June 9, 2015

Fantasy Rounders

Back on Track

by Doug Thorburn

There was drama surrounding the Houston-Chicago contest yesterday, but those who stuck through the weather and by the side of Chris Sale were rewarded with 14 strikeouts, one earned run allowed, and 44.4 points on Draft Kings. The day served as yet another example that Mother Nature can make the difference between profit and loss in the DFS game, and in addition to the links provided in our trek through Fantasy Rounders, I also recommend that daily gamers follow Kevin Roth on Twitter for a deeper look at the weather patterns in each major-league city.

The Bats

Steve Pearce, 1B/OF ($3700)

vs. LHP: .276/.357/.504 in 510 PA

vs. RHP: .234/.311/.377 in 851 PA

The general feeling surrounding Pearce's stock this season was that he would give back some of the massive gains that he made last season, but that he would settle in as a productive platoon bat. Instead, his 2015 season has been a disaster. The overall line this season of .197/.270/.346 would only make Mario Mendoza proud, and the career-long lefty masher has even struggled to hit southpaws this season, with a line of .222/.275/.389 in 40 plate appearances. Pearce is facing Boston's young left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez today, in a prime opportunity to restoke his old skill set.

Join Doug in playing Baseball Prospectus Beat the Expert League on Draft Kings - click here for tournament lobby. Details ($3 Entry): Baseball Prospectus Private Daily Fantasy League Starts tonight Salary Cap Style Drafting. $50,000 to select 10: 8 fielders and 2 pitchers Roster Format: 2 pitchers, 1 C, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 SS and 3 OF

Jonathan Lucroy, C/1B ($3300)

vs. LHP: .313/.361/.516 in 558 PA

vs. RHP: .274/.334/.407 in 1870 PA

Lucroy started the year in a horrendous slump, going 6-for-45 at the plate before an injury sent him mercilessly to the disabled list. He came back on June 1 and hit the reset button on his season, hitting from the jump en route to an 11-for-31 performance over the first eight days of the month. His platoon split is striking, particularly in the power department, where his .203 ISO against southpaws dwarfs the .133 mark that he has managed versus right-handers in his career. Throw in the higher hit rate, and Lucroy slugs 109 points better when a lefty (such as tonight's opposing starter Francisco Liriano) takes the mound. Lucroy is only 4-for-20 in his career against Liriano, so it won't be an easy trek back to prominence.

The Arms

Francisco Liriano, PIT vs. MIL ($9700)

Liriano can be extremely frustrating due to the contrast between his elevated peaks and deep-reaching valleys. Luckily for his recent DFS investors, the peaks have been much more plentiful on Liriano's game log this season. The K rate is a career-high 30.0 percent this season while the walk rate (9.3 percent) is his lowest marks of the past five years. He's not without his blow-ups, which include a seven-run disaster against the Twins on May 19th, but in his three starts since Liriano has a 0.94 ERA and 29 strikeouts against just four walks in 19.0 innings. Facing off against Taylor Jungmann today, Liriano would seem to face an imposing task with southpaw-killers like Ryan Braun and the aforementioned Lucroy in tow, but the Brew Crew has been swinging empty lumber against left-handers so far in 2015, with a line of .199/.259/.362 and a 23-percent K rate in 460 plate appearances.

Carlos Rodon, CHW vs. HOU ($5700)

Rodon is the perfect GPP adventure. He's extremely low priced, he's an adventure to watch every inning, and he has the upside for double-digit strikeouts against a Houston offense that leads the American League in batter strike-three's. Given his inconsistencies, however, there's also the risk of a six-walk misadventure for Rodon, a factor which helps to explain significant discount for his services. Rodon has huge upside and a bright future, and though his DFS value has caveats, there is a spot to maximize his skills in a low investment, low win probability, high-reward scenario.

Recency Bias

Joey Gallo, 3B ($3200)

Gallo greeted the big leagues with a bang, with a home run in each of his first two ballgames to go with a couple of additional hits (including a double), a walk, four runs and five RBI in his first two days as a MLB player. His swing has massive torque, and his ability to knock the ball into the air could play huge dividends in the Texas heat this summer. The question is whether Gallo will be there to enjoy it, as third base incumbent Adrian Beltre will be back soon from his two-week stint on the disabled list and Gallo could be left without a position to play. Gallo is facing Sonny Gray today, whose MLB-leading ERA of 1.65 has clearly influenced the price on the Ranger rookie who is sure to be a popular draw on DFS rosters at Draft Kings today.

Weather

• The skies are relatively clear across the nation today, which is a welcome respite after yesterday's wet fiasco

• There is some concern in Atlanta (SD-ATL) – check here for updates

***

Resources used for this article:

Baseball Prospectus Stats and Player Cards

Draft Kings player prices

Brooks Baseball

Baseball-Reference

www.Weather.com

Doug Thorburn is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @doug_thorburn
Click here to see Doug's other articles. You can contact Doug by clicking here