BP Top 50 (07/06)
The Top 50 Fantasy Pro... (07/06)
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July 6, 2015 Fantasy RoundersBridled HorsePlatoons Target: RHB Brian Dozier 2B ($4500, +167 OPS and +.077 ISO vs. LHP) facing LHP Wei-Yin Chen ($7700, +73 OPS and +.033 ISO vs. RHB) Dozier is enjoying a breakout campaign, and though his career has been marked by southpaw domination yet right-hander decimation, the second baseman has made vast improvements this year to close his platoon split within 42 points of OPS. It could be a fluke or part of an altered approach, but Dozier's mastery of left-handed pitching makes him a major threat against a pitcher like Chen, who has some platoon issues of his own.
RHB's Adrian Gonzalez 1B ($4700, +138 OPS and +.068 ISO vs. RHP), Yasmani Grandal C ($4200, +111 OPS and +.057 ISO vs. RHP) and Joc Pederson OF ($4000, +199 OPS and +.106 ISO vs. RHP) against RHP Sean O'Sullivan ($4200, +81 OPS and +.060 ISO vs. LHB's) It was just last week that I was suggesting to avoid A-Gonz and Joc, and the combination of a strong platoon advantage and facing a weak pitcher who is particularly vulnerable to lefties puts them both back on the map. O'Sullivan has given up a batting average higher than .300 against right- and left-handed batters alike in his brief career, but the real platoon issue comes forth when looking at the power numbers, where left-handed bats have a ridiculous .242 ISO against the right-hander. Gonzalez in particular went through a power outage for a couple of months, slugging just .400 across May and June after cracking a .790 slug in April, but with two homers in his last three games he is starting to heat back up and O'Sullivan (who's the cheapest arm available tonight) is poised to be his next victim. The only question is whether Gonzalez's hand is in playing shape after getting hit by a pitch against the Mets.
RHB Buster Posey ($4500, + 125 OPS and + .082 ISO vs. LHP) is also facing a left-hander today, the Mets' Jon Niese ($7200, +45 OPS and +.011 ISO vs. RHB), so roster accordingly. He's the most expensive catcher on today's docket by $300, but the ends justify the means in this case.
Avoid: LHB's Jason Kipnis 2B ($4800, -137 OPS and -.057 ISO vs. LHP) and Michael Brantley OF ($4400, -93 OPS and -.049 ISO vs. LHP) against LHP Dallas Keuchel ($9700, -106 OPS and -.033 ISO vs. LHB) Keuchel has been tough on everybody this season, but opposing left-handers are at a special disadvantage, and the Indians lean portside with the biggest bats in their lineup. Keuchel's ascension to near-elite status combined with the platoon disadvantage makes rostering either of these Indians a risky proposition.
Steals Target: Justin Upton OF ($4000, 16-of-16 SB), Matt Kemp OF ($3900, 7-of-8 SB), and Will Venable ($3200, 6-of-7 SB) facing A.J. Burnett ($9400, opponents 16-of-24 SB). The Padres are not a heavy base-stealing team, but facing off against A.J. Burnett brings opportunities on the bases for the Friars to take advantage. Upton has been running wild this season, already matching the stolen base total of his past two seasons combined, and with another six thefts he will establish a new season high. Kemp has been bereft of power in his first season in San Diego, but he has chipped in a handful of steals with top-notch efficiency to provide a modicum of value for his fantasy owners.
Jason Heyward OF ($4000, 8-of-10 SB) and Kolten Wong 2B ($3700, 7-of-11 SB) facing Jon Lester ($9000, opponents 21-of-25 SB) Heyward and Wong are not extreme runners, but the storied struggles of Jon Lester in preventing stolen bases essentially plugs in the green light for most of the Cardinals batters, of which Heyward and Wong have pilfered the most bags this season. The fact that they're both left-hand batters swings the platoon advantage to the southpaw on the mound, but if either of these two Cardinals gets on base then he has a solid shot to pad his stolen base totals.
Avoid: Alexei Ramirez SS ($3400, 9-of-12 SB this season) facing Mark Buehrle ($6800, opponents 0-of-1 SB) Thou shalt not run on Mark Buehrle. The left-hander has stymied opposing baserunners for years, and for his career they have been successful on just 59 of 139 steal attempts, a 42-percent rate that averages out to 3.7 steals per season over his 16-year career. Only one runner has even tried thievery against Buehrle this season and he was unsuccessful, while over the last five years baserunners have gone just 13-for-32. The longtime White Sock is facing his former club tonight, and despite their familiarity with the left-hander Chicago has very little speed with which to tempt fate. Ramirez is the only White Sox player with more than five steals, and he is likely to stay chained to the bag in order to avoid making needless outs on the bases.
Recency Target: Cesar Hernandez 2B/SS ($3100), facing LHP Eric Surkamp. Cesar was one of the cheapest players available all last week, making him a popular plug-in option due to his regular gig in the number-two spot of the Philadelphia lineup. His season line is still unimpressive, but over the past 16 games he has hit a robust .431/.486/.523 with eight stolen bases, including 20 hits in his last 10 contests. Today's matchup with lefty Eric Surkamp should provide an easy head-to-head for the switch-hitting Hernandez, and the cost is still low enough to gain some extra cap room in order to roster bigger bats.
Avoid: Yasiel Puig OF ($4300), facing RHP Sean O'Sullivan Perhaps “avoid” is too harsh a word, because any Dodger is a worthwhile play today against soft Philly starter O'Sullivan, but Puig has struggled mightily over the past two weeks, to the tune of a .191/.309/.298 slash in his last 14 games and he's managed just one home run since returning from the disabled list on June 6. He was getting enough hits upon his return to ignore the lack of longballs, but his recent struggles shine a light on the fact that the Wild Horse has been easily bridled – for his career Puig has just 38 homers in 1224 plate appearances, and the power that he flashed as a rookie has not resurfaced over the last two seasons.
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Resources used for this article: Baseball Prospectus Stats and Player Cards Draft Kings player prices
Doug Thorburn is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @doug_thorburn
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I really like AJ Burnett against the Padres righties tonight, but the weather doesn't look great here in Pittsburgh.