August 5, 2015

Dynasty Dynamics

Digging for Diamonds

by Craig Goldstein

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Each of the last two years ,I’ve compiled a list of prospects for the Futures Guide under the heading “The Ones Who Could Jump.” These are players not on the Top 101 Fantasy Prospect list, or among Bret’s honorable mentions. The goal, beyond being right, is to highlight players who should see a substantial jump in value, even if they don’t end up on the list the following season.

This past year’s list includes names like Ozhaino Albies, Lewis Brinson, Jose De Leon, Wilmer Difo, Taylor Guerrieri, Brent Honeywell, Jorge Mateo, Gleyber Torres, and Trevor Story. So while they’re not all accurate, that’s a solid showing. Let’s look at a few players who might see a substantial rise in value between now and the end of the season—names who would have qualified early on this season are Anthony Alford, Blake Snell, Jacob Nottingham, etc. Is this long enough for an intro yet? I can list more names… no? We’re good? Okay.

Note that this list excludes 2015 Draftees.

Victor Robles - OF - Nationals

You won’t find much ink on Robles prior to the 2015 season. He first pops up on BP in March of this year, with Jeff Moore warning us “this is a name you’re going to hear a lot about soon.” Baseball America listed him as the Nationals 25th-best prospect entering 2014, but he was unranked coming into this year.

All he’s done in 2015 is make a ton of contact, while showing at least a concept of the strike zone, while displaying his plus-plus wheels. Robles sports a lithe body, so packing on some positive weight could do wonders, given his already above-average raw power. He’s played mostly center field as a pro, and has the range to stick there at present. He knows how to run and could be a dynamic across -the-board contributor in due time. While his stateside success can’t be overstated, no one should be rushing him to the big leagues despite an advanced approach. This is a long-term investment if you’re planning on seeing him play for your team. If you’re looking to invest and spin in the offseason though… that’s a different story.

Ruddy Giron - SS - Padres

To suggest this season could have been expected from Giron is as laughable as suggesting Thursday is the weekend. He’s been phenomenal though, carving out a .316/.357/.463 line in 66 games at Low-A Fort Wayne. At 18 years old, that’s nothing to laugh at. Perhaps more impressive is how he’s doing it. Giron is only striking out just under 16 percent of the time. At 5-foot-11, 175 pounds, he’s not a big guy but he’s got strength to him, as his eight homers can attest. There’s a chance he’s not a long-term shortstop, but if the bat continues to play, he’ll hold plenty of value at the keystone. His 14 stolen bases shouldn’t go unnoticed by fantasy owners eyeing that all-important fifth category either.

Devin Williams - RHP - Brewers

A favorite of mine when he was drafted (2013), Williams was—and remains—a project. The projectable right-hander has progressed nicely though, spending last year at short-season Helena, seems to have prepared him well for full-season ball. He’s registered a 3.17 ERA thus far, whiffing a hair under 23 percent of batters faced. His bugaboo continues to be control, and with a walk rate at 11 percent, it’s difficult to argue he’s made a ton of progress there. That said, he’s highly athletic and as he learns to repeat his mechanics, he should make progress with his control, if not his command. His stuff is live enough to live in the zone, even if the command never makes it past average.

Cody Reed - LHP - Reds

Speaking of projectable, the left-handed Reed stands 6-foot-5, 220 pounds and can touch the upper 90s in short stints. Close your mouth. While he can hit 99 mph in a one-inning look, Reed touches 97 with some frequency (don’t worry, it’s not inappropriate touching) and will sit in the mid 90s. His biggest obstacle wasn’t lack of a secondary pitch (he’s got a slider that has flashed plus) but rather sub-par command. He’s made strides with that in 2015 and is now holds a reasonable chance to start. With his heat and breaking ball, even a fringy changeup could let him start, especially if he can continue to make gains in the command department. He’s already in Double-A and could begin to pay dividends as soon as 2016, given the holes in the Reds rotation.

Other names to know: Javier Guerra (Red Sox), Jomar Reyes (Orioles), Richard Urena (Blue Jays), Jake Bauers (Rays), Anderson Espinoza (Red Sox)

Author’s note: It’s really weird the “other” section is all AL-E players. This was unplanned. I don’t know why it happened.

Craig Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @cdgoldstein
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