March 11, 2015

Five to Watch

American League Hitters

by Nick Shlain

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Austin Jackson – Seattle Mariners
While Jackson wasn’t exactly lighting it up with Detroit last year (.265 TAv), his season went completely off the rails after a trade to Seattle (.195 TAv in 236 plate appearances). His walk rate has declined for three straight seasons, and his ground-ball and strikeout (25 percent) rates increased in his time with the Mariners. If there was one positive to take away from his 54 games in Seattle it was his 11 steals in 13 attempts. He stole 20 bases on the season for the first time since 2011.

Jackson’s NFBC ADP is 245, which is 59^th among outfielders, and he recently was purchased for just $12 in the AL-Only expert auction league LABR. Despite his post-trade struggles, Jackson’s an established player and he didn’t simply forget how to hit all of a sudden. He’ll always be a bit of a streaky player due to his tendency to strikeout, but he’s a value considering where he’s being selected in drafts. Jackson has the potential to be solid in every category except RBI and could be an underrated source of runs as the Mariners’ leadoff man.

J.D. Martinez – Detroit Tigers
Everyone knows Martinez won’t repeat his .315 AVG from last year, but it’d be a mistake to assume he’s reached his power ceiling. Martinez hit 23 home runs last season, but remember he didn’t start a game for the Tigers until April 22^nd and didn’t hit his first home run until May 19^th—a pinch-hit game-tying blast off Indians closer Cody Allen. With more playing time this year, it’s not difficult to imagine Martinez eclipsing 30 home runs.

Martinez’ NFBC ADP is 121, which is 34^th among outfielders and way behind Yoenis Cespedes’ ADP of 63. Cespedes also went for $4 more than Martinez in AL LABR ($25-$21). The two are perhaps more similar than you think as you see the PECOTA projections for each below.

Cespedes had more RBI last year, but that’s no guarantee to continue with both in the same lineup now, and he hasn’t hit for much of an AVG since his rookie year in 2012. He also had his lowest home run total with 22 despite finally playing a mostly full season with 151 games played. Neither one is going to provide many steals, but Martinez looks like the better bet for AVG and power, and he’s going much later in drafts.

Brandon Moss – Cleveland Indians
While I was initially cautiously optimistic about Moss heading into this season as he was rehabbing his hip after surgery, now all of the reports from Indians spring training say that his recovery has gone very well. Moss even hit a home run in his first game action of the spring to boot. If he’s the same guy who hit 21 home runs in the first half in Oakland last year, he’s going to be a serious problem for opposing pitchers when they come to Cleveland, a much better home ballpark for hitters. Moss fits the type of hitter the Indians seem to target as he’s a left-handed hitter who won’t produce a good AVG, but has a ton of power and an above-average walk rate.

Jordan Schafer – Minnesota Twins
Schafer isn’t going to cost anything unless you’re playing in an AL-only; then, maybe he’ll cost $2. He’s not much of a hitter, but Schafer stole 30 bases last year between the Braves and Twins without recording 250 plate appearances. He’s proven that he can make an impact in fantasy with his speed while serving as the fourth outfielder. Playing time could also open up in the outfield along the way as the Twins are set to play Aaron Hicks (ew) and injuries limited Oswaldo Arcia to 103 games last year.

Josh Donaldson – Blue Jays
So, calling off Stroman on that bunt drill really seemed to work out, eh? You’re on red alert after that, Donaldson. Red freaking alert. You better stay away from Edwin and the Joses. Don’t even look in the direction of Michael Saunders.

I’m sorry, as you can see I’m not taking the Stroman injury news well at all. Anyway, I, now begrudgingly, like Donaldson this year. The move to Toronto should boost his overall power numbers.