March 6, 2015

Fantasy Players to Avoid

Relief Pitchers

by BP Fantasy Staff

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Previous articles in this series:

• Catchers to Avoid
• First Basemen to Avoid
• Second Basemen to Avoid
• Third Basemen to Avoid
• Shortstops to Avoid
• Outfielders to Avoid
• Starting Pitchers to Avoid

Our journey is at an end, friend. Thanks for the memories. Don’t draft these relievers or any relievers or anyone in general.

Sean Doolittle, Athletics
Doolittle isn’t someone to avoid altogether, as it could be worth taking a shot on him if he recovers quickly and remains healthy for the rest of the season. PECOTA expects as much, projecting him for a 2.05 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 56 1/3 innings with 31 saves and 68 strikeouts. No matter how much we like PECOTA, Doolittle is still recovering from a slight rotator cuff tear in his left shoulder, and there’s no reason to automatically assume the best-case scenario with his recovery. His NFBC ADP is 144, which is 17^th among relievers and ahead of Glen Perkins and Joaquin Benoit; I prefer both of them over Doolittle. Even if Doolittle recovers quickly, he could struggle to regain his effectiveness, and the Athletics acquired another good reliever in Tyler Clippard this offseason. —Nick Shlain

Ken Giles, Phillies
The common belief among human life forms is that Jonathan Papelbon will be traded to team outside the great state of Pennsylvania. However, that still has not happened and is unlikely to happen until the trade deadline at the earliest for a few reasons. One, the market of teams interested in his services continues to dry up. Two, the vesting option he has is a large impediment since he’ll be owed $16 million unless he finishes fewer than 48 games in 2015 (something he’s never done in a full season). Giles is a high-end reliever and valuable in any format, but there are high-end relievers available 30, 50, or even 100-plus picks later, and they don’t have the Papelbon trade scenario baked into their values.

So let's get to that value, because I don't want to think that this avoid is diminishing the quality of Giles as a reliever. In fact, I think he's destined to be one of the 10 best relievers in the league this year, period. However, this isn't a Kenley Jansen/Brandon League situation where the clock is just ticking on the incumbent blowing a few saves in a row and losing his job. Papelbon was actually quite good last year, and relying on Giles to get saves because of a trade is much different than asking him to get saves based on poor performance ahead of him. Even though Giles' ADP is falling slightly since the Brewers resigned Francisco Rodriguez—closing one door for his ascent—it's still too high based on the realistic percentage that he ends up with more than 3-5 saves. —Bret Sayre

Joe Nathan, Tigers
Is this a little obvious? Perhaps. Not even perhaps. Just yes. But per FantasyPros.com, Nathan’s ADP right now is 204. That’s fairly low, but it’s ahead of guys such as: Luke Gregerson and LaTroy Hawkins, who had much better years last year; Jake McGee and Jenrry Mejia, who could easily outproduce Nathan even if they don’t close all year; and Andrew Miller, Ken Giles, and Wade Davis, who very well might be more valuable than Nathan if they finish with fewer than 20 saves combined.

Nathan is 40 and was awful in 2014. His velocity has dropped precipitously over the past two seasons, his command is worsening rapidly and his line-drive rate has been on a pretty steady rise. There really aren’t any positive signs here, other than Nathan’s FIP was lower than his ERA last year. Given the rapid regression of his core skills, FIP doesn’t mean that much to me in this instance.

Want to know the real kicker? Joakim Soria, who ended last year as Detroit’s closer, is approximately 66 years younger than Nathan and who still has good stuff, has an ADP of 318. That’s more than 100 spots lower than Nathan, even when you adjust for park and era. A lot of people reading this site are already too smart to pop Nathan early, but if you were thinking about trying to steal an old name late, pick a different one. —Ben Carsley

David Robertson, White Sox
This is partially a cop out because I just wrote up Robertson in a Player Profile on Wednesday, but after looking at current ADP, he is the reliever whose price I find least appealing. Robertson is a very solid reliever and high socks are great, but he is currently being drafted as the first non-elite closer (NFBC ADP of 75). Given his potential problem with righties (who slugged .449 against him in 2014 and have always hit him better than lefties) along with his non-elite innings totals (career high of 66 2/3 major-league innings pitched in 2011), I much prefer the values of the closers being taken immediately after him. Dellin Betances threw 90 innings last year, while Mark Melancon, Cody Allen, and Trevor Rosenthal have all pitched 69-plus innings in each of the past two seasons. Why all the fuss about innings totals? Because any of these pitchers could perform best on a rate basis next season; thus, I prefer the ones who (i) are likely to throw more innings and (ii) are cheaper to acquire in drafts and auctions. —Jeff Quinton

Trevor Rosenthal, Cardinals
While Rosenthal’s 45 saves and an 11.2 K/9 rate a season ago brought much delight to his fantasy owners, there were some bumps in the road along the way, primarily driven by control issues. During his starting career in the minors, Rosenthal put up manageable walk rates; however, while in the closer role last year, the reliever was plagued by control issues all season, as they surfaced early in the year and simply never improved. Rosenthal allowed 25 free passes over his first 38 1/3 innings, and in August alone he walked 11 batters in 11 1/3 innings. He was also much more hittable as the season progressed, as his H/9 rate jumped to 8.7 over the last three months of the year. If not for his swing-and-miss rates and ability to keep the ball from leaving the yard, Rosenthal’s blown save (6) and loss (6) totals would have been even worse in 2014.

Early counts were a trouble spot for Rosenthal throughout the year, and that was particularly true of the first pitch. Rosenthal was either guilty of tipping pitches or just being too predictable, as 80 times last year batters swung at his first offering, and they slashed .329/.359/.452 in those trips, including going 14-for-27 when they put the opening offering into play. (Their OPS after taking the first pitch was .575.) He also allowed the first batter he faced in a game to reach base at a 40 percent clip, which is never a recipe for success in late-inning, high-leverage situations. In looking at Rosenthal’s overall numbers, the 45 saves he racked up are a misleading stat, especially considering he gave up one run or more in seven of those 45 “successful” outings.

Rosenthal’s control issues are certainly correctable, but a closer coming off a season with a 5.4 BB/9 rate is cause for legitimate concern. Don’t forget the Cardinals added veteran reliever Jordan Walden in the Jason Heyward deal for additional insurance at the back end of the bullpen, and Walden had success as a closer while with the Angels. The Cardinals recent history also shows they have not been tied to any one particular closer from year to year, and not opposed to giving ninth-inning duties to the hot hand. This is an organization that has had a different saves leader in each of the past five seasons (for fun, see if you can name them without looking up), so if Rosenthal’s control issues continue, there is little doubt Mike Matheny will look elsewhere for the job. While I am not writing off Rosenthal by any stretch, he is still a closer I would be wary of heading into 2015. —Keith Cromer

BP Fantasy Staff is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
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