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March 10, 2015 Fantasy FreestyleA Different Dynasty Top 101 List
Fun fact: I used to "compete" with Bret Sayre when it came to this stuff. Before the days of Craig Goldstein and I joining the fantasy team, I considered Bret to be something of a rival in the niche world of dynasty fantasy writing. We both published top-100 lists every year. We both wrote extensively about minor leaguers. Neither of us were very good at Twitter. We were on a collision course. Then, Bret started TheDynastyGuru.com. I agreed to write for him there, which led to him hiring me at BP, which led to TINO, which has led to the beautiful editor/writer, father/son, big brother/little brother relationship you see played out before you today. A good relationship, to be sure, but one that prevented me from publishing my individual fantasy rankings, as this rightfully is and will remain Bret's show. Until now, that is. This year, Bret has graciously allowed me to post my own rankings, which I cite often in my writing and on TINO. So let's make this clear: this is NOT the official Baseball Prospectus Dynasty Top 101. You can find the top half of that list here, and the bottom half of that list here. Bret's list is what we're using in the 2015 Futures Guide, and it's our official ranking. What follows is simply my personal breakdown of the top 101 dynasty league prospects, and while there are plenty of similarities between this list and Bret's, there are some key differences; both philosophical and in terms of individual player evaluations; that I think are interesting. Is this repetitive? Maybe. But the internet does love lists. Without further ado, here's my personal top 101, broken down by tiers:
Yes, Bret and I have the same top four. Thank god we published different rankings! On a serious note, these five are listed in one tier here, but really, Bryant and Buxton are on their own level, with Correa, Russell, and Seager just a touch behind. I do think people are overly optimistic on what Bryant can bring to the table this year, but in the long run you have to love his mix of upside and floor. Correa and Buxton will likely battle it out for 1-1 status next year.
Can I interest you in power? Soler should routinely challenge for 25 bombs in Chicago, while Gallo and Sano are the best bets in the minors to surpass 40 some day. I've been high on Gallo for a long while now, and while the swing and miss issues are real, so is the upside as a top-10 fantasy asset. If Yoan Moncada were elig … wait, he is! And so here he ranks, hindered by his signing with Boston in that it means he likely won't be a second baseman, but aided by the reality that Fenway Park will be his home.
In this year's BP Future's Guide, I wrote an essay detailing why it really only makes sense to target high upside fantasy starters, rather than settle for arms who project as no. 3-4 starters. Investing in top-shelf arms is often smart, albeit scary, and this group is very, very talented. Giolito has the highest upside but also possesses the most risk, while Syndergaard has a very high floor. Lindor and Pederson don't have massive upside, but both should make an impact in 2015 and both are safe bets to be fantasy factors for a long, long time.
Can I interest you in upside? Dahl is a potential OF1 in Coors Field. Anderson has a really low floor, but his ceiling is insane. Gray is one of my favorites, and while he has contextual factors working against him I think he's good enough to succeed in Colorado. Meyer and Sanchez are either going to be strikeout-heavy mid-rotation starters or elite closers, and they're going to make an impact this year. Swihart's the one guy in this tier who doesn't really fit the theme, but he's got a very high floor and he could be a top-10 catcher for years. Don't expect any real fantasy impact until 2016, but it's a good sign that his progression through the minors has been so linear.
Whereas the previous tier was all about upside, this one is more about floor. Bell might be more of a starting CI than a 1B if he moves from the outfield full time, but I believe in the bat. Winker doesn't have explosive upside but he's going to hit and is in a great park. Crawford could be a starting shortstop for many years, but is unlikely to be a consistent top-five option. I think Pompey gets a bit overrated in dynasty circles (guess I'm not an optimist about this), but he does have a great home park and should see among the most MLB time of any hitter on this list in 2015. Taillon lacks the ace upside many thought he had when drafted, but if the stuff comes back he'll be pitching in a great park and can be a solid SP 2/3 in his prime.
Hooray for offense! This is a meaty tier of non-elite hitters who could become fantasy factors in fairly short order. Having Williams this high will raise some eyebrows, but it won't be a shock if you listen to TINO. I believe in the hit tool, and while he's going to have to get better at making adjustments, the natural skills are there for him to hit for average and power with a few stolen bases sprinkled in, too.
Tapia ranks below the previous tier of outfielders because of distance from the majors, but he's headed to the Cal League and could put up numbers that make him a top-10 prospect at this time next year. Norris, Peraza, and Shipley don't have crazy upsides but should all be making an impact by late 2015 or early 2016. Stephenson is close and has huge upside, but he needs to refine his command before I get too excited. Glasnow, Harvey, and Stewart will take longer but could all be 200-plus-strikeout guys. From where I've seen Glasnow ranked elsewhere this offseason, now's a good time to sell high.
The first half of the list is capped with an intriguing collection of talent. Piscotty and Appel are here for their proximity to the majors and their enticing floors. Frazier, Schwarber, and Jackson are here for their upsides. Taylor and Alfaro have crazy tools, but may lack the refinement necessary to maximize the utility of said tools.
This is a dangerous collection of players to invest in, but there's just enough going for each of these guys that they really can't rank any lower. Zimmer and Hoffman have the stuff to be no. 2 starters, but their checkered medical pasts hold them back. Wisler and Owens lack that upside, but both should be ready for the majors by July and profile as safe mid-rotation fantasy talents. Almora and Meadows may contribute as modest five-category threats, but the former could be undone by his approach while the latter has yet to prove much in the minors. This group is best represented by the shruggy-guy emoji.
All of these players have questions and are a ways away from seeing MLB time, but they all have upside as top-10 options at their positions, too. Mondesi is a better "IRL" prospect than fantasy asset, while the opposite is true of McMahon. Barreto might need to move to second base, third base or the outfield, which would put a significant damper on his value. Turner faces questions about his ultimate position and his hit tool. Still, if you're going to gamble on prospects, gambling on those who might be infielders is a smart play.
Mid-rotation upsides, but crappy contextual factors. Womp womp.
Foltynewicz, Berrios, and Kolek have nothing in common, yet here we are: aren't fantasy rankings fun? Folty could be a mid-rotation starter who's great for strikeouts but bad for WHIP, but he is more likely a dominant reliever. Berrios lacks that type of upside, but has a high floor and will play in a great park. Kolek is forever away but we could eventually look at him like how we look at Archie Bradley now, though Kolek's secondary pitches have a lot further to go than Bradley's ever did. Hanson and Herrera aren't very exciting, but there's value in middle infielders and each could profile as such by July or August, or at least by 2016.
Here we have a collection of no. 3/4 starters who you'll probably see ranked higher elsewhere. But, as I mentioned above, I've done enough research on guys like these that I'm comfortable ranking them toward the bottom of this list. Manaea, Matz, and Rodriguez are an intriguing triplet of lefties who all seem to have prospect helium, but have a lot of proving themselves left to do. Cole, Gonzales, and Blair lack their upside, but all are a bit closer to the majors and arguably have higher floors. Then there's Vogelbach, who probably needs to change organizations and DH but who has the hit and power tools to remain relevant nonetheless.
Another pretty jumbled collection of talent. Devers has the upside to rank even higher, but we should show some restraint given that he's yet to play full-season ball. Still, if you're looking for the guy most likely to jump, say, 50 spots up this list next season, Devers is the one you seek. Robertson and Conforto are here for their floors as fantasy-relevant bats, while Gordon and Rosario are here for their upsides. Finnegan would rank near Berrios if I knew he would start but wouldn't be on the list at all if I knew he'd relieve, so this splits the difference. Lopez is super exciting, but he's in danger of becoming overhyped.
Quick disclaimer: there's no real difference between these guys and the preceding tier, but it's easier to break the list down into bite-sized pieces. Nimmo, Souza, and Margot are fun to lump together because of what they represent: Souza can be a no. 4/5 OF now, but doesn't have any appreciable ceiling. Nimmo has another season or so in the minors, but his upside is a touch higher. Margot has the highest upside of the three, albeit one still capped at a high-end OF3, but still needs to conquer High-A. Reyes and Severino have disgusting upsides, but the former is ages away, while there's still a really good chance the latter is a reliever. If Severino proves he can start, he's another candidate for a 50-spot jump up this list. Zimmer should be a fast-mover and is very close in value to the three outfielders above. Drury and Cecchini can both be second-division third basemen who are aided by contextual factors, though the Pablo Sandoval addition muddles Cecchini's future.
This is a really interesting mix of talent. Plawecki and Susac have top-12 fantasy backstop upside, but neither has a clear path to playing time nor favorable contextual factors. Olson and Dozier have big power but have yet to prove they can hit advanced pitching. Wall and Brinson are two names to dream on, though you'll need to be very patient with both. Almonte and Holmes are potential mid-rotation fantasy arms who'll find themselves in good situations if they stick with their current squads.
Rather than end on a high note, let's go out with a whimper! Lamb and Kingham lack upside, but they both figure to help you this year, they both have favorable contextual factors and they'll both skirt the fringes of 12-team dynasty leagues for a long time. In deeper formats, however, guys like this retain some importance, and so here we are. Honorable mention (in alphabetical order): Matt Barnes, RHP, BOS; Matt Davidson, 3B, CHW; Erick Fedde, RHP, WAS; Derek Fisher, OF, HOU; Kyle Freeland, LHP, COL; Billy McKinney, OF, CHC; Joe Ross, RHP, WAS; Marcos Molina, RHP, NYM; Gary Sanchez, C/1B, NYY; Domingo Santana, OF, HOU; Lucas Sims, RHP, ATL; Chance Sisco, C, BAL; Tyrone Taylor, OF, MIL; Touki Toussaint, RHP, ARI; Vincent Velasquez, RHP, HOU Players on Bret's list who didn't make Ben's: Gary Sanchez, C/1B, NYY; Tyrone Taylor, OF, MIL; Max Fried, LHP, ATL; Joe Ross, RHP, WAS: Touki Toussaint, RHP, ARI; Marcos Molina, RHP, NYM; Erick Fedde, RHP, WAS
Ben Carsley is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @bencarsley
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Is there an ETA for the Futures Guide?
I'll look into this for you!
Thanks Ben. Looking forward to it