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August 4, 2015 Expert FAAB ReviewWeek 18Depending on how long you have been a Baseball Prospectus subscriber, welcome or welcome back to the Expert FAAB Review. Every week, I’m going to take a look at the players and the process behind the expert bidding in LABR mixed, Tout Wars NL, and Tout Wars AL. Bret Sayre and I participate in LABR mixed while I have a team in Tout Wars NL, so I will provide insights behind the reasoning on some the bids. Budgets in all three leagues start at $100 at the beginning of the season. Tout Wars uses a Vickrey Auction system. A basic description of the Vickrey bidding system can be found here. Random Quote of the Week: “I love it when a plan comes together” —Hannibal Smith, The A Team The 2015 non-waiver trade deadline brought with it a flurry of action, and while this certainly had an impact on mixed leagues based on players gaining or losing everyday jobs, it is in AL or NL-only leagues where the trade deadline has the most tangible impact on the league – and where a season’s worth of FAAB strategy comes into play. Because of this, I will start with the Tout Wars AL and NL leagues and then shift over to LABR mixed at the end of the article. Tout AL Table 1: AL Tout Wars FAAB Remaining: Sunday, August 2, 2015
Rob Leibowitz, Mastersball. FAAB Left: $87. 9th place, 57.5 points 1. dis Coco Crisp Oak:
2. rel Matt Moore TB:
Depending upon your team’s needs, an argument could have been made for any of Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gomez, Johnny Cueto, or Cole Hamels as your high-end FAAB purchase this week. Leibowitz needs categorical help everywhere, but is dead in strikeouts so the acquisition of the all-around fantasy hitter makes sense, particularly if you believe that Gomez is going to bounce back and is healthy. Tout Wars penalizes teams in future FAAB that finish under 60 points, in case you’re wondering why a ninth-place team is bidding so aggressively on a player in a redraft league. Seth Trachtman, Rotoworld. FAAB Left: $81. 10th place, 49.5 points 1. res Travis Snider Bal:
2. rel Sam Fuld Oak:
3. rel Drew Pomeranz Oak:
Two owners into this analysis, and there’s already a curveball, as Trachtman not only doesn’t procure any of the big four, but only bids on one of them. In defense of Trachtman’s decision, Parra has out-earned Tulowitzki and Gomez in fantasy year-to-date and it is entirely possible that he will continue to do so going forward. What I find more unusual than the decision to go for Parra is the lack of bids on any of Tulo, Cueto, or Hamels. To be sure, Trachtman needed the offense, but he had a need for pitching as well. Trachtman is carrying 10 pitchers at the moment, and could have slid Tulo in for any of those pitchers. Trachtman probably assumed what I would have: that the owners behind him and ahead of him were going to be more aggressive with their FAAB and that he only had a shot at one of the “big four”. If I had been in this position, I probably would have loaded up both of the first two bidding blocks with as many players as possible and hoped for the best. Mike Podhorzer, Fangraphs. FAAB Left: $73. 2nd place, 89.5 points. 1. dis Devon Travis Tor:
2. dis Stephen Souza TB:
3. res Adam Warren NYY:
4. res Tim Beckham TB:
The biggest beneficiary of the diversification strategies of other owners with higher FAAB budgets was Podhorzer. Not only did Podhorzer snag Tulowitzki at slightly less than half of his raw bid with a smooth $35 Vickrey price, he also picked up Fiers at a minimum winning bid of $1. Fiers certainly isn’t in the class of Cueto or Hamels, but in the watery pitching market of AL-only, this is a huge win for Podhorzer. I really dig the aggressiveness of Podhorzer’s bids on the whole, and even though he didn’t have much of a chance at most of these players in the FAAB sweepstakes, I am more of a fan of being aggressive and getting the best player on the board than worrying about the bargains other owners may or may not get if the league doesn’t bid aggressively on the whole. Marte at $6 is a nice, sneaky play in a week where nearly everyone was focused on the NL imports. . Steve Moyer, Inside Edge. FAAB Left: $60. 12th place, 36.5 points 1. res Jemile Weeks Bos:
2. res Bud Norris Bal:
3. res Alexi Ogando Bos:
4. res Nolan Reimold Bal:
5. res Brad Brach Bal:
Moyer needs a lot of help to get to the 60-point threshold, so instead of putting all of his eggs in one basket with one big purchase, he decided to diversify and wound up with Fiers and Wilson. Or at least I thought he wound up with Fiers and Wilson; it turns out that Podhorzer got Fiers for $1. I don’t quite understand what happened. Moyer and a few other teams bid more than $1 on Fiers and didn’t get him. It seems to me like Moyer should have walked away with Fiers and Wilson but didn’t. This would change my analysis of Podhorzer’s haul somewhat if the transactions at the Tout Wars website are incorrect. Getting back to what Moyer did, I like the strategy to a degree. There is enough variability with the 57 or so games most major league teams have left to play that there is a better chance that two good players could earn more than one great player, especially in an AL-only, where the replacement level consideration is hardly a factor. However, had I been in Moyer’s shoes I would have probably tried two $30 bid blocks in the hopes that I could have walked away with two players of a higher caliber. Jason Collette, Fangraphs. FAAB Left: $60. 5th place (tie), 65.5 points. 1. res Brandon Moss StL:
2. res Blaine Boyer Min:
3. res Chase Anderson Cle:
4. dis Robinson Chirinos Tex:
In the case of Collette, I have a specific insight into his thought process thanks to a conversation he was part of on Twitter with another Tout Wars owner. He bid aggressively on Revere—and passed on Tulowitzki, Cueto, and Hamels—because he felt he had more of a need for stolen bases than for any other category. In this case, although an argument could be made that Collette should have put in backup bids for those other players, unlike Moyer he would not have been able to purchase any of those players with the limited FAAB he had left after getting Revere. I do wonder if Collette would have bid differently had he known how “cheap” the other NL-imports would be, I dig Collette’s cheap plays here. Casali will cool off, but a catcher who even has a chance at hitting is worth his weight in gold in a two-catcer AL-only. Diekman throws hard, and while he might not get any saves, the strikeout play here alone is worth making. Ron Shandler, Shandler Park. FAAB Left: $43. 5th place (tie), 65.5 points. 1. res Jake Marisnick Hou:
2. res Zack McAllister Cle:
3. res Chris Carter Hou:
Shandler tried to get offense first, lost out on every player in the first bid block, and wound up with a nice buy in Cueto at $30. Given the priority of the bids, I do wonder if Shandler would have kicked all of those hitters up to $40 had he known this was the way it was going to play out. Based on how the categories are playing out, there are more hitting points for Shandler to gain than pitching points, though with the trade deadline in Tout still a month away, there is still time to make a deal. This is the point in the FAAB hierarchy where diversification would not have done any of the experts any good, so in terms of how the bids are structured here, they are quite solid. Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton, Colton and The Wolfman. FAAB Left: $43. 8th place, 61.5 points. 1. res Rick Porcello Bos:
2. res Jackie Bradley Bos:
3. res Marwin Gonzalez Hou:
Pitching was a more significant need for the Wolf/Colton team than hitting, and this was reflected in their bids. Some have Cueto ranked higher than Hamels, but I can see arguments for both pitchers and there is nothing wrong with preferring Hamels over Cueto. As was the case with Shandler, Wolf/Colton didn’t have enough money to get two players, so it didn’t matter much if they diversified their FAAB dollars or not. Jeff Erickson, Rotowire. FAAB Left: $29. 3rd place, 87 points. 1. res Jake Smolinski Oak:
2. res Alex Colome TB:
3. res Vincent Velasquez Hou:
We have reached the portion of the program where teams didn’t have enough FAAB to get one of the big names. So while Erickson bid all he could on the players above in the hopes that he would purchase a big-ticket import, he failed to grab any of them. Brooks, Wilson, and Shaw are all interesting plays, but Erickson obviously would have preferred to get any of the big names above than the players that he did. Erickson’s big purchase to date was Vincent Velasquez at $24. His other $10-plus purchases were Hanser Alberto at $19 and Chi Gonzalez at $11. Erickson’s strategy of diversification didn’t result in a big winner via FAAB. It happens, and while it’s easy to point now at Erickson spending on players who didn’t work out, there are also no guarantees that waiting for a significant import will work either. Lawr Michaels, Mastersball. FAAB Left: $20. 11th place, 38.5 points. NO BIDS Larry Schechter, Winning Fantasy Baseball. FAAB Left: $12. 4th place, 72 points. 1. res Carlos Beltran NYY:
Schechter’s big-ticket purchases year-to-date were Francisco Lindor ($38) and Tommy Field ($19). This is the wrong way to look at this, but add the $19 dollars that Field cost to Schechter’s FAAB budget and he could have purchased either Hamels or Cueto. This is hindsight talking, though, especially given the atypical, nonaggressive bids as noted earlier. Andy Behrens, Yahoo. FAAB Left: $8. 7th place, 63 points.
1. res Keone Kela Tex:
Behrens big-ticket purchases year-to-date were Robert Refsnyder ($27) and Kyle Blanks ($16). It turns out that Michaels is the exception to the rule; most of the Tout Wars AL-only experts at the bottom of the FAAB heap diversified rather than pushed for one big purchase, with poor results this year across the board. Chris Liss, Rotowire. FAAB Left: $5. 1st place, 94 points. 1. res Mark Canha Oak:
2. res Jake McGee TB:
3. res Rene Rivera TB:
Despite having spent the most FAAB in the league, Liss’s strategy year-to-date was even more diversified than most owners, with Zack McAllister the only player costing him more than $10 ($16). Liss’s big FAAB buy came in the form of Carlos Correa, who he bid aggressively on weeks before Correa’s call up, but only had to spend one dollar on due to Vickrey. The pattern of FAAB ROI in 2015 in AL Tout was consistent with prior years. Big spending prior to the deadline didn’t correlate with big results, and low end bids were just as likely if not more likely to nab big results for players in the free agent pool.
Table 2: FAAB Left, Tout Wars National League, August 2, 2015
Your handsome (cough, cough, even my Mom doesn’t think I’m handsome but please just humor my fragile ego and go with it) hero had the proverbial hammer with a whopping $106. I had a choice between Yoenis Cespedes and Jose Reyes with my $83 bid. Cespedes is having the better year but Reyes was a better fit for my team categorically. Another thing to consider was that allowing Melnick to get Cespedes would give him more of a chance to catch me in home runs and RBI. I suspected that regardless of who I chose I would probably gain about the same amount of points with either player. In the end, I decided to go with… Jose Reyes $78 ($83). Other bids: $77, $74, $69, $69, $60, $45, $24. Player reserved: Kelly Johnson. Yoenis Cespedes $78. Other bids: $77, $74, $69, $69, $67, $62, $60, $24, $23. Player released: Clayton Richard Brandon Moss $75 ($77). Other bids: $74, $69, $65, $62, $40, $30, $24, $23, $21. Player reserved: Pete Kozma. Tyler Clippard $25. Other bids: $25, $14, $11, $3, $2. Player reserved: Tim Hudson J.A. Happ $16 ($37). Other bids: $15, $0. Player reserved: Chris Rusin Mike Foltynewicz $12 ($15). Other bids: $11, $2, $0. Player reserved: Clint Robinson Joakim Soria $12 ($21). Other bids: $11, $10, $10, $0. Player reserved: Brett Wallace Tommy Hunter $4 ($11). Other bid: $3. Player reserved: Robert Stephenson. Not much has gone wrong for my Tout Wars team this year, but my catching core has been a black hole nearly all season long. Devin Mesoraco’s injury gave me virtually no production from one of my catching slots, and while Rosario wasn’t a zero (he was on pace to earn $ through July 31st), his demotion to the minors makes it unlikely he will earn the $12 I paid for him in Tout. Salty is unlikely to play much with Welington Castillo lighting up the box score of late, but I needed someone, and figured Salty could get a couple of starts a week if Beef cools off. Finnegan was purchased last week, but the powers-that-be in Tout Wars said he should not have been available for purchase. He was a free agent again, so Hertz takes a shot at him. I like the Parker buy by Guilfoyle a lot; if Dickerson is out for a significant period of time, Parker could stand to benefit significantly. Ishikawa is the other nice buy in this group. Since the Pirates didn’t make a big time acquisition at the deadline, Ishikawa could play a fair amount of first base down the stretch for the Bucs. LABR Mixed Hank Conger $6. Player released: None It was another relatively quiet week in LABR, as the lack of quality options on the free agent pool combined with the league’s dwindling FAAB both playe a role in the lack of moves. Three of the 15 teams in LABR mixed are out of FAAB, while another three teams have between one and three dollars to spend. The push for Conger makes me and Bret believe that we can swap out Welington Castillo, Derek Norris, or Kyle Schwarber via trade in an effort to shore up another area of our team. With C.J. Wilson out for the season, starting pitching is the area Bret and I most likely to address. Even though we’re out of FAAB, paying attention to what other teams are doing gives us a good idea of where we might be able to improve our team via trade from this point forward.
Mike Gianella is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @MikeGianella
9 comments have been left for this article.
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Yawn, what a boring week!