Raising Aces: 2015 Dra... (06/19)
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June 20, 2015 Everything You Could Have Learned This WeekJune 15-19, 2015The hardest part of this weekly installment is writing this opening statement. I have to be witty and funny, but not acerbically or profanely so, because baseballprospectus.com is a Family Sabermetrics Site. (----, ----, ------------. See?!) I have to tie in baseball, preferably something that happened in the majors this week, but can't be too boring or rote. And I've got to be brief, because you don't want to go on for too long before people lose interest an—
Monday The worst of the worst right-handed hitters in baseball are predominately old switch-hitters: Panda should pull plug on switch-hitting, by Owen Watson, Just a Bit Outside
Sandoval is buried at the bottom of a group containing many aging, everyday switch-hitters, and he's more than 160 points below the league average. Another way of putting it: From the right side over the past two years and change, Sandoval has been a far weaker version of Ben Revere, who has a .665 OPS and two total home runs in a six-year career. That's quite a turnaround from Sandoval's pre-2013 numbers, when he had a combined .763 OPS as a right-handed hitter dating back to his debut in the majors. What's behind the dip in production?
Tuesday
Hey guys did you hear that correlation equals causation? Hahahaha WRONG, especially as it related to new managers and teams stringing a bunch of high-leverage hits together: Paul Molitor is the Twinspiration, by Russell Carleton, Baseball Prospectus
I created a series of binary logistic regressions, predicting whether the at-bat would end in a strikeout (or some other outcome). I inserted the control variable first. If that variable—and only that variable—were significant, then it means that the outcome of the at-bat is just a function of the relative skills of the batter and pitcher. But also entering the ring was the leverage value of the event (perhaps some events are just more common when the leverage is higher?), the name of the manager (categorical), and the interaction of manager and leverage. The really important variable here is that interaction term. If that one is significant (and for the initiated, I looked at the overall Wald value for the variable), then it means that for certain managers, there are differences in the likelihood of outcomes as leverage changes, over and above just the guys who are standing on the mound and in the batter's box. It wouldn't necessarily mean that particular manager is amazing when it comes to inspiring his players to (cliché) in a pressure situation, but it also doesn't mean that he's a (animal) (orifice) either.
Are you an exceptionally impatient MLB draftee who wants to make the majors, like, right now? Well, I hope you're a pitcher: First player from the 2015 Draft to make the big leagues, by Joseph Werner, Beyond the Box Score
Of the last 15 prospects to debut first in each class, 13 have been pitchers, six left-handers and seven right-handers. So, statistically speaking, if (recent) history is any indication it’s highly likely that another pitcher will likely become the first debuting player again.
Feelings on the designated hitter among major leaguers are...varied. Very varied: Player's View: Designated Hitter or no Designated Hitter?, by David Laurila, Fangraphs
Mike Scioscia, Angels manager: “I grew up in the National League where we never had the DH and thought we didn’t need a DH. But as I’ve managed, I’ve warmed to the idea. It doesn’t just add the offense you get from another hitter in your lineup, it also gives you more little-ball opportunities with the bottom of your lineup. In the National League, it’s tough to move a runner up with the pitcher’s spot coming up. With regular hitters all the way through the lineup, you might move runners up with your eight-hitter and try to score a run with an out. In the National League, that strategy just doesn’t play.
Wednesday
Because you swing a lot doesn't mean you're a good hitter. It doesn't mean you're a bad hitter. It doesn't mean much of anything, really: Mike Napoli and the case of the expanding strike zone, by Henry Druschel, Beyond the Box Score
Basically no relationship! If anything, patience is more highly correlated with batting success in 2015. I don't know what that means. Probably nothing. The total rate of pitches thrown in the strike zone in 2014: 44.9 percent. In 2015: 46.0 percent. Make of that what you will.
Thursday
Perceived velocity may be the next big thing, but it isn't quite universally significant yet: Pitches in Radar Gun Are Slower Than They Appear: Identifying Baseball's Perceived Velocity Kings, by Ben Lindbergh, Grantland
After looking at Capps’s stats, it might be hard to believe that perceived velocity isn’t baseball’s next big idea, but Capps is one of a kind. His command doesn’t seem to have suffered since he took flight, but it’s possible that for many pitchers, an attempt to increase extension would lead to an elevated walk rate, which has always been an issue for Walden. More importantly, for most players, the radar matches the drapes. About 40 percent of pitchers in this sample have perceived velocities within 0.5 mph of their actual velocities. And among all pitchers, the correlation between actual and perceived four-seamer velocity is 0.95, which means that pitchers who rate highly in one category usually rate highly in the other. Inside pitches tend to produce the weakest contact...which makes a recent Carlos Correa home run all the more incredible: Let's Watch Carlos Correa Do Something Amazing, by Jeff Sullivan, Fangraphs
The pitch Correa hit against Kendrick belongs in that first column. It’s the group with the lowest average batted-ball speed. Everything here is intuitive — the closer you get to the middle of the plate, the better the quality of contact. Batters don’t hit those inside pitches hard. They’re very difficult to turn around, which is why the inside fastball is such a treasured weapon.
Friday
Sliders and splitters get the most whiffs; Knuckeballs, across the spectrum, average out to have zero horizontal movement; and many more interesting PitchF/X things: Pitch-Type Benchmarks, by Dan Rozenson, Baseball Prospectus
Some more thoughts: You actually CAN win while devoting a buncha money to one guy on your roster. There just have to be a few other things working in your favor: Eliminating Teams Using the Thome Corollary, by Miles Wray, Fangraphs
So what about the 2010 Giants and 2003 Marlins? They weren’t big spenders, and they actually are the two biggest violators of the rule. Basically, if a team violates The Thome Corollary to such a degree, they must do two things in order to also win:
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