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June 10, 2015 Fantasy RoundersTake a BauerThe Bats Dustin Pedroia, 2B ($4100) vs. LHP: .306/.391/.460 in 1562 PA vs. RHP: .297/.356/.439 in 3858 PA Fenway: .314/.377/.481 in 2706 PA Road: .285/.355/.408 in 2714 PA
Pedroia has hit lefties better than right-handers in his career, but the difference isn't all that shocking. More impressive is the home vs. road splits, as Pedroia has used and abused Fenway to the tune of an 838 OPS, while in essentially the same number of plate appearances he has a much less impressive 763 OPS in all other parls. He travels to Camden Yards today to face Wei-Yin Chen and the Orioles, pulling down some advantage for the platoon split but losing on the transition out of Boston. Camden Yards is a friendly place to hit in its own rite but Pedroia has found Oriole Park to be just like all the rest, with a career line of .297/.355/389 slash in 327 plate appearances.
Evan Gattis, 1B ($3700) vs. LHP: .268/.295/.502 in 254 PA vs. RHP: .241/.293/.475 in 753 PA
The Astros have wisely kept Gattis out of the catcher's gear this season, and his next defensive inning behind the dish will be his first with the new ballclub. Draft Kings has made the necessary adjustment such that Gattis no longer qualifies at catcher, but he doesn't qualify in the outfield either, despite the fact that 49 of his 53 career games with a glove have come in the outfield and that it's the one defensive position he has played this year. Almost all of his time with Houston has been spent in the DH role, sacrificing his glove to the gods of AL baseball. Gattis is valued for his pop and he is mostly non-discriminatory, though he gains a small edge with the platoon advantage to pose an extra threat to tonight's starter for the White Sox, lefty Jose Quintana.
The Arms Trevor Bauer, CLE vs. SEA ($8700) Bauer has been on an uncharacteristically stable run – in his last five turns, the right-hander has earned point totals of 20.2-26.4-24.3-28.3-30.3 on Draft Kings, scores that are worth anywhere from $10000 and $15000 of salary value. The strikeout assassin has done so quietly, mixing 10-K starts with half-stack strikeout totals, with both methods being equally effective at keeping runs off the scoreboard. The $8700 price tag is the highest that I've seen attached to Bauer this season, a reflection of his recent run of dominance as well as his potential for a high-strikeout game. Nelson Cruz has been experiencing back soreness, and his absence would further deflate a winded Mariners offense.
Shane Greene, DET vs. CHC ($4700) Greene's absurdly-low price (he's cheaper than eight different batters in the night slate) is the result of a horrific stretch in which the right-hander has coughed up 17 runs over his last three games, covering 11.7 innings of work. The overall line is tainted by the fiasco of two starts ago, in which Green watched the Angels strike for five homers and seven runs total without his escaping the second inning. He had only given up three bombs in his first 59.0 innings of 2015, as if a season's worth of regression was taking place in a single start. He has bookended the disaster with starts of four earned runs apiece, including six Athletics crossing the plate in his last turn. The K rate is a disaster at 15.0 percent this season, and though last season's rate of 23.5 percent was due for correction, he flew right past the reasonable midpoint. The Cubs present the opportunity for some extra K's, but I would rather stock my DFS lineup with Chicagoans than trust Greene to keep them quiet.
Recency Bias Baltimore Orioles Offense Check out these monthly splits:
April: 20 games, .286/.345/.482, 5.6 runs/game May: 29 games, .231/.287/.358, 3.3 runs/game June: 8 games, .233/.275/.353, 3.0 runs/game
I spent the first two months of the season avoiding the Orioles offense. The reasoning was sound enough: they ranked in MLB's upper quartile in runs last season, the lineup was still stacked despite losing Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis via free agency, and they were explosive for the first month of the season.
Home: .267/.320/.439, 4.68 runs/game for 28 games Away: .236/.294/.367, 3.45 runs/game for 29 games
Fast forward six weeks, and the Baltimore offense has lost its way. There's opportunity for optimism, as Adam Jones is finally climbing out of a deep slump, Matt Wieters finally returned to the lineup following a two-month absence as he recovered from Tommy John surgery, and Manny Machado continues to flash his potential in spurts. Unfortunately, the downside has outweighed the upside - Steve Pearce has been so bad that Oriole fans have their fingers crossed to see Delmon Young penciled into the lineup, Chris Davis is starting to drift toward the losing half of the wishbone as he splits the extreme performances of the past two seasons, and J.J. Hardy is hitting like he's still on the disabled list. It's a lineup to be respected when the gears are clicking, but my usual avoidance pattern with the Orioles has been temporarily revoked.
The O's play against Boston and Rick Porcello for a home game tonight, a nice combination that should favor the Baltimore lineup as they attempt to make a statement in the crowded AL East.
Weather
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Resources used for this article: Baseball Prospectus Stats and Player Cards Draft Kings player prices
Doug Thorburn is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @doug_thorburn
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Those splits on Pedroia can't be correct. I assume you put the # of PAs on the wrong side, or the splits are backwards as well. He hasn't had 70% of PA vs. lefties, right?