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March 12, 2004
Prospectus Triple Play
Cleveland Indians, Los Angeles Dodgers, Seattle Mariners
by Baseball Prospectus
- Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind: Few people noticed when it came time to vote last fall, but Indians left fielder Jody Gerut was among the most productive rookies in the American League in 2003. In fact, according to a recent article by David Lipman on ESPN.com:
"...Gerut's OPS mark ranked 61st in baseball, placing him right between Carlos Lee and Rondell White, meaning that at age 25, he played last season as a solid major league regular. Yankees outfielder Hideki Matsui, lauded for his 106 RBI, finished 30 spots lower. Perhaps the general public's affinity for RBI and batting average (Matsui hit .287 to Gerut's .279) and the spotlight of playing in New York got Matsui 10 first-place Rookie of the Year votes to none for Gerut. He may have fallen short in the hardware department, but Jody Gerut clearly had a great season in 2003 should be a very significant presence in the middle of the Cleveland lineup." However, as Chris Kahrl did a fantastic job pointing out recently, OPS--as an end-all measure of offensive performance--is woefully inadequate, leaving just as much out of the picture as it includes. For one, it neglects the shape of the performance in question (i.e., is this guy a lead-footed masher who swings at everything; or is he a high-average waterbug who walks like there's no tomorrow, but can't get the ball out of the infield?). And for another, it ignores things like park-illusions and baserunning, which aren't trivial. That said, since we at Baseball Prospectus are kind of in the business of developing more useful ways to evaluate baseball statisitics, let's take a look how Gerut's translated performance--EqBA, EqOBP, EqSLG, etc.--compares to that of Godzilla. Is the difference between the two players as large as a simple OPS ranking suggests?
Player EqBA EqOBP EqSLG EqA MLVr VORP
Jody Gerut .282 .341 .502 .280 .098 17.9
Hideki Matsui .292 .362 .443 .278 .083 22.5
In a word, no, with a few, minor caveats. Gerut was more productive on a per-PA basis--as evidenced by his notably higher MLVr--but since Matsui received more playing time, he accumulated a higher VORP total. All in all, though, they were roughly the same player--as evidenced by the strikingly similar EqA figures--and not nearly as divergent as an OPS ranking might suggest. - Mr. Blue Sky: Unlike some of their American League counterparts, the Cleveland Indians have a relatively large portion of their roster currently devoted to individuals who've yet reach their prime. And yet, while this might not bode well for their success in the immediate future, it does mean that there's room for growth. Right? Let's take a look at position-players currently on the 40-man roster under the age of 28, and their respective Breakout, Improve, and Collapse rates, as handed down by the gods from Mt. PECOTA (OK, not really):
Player Pos Birthday Break Improve Collapse
----------------------------------------------------------
41 Victor Martinez C 12/23/78 14.5% 37.7% 33.8%
48 Travis Hafner 1B 06/03/77 16.9% 36.4% 28.2%
16 Jhonny Peralta SS 05/28/82 37.3% 55.6% 30.0% *
7 Brandon Phillips 2B 06/28/81 43.8% 71.4% 15.1% *
24 Milton Bradley CF 04/15/78 5.1% 31.1% 30.8%
10 Coco Crisp CF/LF 11/01/79 25.3% 46.0% 26.2%
6 Alex Escobar RF 09/06/78 26.9% 58.1% 29.2%
9 Jody Gerut RF/LF 09/18/77 15.1% 42.4% 27.9%
38 Ryan Ludwick RF/LF 07/13/78 25.7% 50.5% 28.9%
65 Grady Sizemore LF 08/02/82 14.1% 39.8% 29.9%
* Definite example of the "Ugueto Effect"
Surprisingly, only four of the 10 players listed are expected to improve upon their performance in 2003, and two of those (Peralta and Phillips) were below replacement-level in '03, meaning that it won't take much to get better. Is it possible that we've been overrating the Indians' rebuilding effort, or is this just another example of PECOTA hedging its bets? Barring sufficient evidence, we're going to have to go with the latter option. Victor Martinez is a year removed from being arguably the best prospect in all of baseball, and has absolutely demolished minor-league at every step along the way. He's ready. Travis Hafner will never hit for a high average, but his secondary skills are major-league ready (.231 ISO and .074 ISD in 2003), and he's already 27. Ludwick's been on the map for a while, and doesn't have the upside that Hafner or Martinez does, but hasn't ever received regular playing time, either. Grady Sizemore is younger than a few of BP's interns, but has a nicely rounded skill-set, and could be taking ABs from Coco Crisp as early as July. - Race to the Bottom: Who will be the least productive Mariner position player to make the team's Opening Day 2004 roster? Please, no wagering on the contestants:
All have gotten some press in Seattle as potential bench players, though how much of that is standard spring training media sausage-making is up for debate. Let's go to the Batcomputer...err, the PECOTA projections. And just for the heck of it, throw in fourth outfielder Quinton McCracken, because nothing spices up a recipe like a little pinch of Quinton. Here are their park-adjusted projected lines, along with what they'll be worth compared to a freely-available scrub that can do their job
Scrub AVG OBP SLG VORP
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Owens .250 .297 .343 -5.5
Santiago .246 .318 .339 -0.5
Ugueto .234 .293 .327 -0.4
Bloomquist .247 .307 .324 -0.3
McCracken .258 .317 .370 -0.3
Bocachica, unfortunately, doesn't get a projection. But in his four years with L.A. and Detroit, he managed to hit .216/.261/.369 in 333 ABs. He hit 242/.313/.432 in part-time duty for the Toledo Mud Hens last year. Yes, he played 95 games in Triple-A for baseball's most abjectly, absurdly awful franchise, and now he's competing for a bench spot on a team that's supposedly competing for the AL West title. That Toledo line translated out to a .228 major league EqA...which, coincidentally, is what Eric Owens is projected to hit this year. But without a projection, we must disqualify Hiram. So the winner is Eric Owens! And the loser is everyone in Seattle! - But wait, that's not all: X-rays of Edgar Martinez's stiff neck revealed a bone spur that's been limiting the slugger's ability to turn his neck. The team's previous plan to work around Edgar's usual short absences due to his balky hamstrings was to DH Quinten McCracken. Using advanced napkin mathematics (EQR), we can calculate that the team would give up at least a third of a run every game McCracken DHs instead of Martinez. A third of a run a game. That's pretty huge. Stay healthy, Edgar.
- After discovering the money, they were immediately hired to hide it again: Consulting firm Deloitte and Touche--known around the Puget Sound for their work sending local AT&T Wireless jobs to India--pegged the Seattle Mariners as the fourth-richest sports franchise in the United States, taking in $208.3 million in revenue. The Red Sox had estimated revenues only $4 million higher than the Mariners, in third place. Boston is expected to carry a payroll of about $130 million heading into the 2004 season. The Mariners may start the season with about $86 million in actual payroll commitments. Deloitte said they based their figures on "financial statements or other reliable sources." The Mariners declined comment.
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