April 15, 2015

Dynasty Dynamics

2015 U25 Rankings: National League East

by Ben Carsley and Craig Goldstein

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Remember this from last year? We do. That’s why we decided to do it again.

Here’s the intro from the 2014 round of U25 rankings:

For this exercise, we're each going to rank our top 30 U25 fantasy players by division before we collaborate on a top-150 list once this portion of the project is complete. For each division, we'll give you our individual rankings and then discuss any major discrepancies in our rankings, talk about some sleepers we wanted to rank higher and take cheap shots at each other along the way. It will be like the TINO podcast, but for your eyes, complete with an imaginary Bret Sayre breaking up our fights.

You get the idea, then. Players have to be born after April 1st, 1989 to qualify. We’ll link to last year’s divisional rankings in each piece so you can compare for yourself: 2014 NL East U25 Dynasty Ranking.

Ben's Rankings	Craig's Rankings
1. Giancarlo Stanton, OF, MIA	1. Giancarlo Stanton, OF, MIA
2. Bryce Harper, OF, WAS	2. Bryce Harper, OF, WAS
3. Anthony Rendon, 2B/3B, WAS	3. Christian Yelich, OF, MIA
4. Christian Yelich, OF, MIA	4. Jose Fernandez, SP, MIA
5. Jose Fernandez, SP, MIA	5. Anthony Rendon, 2B/3B, WAS
6. Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL	6. Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL
7. Julio Teheran, SP, ATL	7. Julio Teheran, SP, ATL
8. Shelby Miller, SP, ATL	8. Lucas Giolito, SP, WAS
9. Lucas Giolito, SP, WAS	9. Alex Wood, SP, ATL
10. Noah Syndergaard, SP, WAS	10. Shelby Miller, SP, ATL
11. Marcell Ozuna, OF, MIA	11. Noah Syndergaard, SP, NYM
12. Alex Wood, SP, ATL	12. Marcell Ozuna, OF, MIA
13. Zack Wheeler, SP, NYM	13. Kevin Plawecki, C, NYM
14. J.P. Crawford, SS, PHI	14. Michael Taylor, OF, WAS
15. Maikel Franco, 3B/1B, PHI	15. Jose Peraza, 2B, ATL
16. Jose Peraza, 2B, ATL	16. Zack Wheeler, SP, NYM
17. Michael Taylor, OF, WAS	17. Aaron Nola, SP, PHI
18. Aaron Nola, SP, PHI	18. J.P. Crawford, SS, PHI
19. Matt Wisler, SP, ATL	19. Jarred Cosart, SP, MIA
20. Wilmer Flores, SS, NYM	20. Steven Matz, SP, NYM
21. Henderson Alvarez, SP, MIA	21. Maikel Franco, 1B/3B, PHI
22. Mike Foltynewicz, P, ATL	22. Roman Quinn, SS, PHI
23. Steven Matz, SP, NYM	23. Ken Giles, RP, PHI
24. Andrelton Simmons, SS, ATL	24. Jeurys Familia, RP, NYM
25. Dilson Herrera, 2B, NYM	25. Henderson Alvarez, SP, MIA
26. Ken Giles, RP, PHI	26. Mike Foltynewicz, SP, ATL
27. A.J. Cole, SP, WAS	27. Matt Wisler, SP, ATL
28. Jeurys Familia, RP, NYM	28. Dilson Herrera, 2B, NYM
29. Tyler Kolek, SP, MIA	29. Reynaldo Lopez, SP, WAS
30. Reynaldo Lopez, SP, WAS	30. Brandon Nimmo, OF, NYM

Disagreement One: Wilmer Flores

Craig’s Take: I honestly didn’t think I disliked Flores, but we’re close to three quarters of a season’s worth of at-bats and it’s just bad. He’s not likely to stick at shortstop and while his ceiling is playable at second base, his defense might not really be worth his tepid offense there either. At third, the offensive bar is raised and that could pose an issue. He was never going to be a big contributor in power stats anyway, so most of his value rests on the hit tool/batting average, and that’s enough in doubt for me to prefer everyone listed above to him, though I can see him being equivalent in value to everyone from basically Franco on down.

Ben’s Take: He’s not sticking at shortstop, for sure. Not terribly inspiring offensively yet either. I’m with you on those points. But I do think he can fake second base, and I do think he’ll have the bat to profile decently there form a fantasy POV. Even within the confines of a U25 list, it’s easy to forget that Flores is just 23 because we’ve been talking about him for so long. He’s younger than some of the prospects below him but he has the opportunity now, and while he does have 400 MLB PA of “meh” under his belt, he was quite good in Triple-A last year and I still see an above average hit tool with the potential for 15 homers. That’s not super exciting, so I get knocking the ceiling, but it’s tough for me to get super excited about a lot of the names after him on this list either.

Craig’s Take: If age is the best thing he’s got going for him, well, that’s a problem. His ceiling was always a second-division type and so falling short of that means falling short of retaining value in all but the deepest of leagues. That ceiling is still there, but that ceiling is also present in say, Marwin Gonzalez, so Flores is essentially replacement level in most leagues. Other prospects might be older, but I think there’s a chance they’re more than what Flores can be.

Ben’s Take: Cute job ignoring the positional value and potential for a decent bat. How dare you invoke the name of Marwin Gonzalez. I thought there was a baseline level of mutual respect and professionalism we were going to maintain here but I guess not.

Imaginary Bret: Please talk about any other Met.

Disagreement Two: Jarred Cosart

Ben’s Take: Cosart has a career 3.22 ERA through 41 starts, so I get it. He’s been usable, he keeps the ball on the ground, he pitches in a great park and he plays for an ok team. But man, there’s very little in his peripherals to suggest this is going to get any better. Cosart’s career FIP is up at 3.92 as he’s benefited from some strong BABIP luck to this point, and he puts a lot of people on base. The good news is he hasn’t given up a ton of line drives or homers, but he also doesn’t miss many bats, and for our purposes that’s bad news. There’s the potential here for another sub-3.50 ERA (though I’d take the over) season with 10-14 wins and 125 strikeouts, but that’s so meh, especially when you consider there’s also room for regression. I’d just rather gamble on a youngster with higher upside, even if there’s more of a risk of flameout with a prospect.

Craig’s Take: Yeah. I get it. He’s here now and doing those things, and in an organization that basically helps guys like Cosart thrive. Henderson Alvarez was a high FIP guy until landing in Miami, and I guess I’m giving their coaching staff some credit here. That might not be deserved, I’ll admit. Cosart’s raw stuff is good though, and I think the ability to miss bats is in there somewhere. Whether he can get to it, well, that’s an open question. As much as he keeps the ball on the ground, the drastically improved defense behind him should help, and while I understand the appeal of a youngster with higher upside, you know as well as anyone that those guys often end up as Cosart or worse, so I’m valuing the present contributions, I guess.

Ben’s Take: Serious question—at what point do character concerns matter at all for fantasy? We’re probably not there with Cosart, but I’d be lying if I said I don’t think about it at all. Oftentimes you hear the expression “he’s more than the sum of his parts,” but I think Cosart is less. The stuff might be attractive, sure, but he’s got shoddy control, a bad reputation and a really stupid spelling of his first name. This isn’t a guy I want to bet on.

Craig’s Take: Yeah, I should have mentioned the spelling of the name. It’s rough and I can’t fight you on it. I agree the control makes the stuff play down and has a tangible effect on the strikeout totals. He’s also just in a great situation that pushes his floor up a bit, and if the swing-and-miss element of his game ever comes together, the ceiling is probably higher than either of us is willing to admit.

Imaginary Bret: I think we can all agree that Bret with one “t” is correct, and that “bet on” play on words was terrible.

Craig’s One Player He Wanted to Rank Higher: Erick Fedde, SP, Nationals
If I’m being honest, there are a lot of answers for this space. J.T. Realmuto was probably No. 31. Wilmer Flores probably deserves to be here. I love Amed Rosario, Yoel Mecias, and Jakson Reetz. Tyler Kolek has a huge ceiling. All those considered though, I think it’s easy to forget how good Fedde is, since he hasn’t thrown as a pro. Still, he’s got the kind of arm and ability that could push him towards a high-end middle of the rotation arm, and despite the risk associated with pitchers and especially TJ recoverees, I actually think there’s some safety here. I was trying to find a way to put him and his three potential above-average pitches on the back end of this list, but just couldn’t find a way to do it.

Ben’s One Player He Wanted to Rank Higher: Michael Conforto, OF, Mets
Partially just to aggravate Bret, but mostly because I think Conforto’s become a bit underrated in fantasy circles. Heading to Citi Field is a tough break for his fantasy value, sure, but Conforto was widely considered one of the safest college bats in the 2014 draft and it’s hard to ignore his 25-homer upside. There’s little star potential here, and I get why dynasty leaguers aren’t drooling over him, but if he goes on to have a better fantasy career than any of the last five players on my list I won’t be shocked. He’s better than Dom Smith.

Ben, say something nice about Craig: I can’t hear him snore when he’s in D.C. and I’m in Boston. He honestly does have great taste in cheeses.

Craig, say something nice about Ben: Working with him is a better use of time than watching a Real Housewives of ____ show. That’s as far as I can go.

Ben Carsley is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @bencarsley
Click here to see Ben's other articles. You can contact Ben by clicking here
Craig Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @cdgoldstein
Click here to see Craig's other articles. You can contact Craig by clicking here