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May 28, 2015
Eyewitness Accounts
May 28, 2015
by Chris Mellen
Ben Lively
 |
Born: 03/05/1992 (Age: 23) |
Bats: Right |
Throws: Right |
Height: 6' 4" |
Weight: 190 |
Three-quarters arm slot; balanced delivery; low-energy expending; consistent timing from start to finish; lands in good position; some drop and drive; could use more lower-body explosion; hides all offerings from hitters—ball shows very late in release; 1.26-1.31 from stretch; will shorten up with runners on base. |
Chris Mellen |
05/24/2015 |
Reading Fightin Phils (AA, Phillies) |
05/24/2015 |
50/Moderate |
40; Middle Reliever |
2015 |
No |
Fastball |
50 |
55 |
89-91 |
92 |
Demonstrates some arm-side movement, especially when in lower tier of the zone; deceptive—ball comes out of hand at last instance; will get late swings; sneaky fast; capable of missing a bat when being strategic; can throw to all four quadrants; looks to work offering on outer third to both righties and lefties; better spotting to glove side; shies away from coming inside; not going to overpower multiple times through a lineup; will need to stay out of upper tier against advance hitters to be successful; solid-average command; likely to play up in shorter bursts due to deception; more finesse than power pitch. |
Slider |
45 |
50 |
83-86 |
|
Flashes late horizontal break when finishing with wrist above the ball; tended to wrap with offering and rush through throwing it; lacked glove-side action; needs tightening to evolve into legit weapon; spun more often than not in this viewing; does show feel and knowledge of what pitcher is trying to accomplish; can stand to throw for a strike more often glove side; needs more of an identity to miss bats at the highest level. |
Curveball |
40 |
45 |
74-75 |
|
Tended to roll in outing, but could emerge as viable offering down the line; 12/6 shape, with turnover late in break when staying on top of the ball; used as chase pitch later in the count; ability (or willingness) to throw for a strike earlier in sequences is necessary to put pitch in batters' minds more frequently; may just end up as occasional change of pace. |
Changeup |
40 |
40 |
81-84 |
|
Mild arm-side fading action; mostly showed as fastball that pitcher is taking something off of; while arm speed was there, feel for grip appeared inconsistent; floated in strike zone when delivered it; needs more confidence and trust in pitch to work into sequences effectively. |
Athletic arm, with body and delivery to last deeper into outings over the course of a long season; however, stuff presently on the bland side as a whole for a long-term starter; deceptive release and command profile leads me to believe fastball can play up in shorter bursts; can be more effective when seeing chunk of lineup once as opposed to multiple times through where hitters showed adjustments to release; one of the breaking balls needs a step forward to start advanced bats more often; feel is that slider has best chance to pair with fastball; advancement of multiple pieces of arsenal can lead to an innings eater at the back of a rotation, but gut feel says this arm is more of a bridge-reliever role that hands off to the later-inning relievers.
|
Luis Diaz
 |
Born: 04/09/1992 (Age: 23) |
Bats: Right |
Throws: Right |
Height: 6' 3" |
Weight: 210 |
Easy thrower; creates velocity without max effort; clean delivery; high three-quarters arm slot; big body leads to stretches of inconsistent balance; front foot will drift; can repeat; frame enables pitcher to create plane. |
Chris Mellen |
05/24/2015 |
Portland Sea Dogs (AA, Red Sox) |
05/24/2015 |
40/Moderate |
35 - Up-and-Down Arm |
2016 |
No |
Fastball |
60 |
65 |
92-93 |
95 |
Lively offering, especially when thrown from middle of the thighs and below; shows downward action and occasional late finish; will work to throw to all four quadrants; not overly deceptive; gets hit harder than it should; better spotting glove side than arm side; ability to selectively elevate; overthrowing leads to meaty deliveries catching a lot of white; fringe-average present command, with some growth potential; believe offering can tick up out of bullpen. |
Curveball |
45 |
55 |
72-75 |
|
Big bender; overhand break; flashes good depth; gets soft in lower-velocity band; solid separation between fastball; will throw for a strike; willing (and shows confidence) to use at any point of a sequence; liked way pitcher utilized offering; can stand to vary shape and throw for a chase; offering gets boost with progress/learning how to shorten up with more power. |
Changeup |
30 |
30 |
78-80 |
|
Distant third in arsenal; deliberate with delivery; minimal action; not a lot of confidence when throwing; don't see much future impact with the pitch; best thrown every once and a while as a "show me." |
Big-bodied, two-pitch arm; visibly heavier than listed; extra weight shows in loss of fastball gusto after about 60 pitches; likely path is in the bullpen; fastball and curveball have chance to play well together in short bursts; role ticks up with emergence of more of a power breaking ball or curveball taking steps to create chases; see an organization depth arm, with chance to fill a last spot or two in bullpen as needed.
|
Henry Owens
 |
Born: 07/21/1992 (Age: 22) |
Bats: Left |
Throws: Left |
Height: 6' 6" |
Weight: 220 |
Ultra-easy delivery; very low-energy expending; high three-quarters arm slot; has improved keeping consistent with release; positioned on the first base side of the rubber; creates angle with body; works to finish with back for leverage; 1.27-1.47 out of stretch. |
Chris Mellen |
05/24/2015 |
Pawtucket Red Sox (AAA, Red Sox) |
05/15/2015 |
55/Low |
50; No. 4 starter |
2015 |
No |
Fastball |
50 |
50 |
88-90 |
92 |
Kept down in the zone more often than not; appeared cognizant and mindful of working in lower tier consistently; showed tail when thrown from middle of the plate to arm side; pitch will run away from right-handed bats; tends to back up into plate when thrown on inner third to righties; will throw to both sides of the plate; average present command; gets loose with offering when men are on base; majority of heaters in outing executed in manner necessary to be successful with pitch; can be hit hard; will walk a finer line at highest level. |
Changeup |
65 |
65 |
78-81 |
|
Outstanding arm speed; possesses both deception and strong action; heavy arm-side fade; will occasionally bottom out to glove side; uses at any point in the count; can throw for a strike and out of the zone; creates awkward swings; gets away with poor location at level; some tightening needed to avoid dangerous spots, but pitch will miss good bats in the bigs; weapon to aid in limiting contact and getting out of jams. |
Curveball |
45 |
50 |
71-75 |
|
Tail of two offerings in outing—early-innings version crisp and sharp, but middle-innings version got very loose; shows best shape in upper-velocity band; deep bend and teeth in mid-70s; loopy and soft in low 70s; capable of throwing for a strike; works to change shape depending on the situation; pitch will outkick future grade with more power created, but unsure pitcher can consistently do so. |
Tall and lanky left-hander, with mechanics and arsenal to project as a long-term starter; very much a rhythm worker; stuff across the board tends to dip as delivery moves past optimal pace (slow start to finish); fastball is at best when utilizing size to advantage; will always need to resist urge to challenge with offering; good poise for age; secondary stuff as a whole will compete against better-than-average big-league hitters; some concerns that elite competition will feast on fastball; won't be a lead piece of a rotation, but will give team innings and consistency in what to expect down in the rotation.
|
Rainy Lara
 |
Born: 03/14/1991 (Age: 24) |
Bats: Right |
Throws: Right |
Height: 6' 4" |
Weight: 180 |
Three-quarters arm slot; long arm action; messy delivery at times—arm gets late into slot; inconsistent release; creates angle on right-handed hitters; throws a lot of arms and legs at hitters; hides ball behind back well. |
Chris Mellen |
05/24/2015 |
Binghamton Mets (AA, Mets) |
04/23/2015 |
30/Moderate |
20; Triple-A Arm |
2016 |
No |
Fastball |
40 |
45 |
87-88 |
91 |
Flashed occasional cut, but typically flat; offering lacked life, but night also on the frigid side; generated some late swings due to deception; will move around the plate; can spot in the lower tier of the strike zone; able to throw for strikes; better suited for short bursts; velocity fell off after three innings; contact is loud when squared up. |
Slider |
45 |
45 |
77-80 |
|
Varies the shape, but lacks consistent definition; able to drop in for a strike and bury out of the zone for a chase; gets loopy and loose in lower-velocity band; confident using pitch at any point in the count; arm angle will make it uncomfortable at times on right-handed hitters; go-to pitch when in trouble; best piece of arsenal. |
Changeup |
30 |
30 |
80-84 |
|
Bottom dropping action; telegraphs when delivering; on the firm side despite lower velocity; lacks separation between fastball and will blend at time; isn't a viable piece to sequence against opposing hitters. |
Lanky and long pitcher who gets away with lack of stuff as a starter due to deception; will eventually run out against good competition; fastball/slider combination gives arm a chance to transition to the bullpen; can be tough in one- or two-batter bursts versus right-handed batters; conditions of evening lead me to believe fastball usually sits a tick above what showed; arm likely to ceiling in Triple-A, with chance for emergency or injury fill call in right situation.
|
Nefi Ogando
 |
Born: 06/03/1989 (Age: 25) |
Bats: Right |
Throws: Right |
Height: 6' 2" |
Weight: 220 |
Three-quarters arm slot; high effort in delivery; puts everything into throws; inconsistent release; effort makes it tough to repeat; shows flashes of staying on top; ball will come out easy in those instances; strong lower half—uses all of body; as clean as he is going to be; will jerk head off target; lands square to plate. |
Chris Mellen |
05/24/2015 |
Reading Fightin Phils (AA, Phillies) |
05/24/2015 |
50/High |
40; 6th/7th-inning reliever |
2015 |
No |
Fastball |
65 |
65 |
94-95 |
97 |
Explosive offering when out in front of the ball; can power past hitters upstairs; freezes batters when spotted in strike zone; late finish when staying above pitch; capable of dominating a sequence with heater; below-average command; delivery makes it tough to see much more growth in area; velocity suffers when arm is late into slot; runs into stretches of overthrowing (pitch stays up and away); would grade future higher if believed command could take another step forward and delivery will loosen up more to help consistency of velocity. |
Slider |
55 |
55 |
87-88 |
|
Acts more as vertical, eye-changing piece as opposed to late breaker with dart; tendency to freeze batters rather than elicit chases; comfortable using at any point in sequences; capable of throwing for a strike; good feel for pitch; is inconsistent creating snap due to less than ideal wrist looseness; could be weapon if develops late break, but historical looks at player have all been consistent with pitch. |
Changeup |
40 |
40 |
87-90 |
|
Firm offering; action indicative of two-seamer; lacks execution, but will jump out of nowhere when thrown right; changes pace on hitter; something pitcher keeps in back pocket. |
Power-arm reliever who shows tangible MLB stuff, but equally lacks in consistent execution; delivery, and subsequent effect on command, lead me to believe inconsistency will always be a part of the game; outing evolved into high-wire act due to batter-to-batter nature of execution; future potential and role reflect quality of raw stuff, but assessment of risk factor indicates volatility of assigned grades; this is an arm who can burst into contributing bullpen role for a season and then just as quickly find himself back in the minors the next due to uneven performance.
|
Chris Mellen is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
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Eyewitness Accounts: J... (06/04)
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The Call-Up: Eduardo R... (05/28)
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Rainy Lara is at least a 60 name.
Wouldn't a pitcher with the last name "Lively" also rate as a 60 name?