March 31, 2015

My Model Portfolio

Stars, Scrubs, and High-End Starters

by Nick Shlain

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The Process:
Mixed leagues are adorable. Look at all of these players—the possibilities are almost endless. Even so, I stuck to my guns and played out a mostly stars-and-scrubs approach for this exercise. It’s my preferred strategy in any mixed league because the replacement-level value on the waiver wire in mixed leagues is significantly higher than in an “-only” format. Even if I completely whiff on estimating a player’s value or lose one due to injury, the waiver wire won’t be a complete wasteland when it’s time to find a replacement.

I’m not especially concerned with having three $1 players on offense because of the point I just made about replacement level being what it is in mixed leagues. Once I saw that Stephen Vogt was only $1, I knew I wanted to grab him and a $1 catcher to save some money at the position with an eye toward making Vogt my catcher once he gains in-season eligibility there. This allowed me to buy five offensive players for at least $21 each.

I started with Miguel Cabrera, who is the cheapest of the top six hitters at $40. Then I added Seager for $23, which is $8 less than Josh Donaldson’s listed price. Then it was time to get to work on the outfield, where after Bryce Harper I focused on cheaper players who I view as more valuable than the listed price in Betts, Martinez, and Austin Jackson. Brandon Moss was added for a power boost and positional flexibility as he’s eligible at both outfield and first base. After realizing how much money I still had left at this point, I filled in the middle infield with Tulowitzki, Kinsler, and Odor.

Overall, this is going to be a very good offense. It should be because of how much money I spent, but I believe I accomplished what I set to. There’s obviously a ton of power here, but this also appears to be a good average team. While my star players don’t steal bases, I have plenty of guys who will chip in with double-digit steals.