July 14, 2015

Fantasy Freestyle

Bryce Harper Goes Boom

by George Bissell

Printer-friendly

Contact Author

Four months ago, Harper was voted the “most overrated player in baseball” (for the second consecutive year) by his fellow players in ESPN The Magazine. Despite having racked up 1,489 Major League plate appearances without facing a pitcher younger than him (it finally happened when he faced New York’s Jacob Lindgren on June 10th) and possessing once-in-a-generation-type natural ability, there wasn’t a fantasy analyst on the planet confident enough to forecast that Harper, coming off an injury-marred campaign the previous season, was on the precipice of blossoming into a fantasy superstar at just 22-years-old.

Granted, there were some authentic signs during spring training that Harper was finally poised for a breakout, but given his struggles to stay healthy and backslide in approach at the plate last year, he carried substantially more risk than almost any other player in re-draft formats. Investing an early round pick on Harper was the fantasy baseball equivalent of Kramer and Newman’s scheme to make an extra five cents recycling bottles and cans by driving them to Michigan in an extra mail truck. Sure, the potential for a massive payoff was there if everything broke right, but the odds of Harper blowing up like he did (or Kramer and Newman finding a way to Michigan without incident) were slim at best.

No matter how you slice it, Harper is having an incredible season. He’s emerged as a legitimate MVP candidate, slashing .339/.464/.704 with 26 home runs, 59 runs scored, 61 RBI, and four stolen bases in 343 plate appearances. He leads all of baseball with a 1.168 OPS and will make the third All-Star Game appearance of his career tonight in Cincinnati.

The burning questions now become what should fantasy owners expect from Harper going forward? Is his otherworldly performance sustainable? Finally, how does his future performance match up with his trade value? Because let’s face it, Harper’s value in a re-draft formats will never be higher than it is right now.

I won’t go full Russell Carleton “gory math alert” (seriously, read his work, it’s brilliant) to explain just how valuable Harper has been for his fantasy owners this season, because Baseball Prospectus elder fantasy statesman (if you don’t get that joke, go listen to the Flags Fly Forever podcast right now) Mike Gianella has already done that. According to his latest in-season, Rotisserie-style valuations for American League-only and National League-only formats, Harper is one of just three hitters (Paul Goldschmidt and Dee Gordon are the others) on pace to earn over $40 in the NL this year.

The concept of “value” is at the core of every fantasy baseball owner’s strategy. My esteemed Baseball Prospectus colleague Jeff Quinton could do a vastly superior job explaining the theory behind this idea, but I’ll give it a shot. If the goal is to employ a process that plays the percentages (what is most likely to occur given the information at our disposal) as often as possible, then anticipating Harper to continue to produce at his current level is unrealistic.

I’m not advocating that fantasy owners look to trade a true once in a generation type talent like Harper, especially not in keeper or dynasty formats, but lets stop for a minute and acknowledge just how far into uncharted waters Harper’s performance is venturing from a re-draft league perspective. In order to do that we need to dive into the vast ocean that is PECOTA.

In addition to the weighted-mean projections for players, Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projections also include percentiles, because forecasting isn’t an inexact science. So what do the percentiles mean exactly? Here is what Baseball Prospectus’ Colin Wyers wrote when they were first released in 2013:

“Percentiles allow us to put a range of outcomes around a single-point forecast, to illustrate how uncertain the forecast is and what range of outcomes are most likely. The percentiles, then, represent the spread of outcomes if we were to have a player go through the 2013 season thousands upon thousands of times. Imagine a bell curve, with the 50th percentile at the very peak. Twenty percent of the time, a player's results should fall in between the 40th and 60th percentiles—or 60 percent of the time, a player should perform at his 60th percentile or worse, while 40 percent of the time, he should play better.”

PECOTA 2015 Regular Season Forecast

Here is a brief look at how Harper’s pre-season forecast compares to his actual statistics through 81 games this season.

• 90th percentile: 651 PA – 91 R – 26 HR – 94 RBI – 13 SB – .304/.385/.513

• 50th percentile: 597 PA – 75 R – 21 HR – 78 RBI – 11 SB – .268/.344/.452

• 10th percentile: 543 PA – 61 R – 17 HR – 64 RBI – 9 SB – .233/.304/.393

As you can clearly see, Harper is on pace to shatter his 90th percentile PECOTA projection coming into the year (especially in the power and on-base department).

• 2015 Statistics: 343 PA – 59 R – 26 HR – 61 RBI – 4 SB – .339/.464/.704

It’s hard to blame PECOTA because Harper’s breakout season has corresponded with legitimate improvements at the plate (which have been well documented) that couldn’t have been anticipated given his past performance.

One of the best takes on Harper’s change in approach at the plate came from BP’s very own Dan Rozenson, who noted in late May how Harper has more than doubled his slugging percentage against breaking balls this season. Perhaps the most noticeable improvement can be found in regards to Harper’s plate disciple. Not only has he doubled his walk rate (18.4%) but he has also cut his strikeout rate by six percent from a year ago. Is Harper’s elite performance sustainable? It seems logical, thanks to the adjustments he has made at the plate, which have enabled him to become one of the games most feared power hitters. However, PECOTA expects at least some regression in the power categories over the second half of the season.

PECOTA Rest of Season Forecast

• 90th percentile: 323 PA – 45 R – 13 HR – 47 RBI – 6 SB – .301/.383/.515

• 50th percentile: 276 PA – 35 R – 10 HR – 37 RBI – 5 SB – .270/.348/.461

• 10th percentile: 229 PA – 27 R – 8 HR – 28 RBI – 4 SB – .239/.312/.408

Barring an injury, there is a solid chance that Harper eclipses the sacred 40-home run plateau. Even baking in a little regression, at this point in the season in a re-draft league, aside from Paul Goldschmidt or Mike Trout, there isn’t another hitter for whom you would deal Harper for straight up.

British economist John Maynard Keynes famously said, “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” He was likely referring to European economic conditions, but it has some relevance to Harper’s evolution as a hitter and the impact it has had on his statistics. We shouldn’t ignore PECOTA’s pre-season or rest of season forecasts. Don’t write them off as completely useless because Harper is a different hitter, but rather view them as indications of just how insanely good his performance has been, in relation to what PECOTA reasonably expected.

George Bissell is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @GeorgeBissell
Click here to see George's other articles. You can contact George by clicking here