August 3, 2015

The Call-Up

Henry Owens

by Christopher Crawford and Ben Carsley

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The situation: The Red Sox rotation has been better as of late, though one could argue that is only because it couldn’t pitch any worse. Now that Boston is all but mathematically eliminated, the Red Sox will turn to one of the top pitching prospects in its system in Henry Owens.

Background: Owens was one of the more well-known prospects coming into the 2011 MLB Draft, and his combination of relatively advanced stuff along with a very projectable frame saw him go 37^th overall in a very strong pitching class. After an inauspicious start in his first full season, Owens was very impressive in both 2013 and 2014, striking out over a batter an inning and posting ERAs below 3.00 in each year. He ranked behind only Blake Swihart in the Red Sox top-10 this offseason, and 46^th overall in the BP 101 coming into the season.

Scouting report: If Owens is throwing strikes, his stuff is as good as any pitching prospect in the Boston system. Unfortunately, that has been far too large of and “if” in 2015.

He never added the big-time velocity to his fastball that so many projected he would as a prep at Edison HS in Huntington Beach, California, but the pitch is still an above-average offering that sits 88-92 mph with the occasional 94 when he reaches back. He can add run and sink to the pitch as well, though too often he doesn’t hit his spots, and he falls behind in the count. The curveball is maddeningly inconsistent, but when he finishes his delivery it’s another 55 to 60 offering with good spin and 11-5 break.

What makes Owens a potential No. 3 starter though is the changeup. It is one of the best of any pitching prospect in baseball. There’s late fade to the offering, and his arm speed and arm slot allow for tremendous deception. If it isn’t a plus-plus change, then no prospect has a plus-plus change right now. It’s that good.

While the stuff is certainly where it needs to be to get big league hitters out right now, the control and command are not. As stated above, the fastball command is below-average, and the change and curveball are pitches that are much better when he’s ahead in the count – as is the case for all pitchers. He’s made some strides with his control this summer, but there’s going to be starts where he struggles because of too much self-inflicted damage.

Immediate Big League Future: It’s pretty simple: If Owens is able to command the fastball, get ahead of hitters and let that devastating change go to work, he’s going to be successful. If he can’t, he’s going to struggle. This may seem like an overly simplistic view, but it’s what it boils down to. The upside here is a mid-rotation starter who piles up strikeouts, but because of the inconsistent control, there’s a non-zero chance that he’ll have to be moved to the bullpen at some point.

Fantasy Impact: Maybe this is the despondent Red Sox fan in me, but I’m not investing in Owens from a fantasy POV this season. I’m still a big fan of his long-term outlook as a No. 4/5 fantasy starter and I do think he’s fully capable of throwing a gem or two in 2015, but as of now he’s too inconsistent and poses too much of a threat to your WHIP to start. Factor in that he’s unlikely to grab a lot of wins pitching in front of an active tire fire, and the risk outweighs the reward.

The exception here would be if you’re in an AL-only or very deep mixed league and are absolutely desperate for strikeouts and wins. If that’s the case, I can see starting Owens on the road against bad teams. Just know that he’s seemingly as likely to throw six innings and strike out seven as he is to throw three innings and walk six, and it’s going to be pretty tough to determine which Owens you’ll get on a start-to-start basis despite his recent run of success.

I’ve long maintained that Owens is a slightly undervalued fantasy asset in dynasty leagues -- I think his deception is going to let him miss bats at the next level -- but he still walks too many batters to be trusted right now. Stay away in most redraft leagues, but if he struggles in his stint in the majors this year he very well might make an enticing buy-low candidate for 2016 and beyond. - Ben Carsley

Christopher Crawford is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @CVCrawfordBP
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Ben Carsley is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @bencarsley
Click here to see Ben's other articles. You can contact Ben by clicking here