<< Previous Article

Minor League Update: G... (06/18)

<< Previous Column
Eyewitness Accounts: J... (06/11)

Next Column >>
Eyewitness Accounts: J... (06/25)

Next Article >>

What You Need to Know:... (06/18)

June 18, 2015

Eyewitness Accounts

June 18, 2015

by BP Prospect Staff

Printer-friendly

Rob Kaminsky
Brent Honeywell
Rob Refsnyder
A.J. Reed
Michael Conforto

Rob Kaminsky


	Born: 09/02/1994 (Age: 20)
	Bats: Right	Throws: Left
	Height: 5' 11"	Weight: 191

Build: Short, thin; needs to add some strength in lower half but doesn't have a lot of room for growth in frame.

Mechanics: Low three-quarters arm slot; not smooth or fluid arm action, some violence in explosion towards plate, does not gather well at top of delivers, rushes through; does not use lower half enough; arm action is stiff and short on back end; short stride leaves him throwing uphill over his front side.

Evaluator	Jeff Moore
Report Date	06/10/2015
Affiliate	Palm Beach Cardinals (High-A, Cardinals)
Dates Seen	06/05/2015
OFP/Risk	55/Moderate
Realistic	50, No. 4/5 starter
MLB ETA	2017
Video	No

Pitch Type	Present Grade	Future Grade	Sitting Velocity	Peak Velocity	Report
Fastball	45	55	86-92	92	Velocity: 55/55 Movement: 45/50 Command: 50/55 Wide range of velocity on fastball, added and subtracted with pitch throughout game; some arm-side run, not enough to generate consistent ground balls; can flatten out easily due to lack of height and lower release point, no downward plane; average command, might not have much room for improvement due to effort in delivery.
Curveball	50	55	77-81	81	Velocity: 50/50 Movement: 55/55 Command: 60/60 Short, downward movement, did not show good depth; was able to change shape and throw slower with more break at times; used sparingly early in game and only against lefties, used against righties only third time through the order; commanded it well, threw for strikes consistently and kept low in zone.
Changeup	45	55	77-78	81	Velocity: 50/50 Movement: 45/50 Command: 50/55 A work in progress but has the potential to be an effective third pitch; throws for strikes consistently; can get too firm and overthrow; works best in high 70s to create velocity differential from fastball; shows more consistent arm-side movement than fastball; replicates his arm speed well; comfortable throwing it to same-side hitters; will need some vertical movement to miss bats but has potential.

A lack of size and fluidity to his delivery leave Kaminsky without much projection despite being just 20 years old. He shows good pitchability for a player his age, understanding how to add and subtract with both his fastball and curveball and showing a feel for the development of his changeup, which has the potential to be a third above-average offering. None of the pitches showed as potential plus offerings, however, leaving him with a relatively high floor, but a low ceiling as a back-end starter.

Brent Honeywell


	Born: 03/31/1995 (Age: 20)
	Bats: Right	Throws: Right
	Height: 6' 2"	Weight: 180

Athletic frame with room for projection; up-tempo worker from the windup, slower out of the stretch; above-average arm speed; three-quarters arm slot; stab; head whack; spine tilt; clean drive and landing; easy delivery.

Evaluator	Mauricio Rubio Jr.
Report Date	06/10/2015
Affiliate	Bowling Green Hot Rods (Low-A, Rays)
Dates Seen
OFP/Risk	55/High
Realistic	50 - No. 4 starter
MLB ETA	2018
Video	No

Pitch Type	Present Grade	Future Grade	Sitting Velocity	Peak Velocity	Report
Fastball	60	65	90-94		Command - 40/50 Movement - 45/55 Can reach back for more velocity as the situation dictates; mild run; flashed above-average command; can elevate effectively.
Screwball	50	60	74-79		Command - 40/50 Movement - 50/60 Bat-missing potential at the highest level; 1-7 movement, flashed a few with sharp downward action, pitch got loose and flatter as the start progressed; command comes and goes on the offering.
Changeup	40	50	80-84		Command - 40/50 Movement - 40/50 Inconsistent offering; flashes above-average fade; below-average deception, arm speed matches the curveball and not the fastball; firms up and gets flat in the zone.
Curveball	40	50	69-74		Command - 40/45 Movement - 50/55 11-5 movement; inconsistent arm-speed replication; flashes sharp tilt; doesn't throw the offering for quality strikes.

Drafted by the Tampa Bay Rays in the second round of the 2014 MLB June Amateur Draft from Walters State Community College (Morristown, TN).

Honeywell started his outing strong, displaying a plus fastball and flashing an above-average curve and a plus screwball. Honeywell waned after four innings however, as the plus fastball slid back into average territory and the secondaries weren't as crisp. Honeywell's frame can add good weight and his mechanics can allow his command to improve.

Rob Refsnyder


	Born: 03/26/1991 (Age: 24)
	Bats: Right	Throws: Right
	Height: 6' 1"	Weight: 205
	Primary Position: 2B
	Secondary Position:

Well proportioned, medium build; broad chest, sloped shoulders; physically mature.

Evaluator	Al Skorupa
Report Date	06/12/2015
Dates Seen	05-25-2015; 05-26-2015; 05-27-2015
Affiliate	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (AAA, Yankees)

MLB ETA	Risk Factor	OFP	Realistic Role	Video
Mid 2015	Very Low	50	50; Second-Division Second Baseman	No

Tool	Future Grade	Report
Hit	55	Average bat speed; even stance with wide base and knees spaced; arms start high and load at shoulder height; leg lift and smooth, efficient weight transfer; simple swing mechanics that he repeats well; line-drive swing plane; plus plate discipline; good plan of attack at the plate; identifies secondary pitches well and track well.
Power	35	40 raw; mostly gaps; swing geared towards contact and line drives; does not sell out to drive ball in the air; uses whole field, but best power straight away; will jump on and hammer mistakes to pull side.
Baserunning/Speed	45	Below-average raw speed; plays slightly up because of Baseball IQ; below-average foot speed and acceleration; not a real stolen-base threat and shouldn’t be running, but can take one here and there if pitcher forgets about him.
Glove	45	Fringe-average range; actions and mobility fringy and hands inconsistent; capable of making tough play and then booting an easy one; below-average instincts and feel in the infield; below-average clock.
Arm	45	Below-average arm strength; above-average accuracy.

50; second-division second baseman. Refsnyder will hit for average and get on base, but provides little in the way of speed, power, or defensive value.

A.J. Reed


	Born: 05/10/1993 (Age: 22)
	Bats: Left	Throws: Left
	Height: 6' 4"	Weight: 240
	Primary Position: 1B
	Secondary Position:

A big boy. Slightly portly but he carries the weight well with broad shoulders and well-proportioned lower-half.

Evaluator	Christopher Crawford
Report Date	06/13/2015
Dates Seen	06/12/2015
Affiliate	Lancaster JetHawks (High-A, Astros)

MLB ETA	Risk Factor	OFP	Realistic Role	Video
2017	Medium	45	Bench bat.	No

Two-way player in college, appeared loose but focused.

Tool	Future Grade	Report
Hit	40	Some feel for hitting, but a lot of things working against him; bat speed is only average, and while there's certainly strength in the swing, that along with the length leads to lots of swing and miss; swing does stay in the zone with leverage and creates backspin, so chance to hit for average isn't completely out of the question; did recognize spin well, wasn't going up to look for walks, but very patient in his three plate appearances, easy to see why his on-base percentage is so much higher than the batting average.
Power	60	Ball jumps off the bat; swing has some uppercut but it isn't forced, and he gets excellent hip rotation and weight with a short load; keeps his hands in and can crush anything middle-in, and arms are long enough to create extension and hit the ball out of the park the other way; won't turn any singles into doubles with speed, either.
Baserunning/Speed	30	Not an athlete; clocked at 4.37 on ground ball to second baseman; zero second gear; a clogger in every sense of the word, a guy you will need to pinch run for late in ball games.
Glove	50	Showed soft hands at first base, but footwork around the bag was very much a work in progress, and he looked anxious on some throws; lack of speed will keep this from ever being anything more than an average grade.
Arm	60	Former pitcher at Kentucky, throws hard zip and as you would expect from a former SEC pitcher, plenty of accuracy.

It's important to keep in mind that Reed is still relatively new to being just a position player, so the progress he's shown is something to be admired. That being said, there's still a lot of work to be done here if he's going to be a regular at first base, and as impressive as the approach and power is, three true outcome players are an extremely volatile bunch. The ceiling is an average starter at first base capable of hitting 25 to 30 homers a year, with Matt Stairs off the bench as a floor.

Michael Conforto


	Born: 03/01/1993 (Age: 22)
	Bats: Left	Throws: Right
	Height: 6' 1"	Weight: 211
	Primary Position: LF
	Secondary Position:

Sturdy frame; short arms; thick thighs; maxed frame.

Evaluator	Tucker Blair
Report Date	06/13/2015
Dates Seen	6/9/15 - 6/11/15
Affiliate	Binghamton Mets (AA, Mets)

MLB ETA	Risk Factor	OFP	Realistic Role	Video
2015	Low	50	45; Second-Division Starter	No

Professional on the field the entire series.

Tool	Future Grade	Report
Hit	50	Above-average bat speed; uppercut swing; short arms help quicken bat through zone; lacks extension; quiet bottom half; mild load; stays balanced; recognizes spin; premium approach; uppercut and lack of extension will give issues handling hard run outside and FB on the hands inside.
Power	50	Plus raw power; uppercut swing and above-average bat speed; power can play average in game.
Baserunning/Speed	40	4.32 home to first; lacks a second gear; speed plays slightly better in left field.
Glove	40	Adventurous in left field; below-average reads and routes; footwork is inconsistent; pure left-field profile.
Arm	40	Average arm strength; plays down and lacks carry due to short arms and poor footwork.

Conforto displays an average bat, which will allow him to play as a regular in the majors. He is a left-field-only profile, which hinders his overall value. Conforto will hit enough to be a regular, but I did not see anything more than an average regular. There is minimal risk, as he was a seasoned college player.

Round Drafted: first round (10th overall), 2014
Why: Seasoned college bat with potential for average hit tool and power; quick moving.

Related Content: Prospects, Scouting, Minor Leagues

9 comments have been left for this article.

BP Comment Quick Links

code of conduct

delatopia

(19303)

An uninspiring collection of projections. Not arguing with them in any way, just pointing out that I've heard a fair bit about all of these guys in the past year, so it's interesting that the estimates of their future impact feel so low. I think Refsnyder is the only one whose projection matches the middling reports I'd heard about him previously.

Then again, a #4 starter projection is nothing to sneeze at; I guess anytime I hear about a starting pitcher candidate, I hope/assume/expect he's going to be MOR (#3) or higher.

Jun 18, 2015 03:57 AM

link

rating: 0

Tucker Blair

BP staff

(80223)

I think your second paragraph resembles our thought process here. A 50 OFP is nothing to sneeze at, that's a major league regular and consistent contributor. Likewise with a pitcher, as you noted.

Jun 18, 2015 09:21 AM

link

Bellin Detances

(71724)

So, Al, if I can call you Al... based on your viewing, you think Refsnyder can stick at 2B? I saw him in spring training and it looked questionable, to be charitable.

Jun 18, 2015 09:11 AM

link

rating: 0

Al Skorupa

BP staff

(39403)

Haha... feel free to call me Al!

I do think he's a 2B. I just think he's fringe to below average defensively at 2B. He has made a tough play going up the middle and then shortly thereafter bungled an easy one in my viewings a couple times (going back previous seasons here as well). I think he will look better defensively on any given day, but in terms of what you're going to get regularly I think it's something short of an average defender at 2B. Different teams have different philosophies, but most would be fine with Refsnyder's defense if they believe in the bat. He really doesn't profile anywhere else, either. If you don't think he's a 2B at all he's basically a non-prospect/emergency LF. I did see him play the outfield in the Cape Cod League, but his footspeed/range isn't an asset out there either.

Thinking of the discussion about role 5's above here as well with these comments. Refsnyder will hit and get on base at a good clip. He' a big league regular 2B for me. Teams start worse players and I think in the minds of fans there are lots of Role 5s that FANS think are really good big leaguers, but teams/execs/scouts don't value quite as highly. Refsnyder just the kind of guy who can come in and start somewhere, do fairly well, hit for AVG and be a solution for the rest of the season... but when the front office regroups in the fall/winter they're going to be looking for a place to upgrade and 2B will look like someplace they can get better. His game has a whole lot of "near average" and not a lot of "impact."

Jun 18, 2015 10:59 AM

link

Bellin Detances

(71724)

Thanks, Al! It confirms my thinking that he might be the Yankees' starting 2B next season, but that there may not be much longevity for him with the team.

Jun 18, 2015 12:17 PM

link

rating: 0

hyprvypr

(11082)

The best part of these series is that you get a realistic, no-fluff perspective of these prospects. Not every prospect is a future .290 hitter with 25 homer power and good wheels. Sometimes in our reduced offense environment of today's MLB, a guy who hits .270/.340/.380 and can run a bit is a very solid contributor.

Jun 18, 2015 09:29 AM

link

rating: 1

Dgalloway15

(82613)

I want to see what an 80 grade screwball looks like

Jun 18, 2015 11:23 AM

link

rating: 0

DudeAbides

(85228)

Lenny Dykstra is an 80 grade screwball these days.

Jun 18, 2015 11:39 AM

link

rating: 3

oldbopper

(79716)

I understand that Christy Mathewson's "fadeaway" was an 80 grade.

Jun 18, 2015 17:55 PM

link

rating: 0

You must be a Premium subscriber or have a Fantasy subscription to post a comment.
Not a subscriber? Sign up today!

<< Previous Article

Minor League Update: G... (06/18)

<< Previous Column
Eyewitness Accounts: J... (06/11)

Next Column >>
Eyewitness Accounts: J... (06/25)

Next Article >>

What You Need to Know:... (06/18)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS Playoff Prospectus: Come Undone BP En Espanol: Previa de la NLCS: Cubs vs. D... Playoff Prospectus: How Did This Team Get Ma... Playoff Prospectus: Too Slow, Too Late Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and ALCS Gam... Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and NLCS Gam... Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Preview: Cubs vs. D...	MORE FROM JUNE 18, 2015 Minor League Update: Games of June 17, 2015 Fantasy Rounders: K's or Death Five to Watch: 3-2-1 Contact!, Pitcher Editi... The Stash List: 10th Edition, 2015 Fantasy Freestyle: Desert Ray BP Boston The BP Wayback Machine: Scouting Gerrit Cole...
MORE BY BP PROSPECT STAFF 2015-06-25 - Eyewitness Accounts: June 25, 2015 2015-06-24 - Notes from the Field: June 24, 2015 2015-06-22 - Monday Morning Ten Pack: June 22, 2015 2015-06-18 - Eyewitness Accounts: June 18, 2015 2015-06-15 - Monday Morning Ten Pack: June 15, 2015 2015-06-08 - Monday Morning Ten Pack: June 8, 2015 2015-06-04 - Eyewitness Accounts: June 4, 2015 More...	MORE EYEWITNESS ACCOUNTS 2015-07-02 - Eyewitness Accounts: July 2, 2015 2015-06-30 - Eyewitness Accounts: June 30, 2015 2015-06-25 - Eyewitness Accounts: June 25, 2015 2015-06-18 - Eyewitness Accounts: June 18, 2015 2015-06-11 - Eyewitness Accounts: June 11, 2015 2015-06-04 - Eyewitness Accounts: June 4, 2015 2015-05-28 - Eyewitness Accounts: May 28, 2015 More...