March 19, 2015
Fantasy Auction Values
Second Edition, 2015
by Mike Gianella
Below is the second update of my fantasy bid limits for AL-only, NL-only, and mixed leagues for auction formats. Listed below are the players whose prices have been shifted by two dollars or more in either direction. In most cases, I moved my prices up or down based on the results from the CBS and LABR NL and AL-only auctions in late February and early March. I may be all hot and bothered by Anthony Gose, but if his price is sitting in the mid-single digits in AL-only, there is little if any reason that I should be pushing him to $13. On the other hand, the purpose of this exercise isn’t solely to adjust bid limits based on what players went for in LABR. I want to express a preference, not merely follow the herd.
Adjustments below are for AL and NL only in the case of significant players whose value moved up or down by two dollars or more in either direction. Appropriate mixed bid adjustments will be reflected in the table at the bottom of this article.
A quick note: any late-breaking news will not make this piece (after 5 p.m. ET on Wednesday, March 18th).
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Non-CBS/LABR Related Adjustments
Clayton Kershaw $42 (previous $40)
I want to own Kershaw in every NL-only format I possibly can this year. Come at me, brah.
Hunter Pence - $19 (previous $26)
Broken bone. Should be back in early May. This price reflects some slight conservatism on my part.
Denard Span - $15 (previous $20).
I could be overreacting, but a core muscle injury for a player whose value revolves around his speed concerns me a great deal.
Adam Lind – $15 (previous $13)
Bumped up based on J.P. Breen’s input, the fact that first base in the NL is thin, and a look back at Lind’s $19 season in 2013.
Norichika Aoki - $14 (previous $11)
I looked at Aoki’s scan and saw much higher earnings. I’m biased against players with zero power in their profiles, but Aoki should produce enough to bring at least $14 of value back in mono.
Javier Baez - $12 (previous $14)
Baez really, really, really scares me. I know he could earn $15-20, but I’m not sold on him this year at all. A $12 investment in only that crashes and burns at middle infield can cause significant damage to your team.
Francisco Rodriguez – $11 (previous no bid)
Jonathan Broxton - $1 (previous $10)
Rodriguez was signed by the Brewers just after the first edition of the bid limits came out. Feel free to bump Broxton up to two dollars if you want to handcuff the duo.
Yonder Alonso – $10 (previous $7)
Alonso was touted at the Baseball HQ forum as a potential riser based on his unlucky BABIP and wrist and hand injuries masking the best contact, fly ball rates, and power metrics of his career. There is still room for improvement.
Jon Jay – $9 (previous $6)
Jay moves up based on Keith Cromer’s strong writeup on him in his NL outfielder piece.
Cliff Lee – $1 (previous $11)
Mike Minor – $2 (previous $9)
Zack Wheeler NO BID (previous $13)
Maybe Lee makes it back this year. I want no part of him. I still think Minor could pitch, but last year’s results combined with the latest injury speak to conservatism. Wheeler is done for 2015.
CBS/LABR Adjustments
Freddie Freeman - $25 (previous $23). CBS $28, LABR $30
I am not the Freeman fan some are but can concede that he should return value at this price. First base is also thin in NL-only thanks to the absence of Ryan Zimmerman and Pedro Alvarez in auctions taking place prior to the start of the regular season.
Stephen Strasburg – $24 (previous $22). CBS $28, LABR $27
Strasburg is going to sail past my price anyway, but he is worth considering in the mid-$20s.
Matt Harvey – $21 (previous $16). CBS $21, LABR $24
Do I want Matt Harvey in a redraft league? I don’t know. A $16 price meant I definitely wasn’t getting him. A $21 price kind of keeps my options open (I still don’t think I’m going to get him).
Gregory Polanco - $18 (previous $16). CBS $20, LABR $24
Polanco earned $11 in 277 at bats in 2014. You cannot simply prorate his 2014 stats and produce a dollar value, but it was worth adding a couple of bucks adjust for the upside.
Michael Morse – $14 (previous $12). CBS $17, LABR $16
The first base crunch pushes yet another player up. Morse scares me a little bit because of last year’s second half swoon but if he comes up at the “wrong” time in an auction he could easily sail past this price.
Brandon McCarthy - $10 (previous $8). CBS $12, LABR $14
I’m not as enthused as the market is, but the upside is certainly there if the adjustments McCarthy made in New York stick.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Non-LABR Adjustments
Yu Darvish – NO BID (previous $22)
Marcus Stroman – NO BID (previous $13)
Both pitchers are out for all of 2015.
Alex Cobb - $18 (previous $22)
This is a conservative price cut, for now. If you are auctioning this weekend in a non-keeper, I would recommend shaving another $4-7 off of his price, and I’d also cut his mixed price down to $9-11 or so.
Garrett Richards - $16 (previous $14)
Richards still might not be able to answer the bell on Opening Day, but he should still be fairly useful in mono formats even with 25-30 starts.
Michael Saunders - $14 (previous $12)
The injury news keeps bouncing back and forth with Saunders. This is a cautionary bump down; he could move back up fairly quickly.
Matt Wieters - $13 (previous $16)
I need more time to react to this news. It sounds like Wieters might not be ready for Opening Day.
LABR Adjustments
Jose Abreu - $33 (previous $31). CBS $38, LABR $37
I think the expert market is going too far but can concede that $31 is a little too conservative given what the market is paying.
Yoenis Cespedes - $23 (previous $21). CBS $25, LABR $25
I’m not the biggest Cespedes fan, but even if he is a “disappointment” his broad base of fantasy skills mean he can get to these earnings quite easily.
Chris Davis – $23 (previous $20). CBS $30, LABR $26.
I’m not buying a full bounce back for Davis, but there should be enough power here to put him ahead of someone like Chris Carter.
Victor Martinez – $21 (previous $19). CBS $23, LABR $27
The LABR price feels crazy to me, but Martinez needed a correction anyway after it was revealed that his injury wasn’t worst case.
Eric Hosmer - $17 (previous $15). CBS $20, LABR $21
I still dislike Hosmer but he earned $14 in an awful year in AL-only in 2014. I still stick by my James Loney Midwest comparison.
James Loney - $11 (previous $11). CBS $4, LABR $8
Logan Morrison - $10 (previous $13). CBS $3, LABR $6
Anthony Gose - $10 (previous $13). CBS $6, LABR $3
Didi Gregorius - $9 (previous $11). CBS $6, LABR $3
Brad Miller - $9 (previous $12). CBS $6, LABR $4
This group of players probably fell into my pet likes based on their prices. As you can see, I left enough wiggle room in their prices to buy any of these guys if I want to do so. On the other hand, I don’t want to buy an entire team of guys like this.
I’m off to Tout Wars this weekend. I’ll have more updates after I return from the trenches.
Mike Gianella is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
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Fantasy Auction Values... (02/23)
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10 comments have been left for this article. 
Evan Gattis, Russell Martin, Adam LaRoche, Brandon Moss, Max Scherzer and David Robertson are still listed with their former teams. Presumably there are a bunch of others too.
Doesn't taking Dellin Betances as the second AL closer seem a bit too high considering we don't know whether he is the closer yet and he's only had one season with elite skills?
1) There is an issue we have been alerted to that we are working on.
2) If you don't believe the skills are real, I'd agree he doesn't belong here.
A month later, taking Betances as the second closer looks pretty bad. The skills are there, but Andrew Miller posed real competition for the role and the manager never said that Betances was the closer. A slump during spring training and the start of the season has resulted in no saves for Betances so far. Having a firm grip on the closer role is an important ingredient for ranking a reliever so high.
On the other hand, I may be making too much of one example.