June 15, 2015

The 2014 Redraft

How Much Has Changed?

by Baseball Prospectus

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It has now been 375 days since the first round of the 2014 MLB draft kicked off with the Houston Astros by selecting Brady Aiken. Of course, we know how things have changed with Aiken, who failed to sign, had Tommy John surgery and was drafted 17^th overall by Cleveland last week. While the last calendar year or so hasn’t been that eventful for the names below, it’s been eventful enough that we decided it was time to break back out one of our favorite exercises from last year: the redraft.

In this conceit, 27 of your favorite Baseball Prospectus writers set out to find just how different that first round would look if we had all of the information we have now. Aiken was just one of seven true first-round picks from last year who went undrafted this time around, including the Brewers’ selection at no. 12, Kodi Medeiros. Without spoiling anything else, here is how the action unfolded:

1:1 Houston Astros
Actual Selection: Brady Aiken
Re-Draft Selection: Carlos Rodon, LHP (2014 no. 3 pick)
Reason: The chance to slot a big league ready starter of Rodon’s caliber into the rotation for the first place Astros was too enticing to pass up. Jeff Luhnow injected with truth serum (and the knowledge that the Astros would be six games over .500 at this point) would likely say that, in retrospect, this is the choice that should have been made last year. —J.J. Jansons

1:2 Miami Marlins
Actual Selection: Tyler Kolek
Re-Draft Selection: Jeff Hoffman, RHP (2014 no. 9 pick)
Reason: Hoffman's pure stuff rivals anyone's and I thought he could be a special arm heading into this draft. Seeing him a year removed from Tommy John surgery and back hitting the upper 90's with his fastball made this an easy choice for me. —Al Skorupa

1:3 Chicago White Sox
Actual Selection: Carlos Rodon
Re-Draft Selection: Kyle Schwarber, C/OF (2014 no. 4 pick)
Reason: The Cubs may have been the only team who realized Schwarber was the most polished bat in the draft at the time, but at this point, the entire industry realizes it. The industry is still split on whether or not he can catch, but I believe he is competent enough behind the plate to handle it at least on a part-time basis, greatly increasing his value on a major league roster. —Jeff Moore

1:4 Chicago Cubs
Actual Selection: Kyle Schwarber
Re-Draft Selection: Aaron Nola, RHP (2014 no. 7 pick)
Reason: While Nola isn't the sexiest pick this high in the draft, he is nearly guaranteed to be a high-quality Major League contributor at a position where the Cubs desperately need support over the next few years. Nola's ability to move quickly through the system and provide at least mid-rotation innings in short order is very appealing for a club with a parade of young position players entering the big league lineup, and a need for more pitching over the long term. —Mark Anderson

1:5 Minnesota Twins
Actual Selection: Nick Gordon
Re-Draft Selection: Trea Turner, SS (2014 no. 13 pick)
Reason: Turner's athleticism in the field and continued ability to hit at higher levels makes him a "best talent available" choice, and I don't even mean that dismissively. He's proven he can hit in the Texas League, and that's not as easy as you'd think. —Kate Morrison

1:6 Seattle Mariners
Actual Selection: Alex Jackson
Re-Draft Selection: Michael Kopech (2014 no. 33 pick)
Reason: Kopech throws harder, throws more strikes, and all with a better delivery than he showed at this time last year. The progression is already apparent. The right-hander sat 96-99 MPH in my viewing out of the windup. —Ryan Parker

1:7 Philadelphia Phillies
Actual Selection: Aaron Nola
Re-Draft Selection: Bradley Zimmer, OF (2014 no. 21 pick)
Reason: Zimmer has the ability to stick in centerfield and provide five average or better tools. He is an all-around player with an athletic frame and high floor. Even if the power only plays to average in the majors, he provides strong value. —Tucker Blair

1:8 Colorado Rockies
Actual Selection: Kyle Freeland
Re-Draft Selection: Michael Conforto, OF (2014 no. 10 pick)
Reason: Am I being too conservative? Maybe, but if I'm the Rockies, I'm leery of investing first round money in a pitcher that I don't feel very strongly about. I feel better taking Conforto, an outfielder that's already close to the majors and a guy who should hit for years to come. —Brendan Gawlowski

1:9 Toronto Blue Jays
Actual Selection: Jeff Hoffman
Re-Draft Selection: Nick Gordon, SS (2014 no. 5 pick)
Reason: Gordon’s tools are too much to pass up here, despite an unproductive spring as a 19-year-old in the Midwest League. He’s a sure bet to stick at shortstop, flashes all the elements of a future plus hitter, and should grow in to some power. —Greg Wellemeyer

1:10 New York Mets
Actual Selection: Michael Conforto
Re-Draft Selection: Brandon Finnegan, LHP (2014 no. 17 pick)
Reason: After Gordon was taken one pick ahead of me, I went with a pitcher that has already contributed to the big league club. He's pitched well the five games this year out of the bullpen and is only 22 years old. —Rob Willer

1:11 Toronto Blue Jays
Actual Selection: Max Pentecost
Re-Draft Selection: Alex Jackson, OF (2014 no. 6 pick)
Reason: One of the (if not the) top prep bats in the draft, Jackson is already rebounding from an icey cold start in the Midwest League. —Harry Pavlidis

1:12 Milwaukee Brewers
Actual Selection: Kodi Medeiros
Re-Draft Selection: Tyler Kolek, RHP (2014 no. 2 pick)
Reason: Kolek is off to a rough professional start, but it is difficult to completely ignore the upside that led the Marlins to pick him #2 overall in last year's draft. The Brewers are likely to be in rebuild mode shortly, and while trades will bring back some major league talent, Milwaukee needs to gamble on a couple of guys with front line potential, and Kolek still could fit that profile. —Mike Gianella

1:13 San Diego Padres
Actual Selection: Trea Turner
Re-Draft Selection: Grant Holmes, RHP (2014 no. 22 pick)
Reason: Always go with the undersized right-hander in these exercises. They've overcome so much to get here and will try twice as hard as everybody else. (Actually, go with Holmes because he touches 98, is striking out a dozen per nine in the Midwest League, has a present breaking ball, and his name gets him 60 percent of the way to True Ace status all by itself.) —Sam Miller

1:14 San Francisco Giants
Actual Selection: Tyler Beede
Re-Draft Selection: Brent Honeywell, RHP (2014 no. 72 pick)
Reason: It’s hard not to get excited about a guy whose best off-speed pitch is a screwball and carries himself with more confidence than Ron Swanson in your local hardware store. —George Bissell

1:15 Los Angeles Angels
Actual Selection: Sean Newcomb
Re-Draft Selection: Cole Tucker, SS (2014 no. 24 pick)
Reason: The tools are on the raw side and the developmental curve is likely to be longer, but Tucker offers the type of stick that can outkick the typical offensive value of the position, and early reports as a pro have indicated that the glove sticking at the position can be a reality. Consider me onboard. —Chris Mellen

1:16 Arizona Diamondbacks
Actual Selection: Touki Toussaint
Re-Draft Selection: Derek Fisher, OF (2014 no. 37 pick)
Reason: A college performer, Fisher is showing his skills translate to pro ball quite nicely as well. He's got plus speed, and while he may not stick in center, it certainly can play on the base paths. Add in potential plus power and an average hit tool and you're looking at a pretty strong offensive performer down the road. —Sahadev Sharma

1:17 Kansas City Royals
Actual Selection: Brandon Finnegan
Re-Draft Selection: Luis Ortiz, RHP (2014 no. 30 pick)
Reason: While Touki was tempting in this spot, I grabbed one of my favorite arms of the 2014 draft class, Luis Ortiz. He has a sturdy frame, a fastball that has plus potential, a nasty slider, a developing changeup, and the swagger you like to see from a shutdown pitcher. The right-hander also has a sub-2.00 ERA in A-ball as a 19-year-old. I'm all in. —J.P. Breen

1:18 Washington Nationals
Actual Selection: Erick Fedde
Re-Draft Selection: Kyle Freeland, LHP (2014 no. 8 pick)
Reason: Admittedly, Freeland's durability and delivery are worrisome. But he went in the top-10 in real life for good reason: he has command and feel over a deep, above-average arsenal. The aforementioned reasons will probably keep Freeland from his no. 2 ceiling, yet there's no sense in feeling down after you land a near-ready big-league starter at no. 18. —R.J. Anderson

1:19 Cincinnati Reds
Actual Selection: Nick Howard
Re-Draft Selection: Jack Flaherty, RHP (2014 no. 34 pick)
Reason: Thought long and hard about Tyler Beede here, but Flaherty's performance at a young age (19) in his first pro season gives me confidence, and I think he slipped too far due to signability last year. Here, his slot value of $2.09mm is right around what he actually got at 34. There's also his presence in the vaunted Cardinals’ player development machine, although counting that in his favor seems a little unfair, as in this counterfactual, he's going to the Reds who, um, don't have a player development machine. —Rian Watt

1:20 Tampa Bay Rays
Actual Selection: Casey Gillaspie
Re-Draft Selection: Max Pentecost, C (2014 no. 11 pick)
Reason: I also thought about Beede here, but at the end of the day Pentecost's feel for hitting and positional value is too much to overlook. Yes, he's barely played since being drafted thanks to shoulder injuries, but all the tools that once had Pentecost labeled as a potential top-five pick should be intact, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him move quickly through the low minors once healthy. —Ben Carsley

1:21 Cleveland Indians
Actual Selection: Bradley Zimmer
Re-Draft Selection: Touki Toussaint, RHP (2014 no. 16 pick)
Reason: I was really excited that Toussaint fell to me here because he could easily be the best pitcher to come out of this draft. He's struggled a bit in his transition to pro ball, but he's still only 18 years old and the projection is there. BP's prospect staff gave him the potential for two 70-grade pitches (fastball and curve), and one 60-grade pitch (change). He might have the highest ceiling of any pitcher in this draft, though there's an admittedly long road to get there. At the end of the day I'm a sucker for guys with a 97-MPH fastball and a potential plus-plus curveball, and that's exactly what Toussaint has. —Jeff Long

1:22 Los Angeles Dodgers
Actual Selection: Grant Holmes
Re-Draft Selection: Forrest Wall, 2B (2014 no. 35 pick)
Reason: Wall being drafted this high as a second baseman with labrum surgery in his past speaks to how highly his bat is touted, and he's athletic enough for a move to the outfield to be a possibility. Wall raked in the Pioneer League in 2014, and while his numbers in the Sally are a bit more pedestrian, he is also quite young for the level. —Ian Frazer

1:23 Detroit Tigers
Actual Selection: Derek Hill
Re-Draft Selection: Derek Hill, OF (2014 no. 23 pick)
Reason: Isn't this convenient? I thought the Tigers got a steal at this spot last year, and even though Hill isn't off to a memorable start to his pro career, the tools are still there to be at least a plus defender in center field with plenty of speed. The development of his hit and power tools will determine whether he's a regular or a potential star, but poor performance in an aggressive full-season assignment shouldn't dim the shine on his future very much. —Bret Sayre

1:24 Pittsburgh Pirates
Actual Selection: Cole Tucker
Re-Draft Selection: Casey Gillaspie, 1B (2014 no. 20 pick)
Reason: Gillaspie has loft from the left side and hits line drives from the right, and that's the best way for batters from those sides of the plate to hit. He isn't going to win any MVPs, but I think he's being sold a bit short in terms of ceiling. Now if the Rays would just get him out of the Midwest League, so he could prove some of these things... —Matthew Trueblood

1:25 Oakland Athletics
Actual Selection: Matt Chapman
Re-Draft Selection: Sean Newcomb, LHP (2014 no. 15 pick)
Reason: I was anticipating snapping up A.J. Reed and his gloriously playable plus-plus power here, but instead found myself faced with a choice between two of my top-rated pitchers in the class, Newcomb and Tyler Beede. It's a classic upside vs. floor debate here, and Beede's polish and pitchability was awfully tough to pass up here. Newcomb's command has been a step behind expected, but the big lefty has a body to hang 220 innings on and while the arsenal is unrefined, it is deep and shows enough raw materials to project wondrous things—should he figure out how to harness it. I'll make the upside play on the projectable cold-weather lefty figuring it out and developing into the no. 2 starter I think he can become. —Wilson Karaman

1:26 Boston Red Sox
Actual Selection: Michael Chavis
Re-Draft Selection: Braxton Davidson, 1B/OF (2014 no. 32 pick)
Reason: This was not easy, as there were several players still on the board who I liked a great deal coming into the 2014 draft. I couldn't pass on Davidson though, as I feel he has the most offensive upside of any prep bat from the class; with a chance for a plus hit tool and above-average power from the left side. If he can't stay in left field, this pick will look foolish, but I think there's just enough athleticism and arm strength for him to play there for at least the short term. It's worth the risk at 26, anyway. —Christopher Crawford

1:27 St Louis Cardinals
Actual Selection: Luke Weaver
Re-Draft Selection: Tyler Beede, RHP (2014 no. 14 pick)
Reason: As with the pick before this one, there were several tantalizing options that cover both upside and security, but none offered the security that Beede does. He's made positive adjustments since being drafted into the Giants organization, and I think offers a great chance to be not just a major leaguer, but a mid-rotation starter. At 27, that's more than I can ask for. —Craig Goldstein