<< Previous Article
Fantasy Rounders: Hamm... (05/12)

<< Previous Column
Eyewitness Accounts: M... (05/07)

Next Column >>
Eyewitness Accounts: M... (05/14)

Next Article >>
The BP Wayback Machine... (05/13)

May 12, 2015

Eyewitness Accounts

May 12, 2015

by Tucker Blair

Printer-friendly

Contact Author

Nik Nowottnick
Jefry Rodriguez
Javier Guerra
Osvaldo Abreu
Rafael Devers

Nik Nowottnick


	Born: 12/05/1991 (Age: 23)
	Bats: Right	Throws: Right
	Height: 6' 4"	Weight: 195

Build: Tall and lanky; sturdy shoulders and hips with a good core; frame is maxed.

Mechanics: High three-quarters arm slot; deep arm action and a long extension; above-average arm speed; exerted delivery; drags arm and opens up; big angle helps play up arsenal; clean landing from a hard drive.

Evaluator	Tucker Blair
Report Date	04/27/2015
Affiliate	Frederick Keys (High-A, Orioles)
Dates Seen	4/25/15
OFP/Risk	40/Low
Realistic	40; Middle Relief
MLB ETA	2017
Video	No

Pitch Type	Present Grade	Future Grade	Sitting Velocity	Peak Velocity	Report
FB	50	50	88-90	91	Average command; hard arm-side run with mild boring action; busts in on hands routinely; big angle and plane helps to play up the effectiveness of the offering.
SL	45	50	81-82	82	Fringe command; replicates arm speed; moderate tilt; worked backdoor consistently; deception from arm slot and angle helps to play up offering; inconsistent release points and spin; slight refinement in command and release points can push the pitch to a future average offering.

Nowottnick signed out of Towson in 2013, mostly as a depth option for the lower minors. Since then, he has improved his command slightly and boosted his potential as a relief profile. The fastball/slider combo works because of the large angle and plane he is able to gain from his tall frame and release point. While he lacks a sufficient out pitch, he misses enough barrels to serve as the last man in a bullpen or a depth option in the upper minors.

Round Drafted: UDFA, signed in 2013
Why: Signed for minimal money; depth in lower minors; fastball/slider combo could play up in a 'pen role.

Jefry Rodriguez


	Born: 07/26/1993 (Age: 21)
	Bats: Right	Throws: Right
	Height: 6' 5"	Weight: 185

Build: Large frame; athletic and slender build with room for projection; body is built for durability if he can keep the arm healthy.

Mechanics: Three-quarters arm slot; plus arm speed; large stab with a deep arm action; mild drive; slightly stiff on landing; foot is slightly inverted on landing; crossfire; will drag arm occasionally; rushed delivery and became out of tempo often during the outing; mechanics became rushed and out of sync; delivery times 1.40 - 1.47

Evaluator	Tucker Blair
Report Date	05/04/2015
Affiliate	Hagerstown Suns (Low-A, Nationals)
Dates Seen	5/2/15
OFP/Risk	55/High
Realistic	50; Set-up Arm
MLB ETA	2018
Video	No

Pitch Type	Present Grade	Future Grade	Sitting Velocity	Peak Velocity	Report
FB	55	65	91-94	95	Below-average command; T95 4x; displays arm-side run at 91-92 mph; generates downhill plane and ball is hard to barrel when located in the lower quadrants; consistently missed up in the zone and left fastball over the plate; increased stamina and consistent mechanics will help to play up offering.
CB	50	60	78-81	81	Below-average command; replicates arm speed; 11-5 break; inconsistent offering currently; flashes depth with tight spin; will tally swinging strikes at its peak; caught in between sometimes; will sweep more than break with depth; release points were inconsistent and can be tightened for improvement with spin and command.
CH	20	40	84	84	Poor command; threw three times; replicates arm speed; mild feel but was firm on release; currently ineffective, but replication of arm speed is evident along with 8-10 velo separation from fastball.

Signed as an international free agent in 2012. This was the first start for Rodriguez on the season, and the results were mixed. The stuff flashed plus, but he failed to consistently string it together during the outing. The overall command of his arsenal was below-average, but Rodriguez missed a good portion of the past season and is clearly still working back to form. The stamina and crispness of his arsenal is still not quite there.

The risk remains high with Rodriguez, as he is still a lower-minors pitcher with much refinement needed with his secondary arsenal. The stuff will play out of the bullpen as a late-inning reliever, but there is still a chance he can develop as a starter moving forward. Rodriguez is a volatile arm.

Javier Guerra


	Born: 09/25/1995 (Age: 19)
	Bats: Left	Throws: Right
	Height: 5' 11"	Weight: 155
	Primary Position: SS
	Secondary Position:

Wiry frame; skinny limbs; room for muscle and weight; extremely athletic and nimble.

Evaluator	Tucker Blair
Report Date	05/04/2015
Dates Seen	5/2/15 - 5/3/15
Affiliate	Greenville Drive (Low-A, Red Sox)

MLB ETA	Risk Factor	OFP	Realistic Role	Video
2019	High	55	50; Major-League Regular	Yes

Nothing out of ordinary to note.

Tool	Future Grade	Report
Hit	40	Above-average bat speed; slight leverage in swing; swing is short and compact; slight pre-swing noise can occasionally result in his hands drifting during the swing; mild barrel control; slight toe tap with mild load; hips can leak and he will occasionally step in the bucket on average or higher secondary offerings; mild ability to recognize spin; will have issues against stronger stuff; aggressive hitter that attacks fastballs early in the count.
Power	30	Average raw power; above-average bat speed with slight leverage will help play power to an extent; overall swing and profile is not conducive for power on a consistent basis; might run into five home runs a year; lacks the foot speed to turn singles into doubles.
Baserunning/Speed	45	Slightly below-average speed; 4.30 home to first; lacks a second gear; displays agility; speed is not a detriment in the field; could play down some with slight gain in muscle/weight.
Glove	60	Fluid motions; smooth footwork; plus range at shortstop; soft hands and lightning-quick transfers; positions himself well in the field; instinctive; natural shortstop that presently plays at a plus level.
Arm	70	Plus arm speed; ball has extreme carry; easily makes all throws short and deep on a line; arm would play anywhere on the field.

Guerra signed as an international free agent in 2012 for $250,000. Guerra has a plus glove and a double-plus arm, making him a safe option to stick at shortstop and provide premium value up the middle. There is enough juice in the bat to provide value offensively, and his progression at the plate will determine whether his overall future value is that of an average regular or higher. The risk is high due to his limited time in full-season ball, but the glove will carry him throughout the minors.

Osvaldo Abreu


	Born: 06/13/1994 (Age: 20)
	Bats: Right	Throws: Right
	Height: 6' 0"	Weight: 170
	Primary Position: SS
	Secondary Position: 2B

Small frame; toned body with muscular definition; maxed frame.

Evaluator	Tucker Blair
Report Date	05/04/2015
Dates Seen	4/28/15 - 4/29/15, 5/2/15 - 5/3/15
Affiliate	Hagerstown Suns (Low-A, Nationals)

MLB ETA	Risk Factor	OFP	Realistic Role	Video
2019	High	40	30; Org Player	No

Interesting player; cheerful and easy-going; sometimes looks lazy in the field.

Tool	Future Grade	Report
Hit	40	Above-average bat speed; noisy hands; minor hitch; wide-base stance with a leg kick; swing can get out of sync due to violence and elongation; aggressive swing; hips leak; struggles to recognize spin; will lock up on deep spin; needs to relax at the plate; profile is not conducive for the types of aggressive swing he takes.
Power	30	Average raw power; slight leverage and above-average bat speed help it play mildly; the aggression and lack of barrel control hinder the average raw power from realizing its in-game potential.
Baserunning/Speed	45	4.45 home to first; slow out of the box; more agility than speed; plays better in the field; stealing bases right now solely on his reactions.
Glove	50	Extremely inconsistent currently; footwork can become lazy and choppy; range is average and displays good reactions; struggles with backhand picks; needs to position body better on plays; the tools and ability is here for an average glove at shortstop and above average at second base, but most of the issues are from lack of preparation and set-up.
Arm	50	Above-average arm strength; moderate carry and can make sufficient throws from the hole; footwork can be choppy and affect the accuracy; plays down the arm a tick.

Abreu was signed as an international free agent in 2012. Abreu lacks any standout tool, but the overall profile could potentially play in a utility role. He needs to settle down his aggression in all phases of the game, as the swing can become overly noisy and the defense is presently too risk-oriented. The risk is high due to his limited time in full-season ball and the inconsistencies currently at the plate and in the field.

Rafael Devers


	Born: 10/24/1996 (Age: 18)
	Bats: Left	Throws: Right
	Height: 6' 0"	Weight: 195
	Primary Position: 3B
	Secondary Position: 1B

Lacks athleticism; thicker frame; sturdy core with strong wrists and forearms; lower half is large; more growth into frame could push him off third base.

Evaluator	Tucker Blair
Report Date	05/04/2015
Dates Seen	5/2/15 - 5/3/15
Affiliate	Greenville Drive (Low-A, Red Sox)

MLB ETA	Risk Factor	OFP	Realistic Role	Video
2018	High	60	50; Major-League Regular	Yes

Plays with a chip on his shoulder; knows he is talented and acts like it; wears emotions on sleeve.

Tool	Future Grade	Report
Hit	60	Plus bat speed; slight pre-swing noise in hands; mild bat wrap; strong wrists and forearms help play up the fluidity of the swing through the zone; displays solid barrel control; able to manipulate barrel in zone and spray ball to all parts of the field; top and bottom half remain in sync; hips have natural and easy torque; moderate load; ability to recognize spin; can become off-balanced on front foot against changeups that have ~8-10 mph separation from fastball; barrel control and bat speed help limit the margin for error; mature presence at the plate with an advanced feel for hitting.
Power	60	Double-plus raw power; slight leverage in swing; plus bat speed and barrel control help play gap power; consistently generates backspin; power likely plays at plus in-game due to a swing currently more conducive for contact than power.
Baserunning/Speed	30	Well-below average speed; increased growth into frame will likely hinder speed.
Glove	40	Displays average range presently; footwork is inconsistent and can get choppy; works better around the base than in the open field; lacks the athleticism to make the difficult plays; body and athleticism is not conducive for a long-term career at third base; likely a first baseman in the future.
Arm	55	Above-average arm strength; presently plays; enough carry to work efficiently at third; accuracy issues currently, but slight refinement in footwork will bring improvement.

Signed as an international free agent in 2013 for $1,500,000. Devers displays an advanced feel and approach at the plate for his age, and put together a monster showing this weekend. This was an impressive showing for the Dominican talent, as he went 5-for-6 with two home runs on Saturday. The barrel control and bat speed help to limit most of his minor issues with recognizing off-speed, and he has the cognizance to make adjustments in game and even during a single at-bat. The power is natural and easy, with minimal effort in the swing.

There is risk involved with Devers due to the body and defensive potential. Devers presently owns a larger frame and increased growth could further limit his development and chance to stick at third, which would push him to first base. The bat should still play at first.

Tucker Blair is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @TuckerBlairON
Click here to see Tucker's other articles. You can contact Tucker by clicking here

Related Content: Prospects, Scouting, Minor Leagues

1 comment has been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Fantasy Rounders: Hamm... (05/12)

<< Previous Column
Eyewitness Accounts: M... (05/07)

Next Column >>
Eyewitness Accounts: M... (05/14)

Next Article >>
The BP Wayback Machine... (05/13)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS Playoff Prospectus: Come Undone BP En Espanol: Previa de la NLCS: Cubs vs. D... Playoff Prospectus: How Did This Team Get Ma... Playoff Prospectus: Too Slow, Too Late Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and ALCS Gam... Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and NLCS Gam... Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Preview: Cubs vs. D...	MORE FROM MAY 12, 2015 Prospect Profile: Byron Buxton: 'So far, so ... Rubbing Mud: The Case Against Boston's Offen... Minor League Update: Games of Monday, May 11... What You Need to Know: Bombered! Fantasy Freestyle: Finesse the Pitching Expert FAAB Review: Week Six Closer Report: Seventh Edition, 2015
MORE BY TUCKER BLAIR 2015-06-01 - Raw Projection: EP. 05 - Fireworks In The Re... 2015-05-26 - Minor League Update: Games of May 22-25, 201... 2015-05-18 - Raw Projection: Ep. 03 - Six Flags And Raffl... 2015-05-12 - Eyewitness Accounts: May 12, 2015 2015-05-08 - Staff Review 2015-05-05 - Raw Projection: Ep. 01 - Short Anthems, Shor... 2015-04-28 - Prospect Debate: Greg Bird: Patient or Passi... More...	MORE EYEWITNESS ACCOUNTS 2015-05-28 - Eyewitness Accounts: May 28, 2015 2015-05-21 - Eyewitness Accounts: May 21, 2015 2015-05-14 - Eyewitness Accounts: May 14, 2015 2015-05-12 - Eyewitness Accounts: May 12, 2015 2015-05-07 - Eyewitness Accounts: May 7, 2015 2015-04-30 - Eyewitness Accounts: April 30, 2015 2015-04-24 - Eyewitness Accounts: April 24, 2015 More...