CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here to subscribe
<< Previous Article
Every Team's Moneyball... (04/02)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (04/01)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (04/06)
Next Article >>
Spring Training Notebo... (04/02)

April 2, 2015

Transaction Analysis

Extend the Mets

by R.J. Anderson and Craig Goldstein

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

IN THIS ISSUE

American League
National League

SEATTLE MARINERS
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart
Return to Top

Acquired LHP Mike Montgomery from the Rays in exchange for RHP Erasmo Ramirez. [3/31]

With Erasmo Ramirez out of options, the Mariners flipped him for a low-certainty, high-upside prospect who, most importantly, can spend some times in the minor leagues. As he was once the top-ranked prospect in the Royals system (2010) and once a five-star prospect per Kevin Goldstein (2011), to say that Montgomery’s star has faded would be akin to saying Kevin Kiermaier has nice eyes. While he breezed through the lower minors and Double-A, Montgomery stalled out at Triple-A in 2011 and has been stuck in second gear ever since.

While he might not be the front-of-the-rotation starter that so many analysts and prognosticators once foresaw, he can still be of use to an organization. Left-handed pitchers with above-average fastballs make cats envious with the number of lives they get, and Montgomery fits that bill as well. He pairs an above-average changeup with that fastball, and rounds out his pitch mix with a slider and curveball, neither of which approaches average. Seattle, should he reach it, is generous in regards to its room for error and that’s exactly what Montgomery needs, as his command and control both sit well below average. The realistic probability here is LOOGY/swingman, with the upside of a back-end starter and the downside of a cautionary tale. —Craig Goldstein

TAMPA BAY RAYS
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart
Return to Top

Acquired RHP Erasmo Ramirez from the Mariners in exchange for LHP Mike Montgomery. [3/31]

We've entered that part of the spring where players without options or roster spots are on the move. Ramirez, who again failed to secure a job with the Mariners, checks both boxes.

Ramirez is short and thick and resembles Felix Hernandez's son or kid brother. Unfortunately, the Prince lacks the King's best qualities. Ramirez's top offering is a changeup that runs and sinks and plays off his low-90s fastball due to his maintained arm speed. The rest of his arsenal, however, is thin. Neither his slider nor his curveball profile as an average offering, and last season those pitches accounted for more than half the 13 home runs he allowed. The upside here is a back-of-the-rotation starter, while the most-likely scenario sees him land in the bullpen.

Sure enough, expect Ramirez to open the season in the rotation and slide to relief once Alex Cobb and/or Drew Smyly returns from the disabled list. Ramirez could serve as the mop-up man, though there's a chance his fastball-changeup combination plays up in relief and allows him to pitch in middle relief. The Rays will take it given the cost, even knowing there are legitimate reasons behind his banishment from the kingdom. —R.J. Anderson

ATLANTA BRAVES
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart
Return to Top

Claimed LHP Andrew McKirahan off waivers from the Marlins. [4/1]

Selected in the Rule 5 draft from the Cubs, McKirahan has seldom pitched since being drafted in 2011. In fact, last season he more than doubled his career innings total by tossing 65 frames. Nonetheless the Braves, like the Marlins before them, were enticed by McKirahan's strike-throwing ways and quality fastball-changeup combination. John Hart has already released James Russell, and could do the same in the coming days with Josh Outman, so McKirahan has a real chance to crack Atlanta's Opening Day bullpen. —R.J. Anderson

NEW YORK METS
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart
Return to Top

Reportedly agreed to a four-year extension with CF-R Juan Lagares worth $23 million that includes a club option worth $9.5 million. [4/1]

Lagares receives the first extension for a Met since David Wright, back in November 2012, and the first pre-arb extension for a Met since Jonathan Niese, some three years ago.

Because this pact doesn't take effect until next season, Sandy Alderson effectively bought out Lagares' arbitration seasons (he would've been a Super Two qualifier) and gained a year of control. The obvious comparison to make here is with Franklin Gutierrez, who some five years ago signed a four-year extension worth more than $20 million with the Mariners. Gutierrez's contract became a sunk cost due to persistent and wide-ranging health woes, but the hope with him was the same as the hope is with Lagares: that he hits enough to keep his elite center-field defense in the lineup.

On that note, last season offered some good and bad developments. Lagares improved his overall performance, sliced into his strikeout rate, and showed more stolen-base ability than he had during his rookie season. Alas, those gains were met with a decline in walk rate (down to 4.4 percent, fourth worst among center fielders with 400-plus plate appearances) and a reaffirmation that he's not going to hit for much power. Every hitter is dependent to some degree on his batting average, but Lagares is reliant upon singles to an extreme extent; he's simply not going to be productive at the plate if he doesn't have a high average.

With that in mind, going year-to-year with Lagares would've been a sound play; the risk being that he wins another Gold Glove or two, posts a high average a couple more times, or employs an agent who convinces arbitrators that his client is the best defender on the planet. Ultimately, the money involved isn't enough to fret too much about it one way or another; however, it is a surprising and perhaps unnecessary investment for a franchise that, as of late, has been reluctant to spend. —R.J. Anderson

R.J. Anderson is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see R.J.'s other articles. You can contact R.J. by clicking here
Craig Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Craig's other articles. You can contact Craig by clicking here

Related Content:  Seattle Mariners,  New York Mets

1 comment has been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Every Team's Moneyball... (04/02)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (04/01)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (04/06)
Next Article >>
Spring Training Notebo... (04/02)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Playoff Prospectus: Come Undone
BP En Espanol: Previa de la NLCS: Cubs vs. D...
Playoff Prospectus: How Did This Team Get Ma...
Playoff Prospectus: Too Slow, Too Late
Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and ALCS Gam...
Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and NLCS Gam...
Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Preview: Cubs vs. D...

MORE FROM APRIL 2, 2015
Notes from the Field: Last Looks From Arizon...
Every Team's Moneyball: Los Angeles Angels: ...
Every Team's Moneyball: Boston Red Sox: Hit ...
Premium Article Some Projection Left: Matuella has Tommy Joh...
Fantasy Article Fantasy Auction Values: Fourth Edition, 2015
Fantasy Article My Model Portfolio: Balance, Balance, Balanc...
Fantasy Article My Model Portfolio: Find a Way to Get Trout

MORE BY R.J. ANDERSON
2015-04-08 - TINO (There Is No Offseason): Ep. 46: The En...
2015-04-06 - Premium Article League Preview Series
2015-04-03 - Notes from the Field: Texas' Extraordinary O...
2015-04-02 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Extend the Mets
2015-04-01 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Spring Shuffling
2015-03-31 - Every Team's Moneyball: Atlanta Braves: Shor...
2015-03-26 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: It's Olivera Now, Baby...
More...

MORE TRANSACTION ANALYSIS
2015-04-06 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: The Last Blockbuster o...
2015-04-06 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Royals Go On A Ventura
2015-04-06 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Keeping Kluber and Car...
2015-04-02 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Extend the Mets
2015-04-01 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Spring Shuffling
2015-03-26 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: It's Olivera Now, Baby...
2015-03-23 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Good Eaton
More...