August 3, 2015

The Call-Up

Jon Gray

by Brendan Gawlowski and J.P. Breen

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The Situation: Mired in last place and committed to a rebuild, the Rockies have recalled their top farmhand, Jon Gray. Gray is replacing Kyle Kendrick in the rotation, after the latter was placed on the disabled list with right shoulder inflammation.

Background: Gray was a solid prospect entering his third year at Oklahoma before a velocity bump and a big junior season propelled him to the top of draft boards. The Rockies snatched him up with the third overall pick of the 2013 draft, passing on a number of potential impact bats to get their future ace. Although Gray has pitched decently and kept the ball in the park since turning professional, his overall body of work has been disappointing for a player of his pedigree, and his stock has decreased since draft day. He’s lost a few ticks on his fastball pitching every fifth day and his wipeout slider took a step back along the way. At one point his scouting report came sprinkled with ‘70’ and ‘80’ future grades but those have mostly turned into ‘50’s’ and ‘60’s.’ Accordingly, he missed the cut on BP’s mid-season top 50 prospects list.

Scouting Report: Early in games, Gray lights up the radar gun with mid-90’s fastballs and he touched 97 in my viewing of him this June. He had trouble holding that velocity deep into the game, however, and during the later innings he sat 90-92. Primarily, he works with a sinking two-seamer with plenty of life although he’s also able to elevate it in search of a whiff. He commands the fastball better when operating at a lower velocity band. In the aggregate, it’s a plus pitch, although it may look very different in the first inning than it does in the sixth.

The slider was arguably Gray’s best pitch as an amateur, although it’s more of an above-average offering now than the plus-plus monster he had two years ago. His best ones feature hard, sweeping action and two-plane break; when it’s on, righties will fall over themselves chasing it out of the zone. Gray gets more run on the slider when he locates glove side and he’ll reduce the break when he’s trying to steal a strike with a backdoor slider. The changeup is his third pitch: it’s hard with a bit of tumbling action but it won’t miss many bats and he doesn’t command it well.

Gray’s success will depend on how effectively he commands his bread and butter, the fastball and slider. When the Rockies needed starters earlier this year, they bypassed Gray so that he could hone his command in a developmental setting, and the club feels that he’s improved in that department over the last month and a half or so. He’s pitched well lately — in his last six starts he has a 2.70 ERA with 38 strikeouts and 13 walks — but he’ll face a stiff test in his home park, where mistakes are punished severely and often. Gray will hold his own if he commands his pitches effectively, and he’ll take his lumps on days when he doesn’t have much feel for the strike zone.

Immediate Big League Future: The Rockies aren’t recalling Gray for a spot start: barring an injury or an innings limit, the 23-year-old will likely spend the rest of the season in Colorado’s big league rotation. - Brendan Gawlowski

Fantasy Impact: One of the most hyped prospects to come out of the 2013 Draft, Jon Gray has seen his stock dip over the last 12 months. Scouting reports have historically suggested that Gray could be a top-of-the-rotation pitcher; however, those reports have cooled this summer. He owns a 4.33 ERA and 1.49 WHIP with Triple-A Albuquerque and is yet to see his glowing scouting reports reflected in his run prevention.

It seems counter-intuitive to expect Gray to suddenly flip the switch at the major-league level in the most difficult pitching environment in all of baseball. His 45 percent groundball rate in the minors doesn't translate well to Colorado, either. One would like to see above-average groundball rates from a young pitcher at Coors, especially if his control has been spotty this year.

Still, Gray remains a long-term asset with value. His fastball can still bump the mid-90s and his slider is still a strikeout weapon. Due to his past hype, he's likely owned in most dynasty leagues, and due to his deficiencies, he's not an attractive trade target at the moment. Still, owners in re-draft leagues who need strikeout help can find something useful in Gray. He doesn't profile as a guy who will step in an immediately post better-than-average ERA and/or WHIP; thus, most of his value will be dependent on his ability to miss bats.

In NL-only leagues, Gray should receive plenty of opportunities to find success in the rotation. He's easily worth a $12-14 bid, with a bit of upward mobility in that bid. In single-season mixed leagues, fantasy owners should stick with a bid in the $4-6 range. If he does have meaningful value in 2015, it will be in the strikeout category, so any bids for help this season should keep that in mind. - J.P. Breen

Brendan Gawlowski is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @GawlowskiB
Click here to see Brendan's other articles. You can contact Brendan by clicking here
J.P. Breen is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @jp_breen
Click here to see J.P.'s other articles. You can contact J.P. by clicking here