May 18, 2015

The Call-Up

Lance McCullers

by Christopher Crawford and J.P. Breen

Printer-friendly

The situation: The Astros sit in first place but have received dreadful numbers from their fifth starters. They will look to maintain the former while fixing the latter with the call-up of McCullers to make his big-league debut Monday.

Background: The son of former big-leaguer Lance “Baby Goose” McCullers, McCullers Jr. was one of the best known prospects heading into the 2012 draft. His stock fluctuated over the “draft season” as inconsistent results saw him go from a lock to go in the top 10, to a good bet to go to the University of Florida, to a first-round talent with signing bonus concerns, all in a short period of time. The Astros selected McCullers and were able to give the right-hander double the allocated slot bonus by using the money they saved picking Carlos Correa. In his time in the system, McCullers has slowly but surely become one of their best pitching prospects, ranking seventh in the BP Astros’ top 10 this February. He appears to have taken a major step forward this spring, posting a 0.62 ERA at Double-A Corpus Christi with 43 strikeouts in 29 innings.

Scouting report: Two of McCullers’ pitches flash plus-plus, led by a fastball that sits 91-93 mph but will get up to 97 with some life—though at times that movement can make the pitch difficult to command (more on that later). His best pitch is his curveball, a pitch on which he will change the velocity and break. It always has hard spin and enough break to make it a swing-and-miss pitch against hitters on either side of the plate. Somewhat surprisingly, he commands the pitch better than his heater, and he’ll use it to get ahead of hitters in the count as well as bury it out of the strike zone when ahead.

Those two pitches make McCullers a big leaguer, but there are some issues that could keep him from starting long-term. He will show a change, but he lacks feel for the offering, and since there isn’t a huge velocity difference nor elite movement it’s a 40 pitch. The biggest concerns, though, are the command and the delivery. Though he repeats his mechanics well, there’s effort there, and he also throws across the body from a three-quarters arm slot. Scouts tell me the delivery has toned down and he’s throwing strikes as well as he ever has, but the sample size is still too small to say that his command will ever be anything but fringe-average, and there’s the obvious injury worries of a cross-body thrower.

Immediate big-league future: There’s no question that McCullers has electric stuff, and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he missed plenty of bats in his time with the Astros. It also wouldn’t surprise me if the below-average command and lack of third pitch led to struggles, because history tells us to expect that. If the improved command is here to stay he’s a mid-rotation starter who can pile up the strikeouts, with high-leverage reliever as a floor. —Christopher Crawford

Fantasy impact: When a pitcher with a high-90s fastball and a 37.1 percent strikeout rate in Double-A gets called to The Show, fantasy owners naturally have their interests piqued. McCullers has dominated the competition in 2015, posting a 0.62 ERA and a 9.5 percent walk rate, his best mark since the 2012 season. Those are titillating stats for owners who have struggled thus far in pitching categories or who are looking to bolster a weak dynasty rotation.

Still, it’s important to keep McCullers’ overall profile and strong start in its proper context. Most scouts have pegged him as a likely bullpen arm down the road, and he’s coming off a season in which he walked 5.2 batters per nine innings and had a 5.47 ERA over 97 frames. The right-hander is far from a polished arm and hasn’t thrown a single inning above Double-A to this point.

All in all, fantasy owners should expect a power arm with command problems who will likely struggle to pitch deep into games and cause huge problems in the WHIP category. If strikeouts are key at this point, McCullers may be a sneaky addition. He could flirt with a strikeout per inning as a power two-pitch guy, a la Tyson Ross; however, it’s unlikely he’s going to be even average in any other category in 2015. He could be on the same sort of developmental track, for example, as Carlos Martinez of the Cardinals. In fact, the Astros may just be showcasing him for a mid-season trade, after which he could return to the minors or go to a club that needs bullpen help.

Huge arms are nice, but there’s more to life than a high-90s fastball and a big strikeout rate. Lance McCullers is a 21-year-old who has short track record of consistent success. He’ll flash impressive stuff, but fantasy owners shouldn’t expect him to provide much other than a lofty strikeout rate and rough rate stats in his big-league debut. In AL-only leagues, he’s worth a bid of $4-$5 for the innings and strikeouts alone, but mixed-league owners should likely sit on the sidelines for this one. —J.P. Breen

• 90th percentile: 3.68 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
• 50th percentile: 5.11 ERA, 1.59 WHIP
• 10th percentile: 6.71 ERA, 1.99 WHIP

Christopher Crawford is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @CVCrawfordBP
Click here to see Christopher's other articles. You can contact Christopher by clicking here
J.P. Breen is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @jp_breen
Click here to see J.P.'s other articles. You can contact J.P. by clicking here