85 velo band displays mild sweeping action; strike-to-ball offering.
CH	40	45	84-86	86	Movement: 40/45 Command: 40/45 Replicates arm speed; mild fade; only threw three in seven innings; flashed one effective offering; release point inconsistent.

Lee mowed down the Myrtle Beach lineup, and was promoted immediately after the game. His FB moves in multiple ways, and will be a weapon in the rotation or out of the pen. The SL/CH are lagging behind, but the slower SL plays better and the CH flashed fringe-average. The Orioles have tinkered with his mechanics since acquiring Lee earlier this season, and he repeated his delivery the entire outing. There is risk involved due to the lack of an average secondary offering.

Round Drafted: Fourth round, 2011
Why: Athletic pitcher with chance for three average or better pitches out of the rotation.

David Hess


	Born: 07/10/1993 (Age: 22)
	Bats: Right	Throws: Right
	Height: 6' 2"	Weight: 180

Build: Athletic frame; chiseled body with strong core; maxed frame.

Mechanics: 3/4 arm slot; plus arm speed; slight stab; less head whack and spine tilt than earlier in season; moderate effort; slightly inverted foot landing; delivery times ~1.40

Evaluator	Tucker Blair
Report Date	08/05/2015
Affiliate	Frederick Keys (High A, Orioles)
Dates Seen	8/2/2015
OFP/Risk	50/Moderate
Realistic	50; Set-up Arm
MLB ETA	2017
Video	No

Pitch Type	Present Grade	Future Grade	Sitting Velocity	Peak Velocity	Report
FB	55	65	90-94	95	Velocity: 60/65 Movement: 50/50 Command: 40/50 T95 twice; downhill plane; heavy offering at lower velo band; flattens at higher velo band; straight; works inside on hitters; move to bullpen could tick FB velo up a grade.
SL	50	50	78-81	82	Movement: 55/55 Command: 40/40 Replicates arm speed; hard tilt with sweeping action; strike-to-ball offering; works as his out pitch.
CB	40	40	73-75	75	Movement: 40/40 Command: 40/40 Replicates arm speed; get-me-over pitch; mild depth and spin; loses effectiveness after he has flashed it a few times.
CH	30	40	81-85	86	Movement: 30/30 Command: 40/40 Replicates arm speed; firm; lacks feel; 81 mph pitch was in the dirt; lacks deception and separation to be an effective offering.

Hess has cleaned up his mechanics since the beginning of the season, working more efficiently towards home and cutting out the excess movement in his head/front shoulder. The delivery still has some effort and he lacks an effective third pitch, limiting his overall role.

Round Drafted: Fifth round, 2014
Why: Advanced college arm with a four pitch arsenal; potential to stick as a starter; potential plus FB/SL work as a relief option.

Mark Zagunis


	Born: 02/05/1993 (Age: 22)
	Bats: Right	Throws: Right
	Height: 6' 0"	Weight: 205
	Primary Position: RF
	Secondary Position: LF

Sturdy frame; athletic with broad shoulders; maxed.

Evaluator	Tucker Blair
Report Date	08/05/2015
Dates Seen	7/31/15 - 8/2/15
Affiliate	Myrtle Beach Pelicans (High A, Cubs)

MLB ETA	Risk Factor	OFP	Realistic Role	Video
2017	Moderate	40	30; Org. Player	No

Hustles; professional attitude with respect from teammates.

Tool	Future Grade	Report
Hit	40	Average bat speed; muscled and rigid swing; minor hitch; moderate load with toe tap; stays balanced; advanced approach; recognizes spin; can beat with velocity inside and up; does not always barrel when making contact.
Power	30	Average raw power; slight leverage; mostly gap power; plays down in-game due to hit tool.
Baserunning/Speed	45	4.40 home to first; out of box slow; displays more athleticism in field.
Glove	50	Clean routes; first step needs refinement, especially moving backwards; enough athleticism to play corner OF with ease.
Arm	50	Average arm strength with carry; accurate throws.

Zagunis displays an advanced approach at the plate, but lacks the looseness and fluidity I like to see in a swing. The swing is compact but he struggles to reach power velocity. Zagunis was athletic and clean in the OF for the most part, with continued repetition allowing for an average profile in the corners. There is moderate risk due to his shift out of C and lack of time in the upper minors.

Round Drafted: Third round, 2014
Why: Athletic C with advanced approach and the potential to stick behind the plate.

Victor Caratini


	Born: 08/17/1993 (Age: 21)
	Bats: Switch	Throws: Right
	Height: 6' 1"	Weight: 215
	Primary Position: C
	Secondary Position: 1B

Stocky; thick bottom half; will need to stay conditioned; frame has slight room for growth.

Evaluator	Tucker Blair
Report Date	08/05/2015
Dates Seen	7/31/15 - 8/2/15
Affiliate	Myrtle Beach Pelicans (High A, Cubs)

MLB ETA	Risk Factor	OFP	Realistic Role	Video
N/A	High	30	30; Org. Player	No

Looked defeated at the plate on multiple occasions.

Tool	Future Grade	Report
Hit	20	Average bat speed; slight hitch; hands drift; swing can become elongated from right side; front side leaks open; unbalanced; mild load and leg lift; passive approach; mild recognition of spin; failed to show the same swing throughout the entire series.
Power	20	Fringe raw power; gap-style hitter with slight leverage; hit tool will not allow power to actualize.
Baserunning/Speed	20	4.50 home to first; lacks athleticism and agility.
Glove	40	Rigid behind the plate; inconsistent footwork leads to poor blocking; struggles to move horizontally; stabs often on framing.
Arm	45	Above-average arm strength; 2.14 pop time; inconsistent footwork; long transfer; arm plays down a grade in-game.

Caratini struggled the entire series, failing to show any consistency. The swing was highly inconsistent, even in batting practice. The defense can improve slightly, but the footwork was highly inconsistent and I question his ability to maintain an athletic frame for sticking behind the plate. There is high risk involved due to questions surrounding his positional value and the poor hit tool.

Round Drafted: Second round, 2013
Why: C/3B with ability to grow into an average defender and the makings of an average hit tool.

Tucker Blair is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @TuckerBlairON
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