March 4, 2015

Player Profile

David Robertson

by Jeff Quinton

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Player Background

While it seems like Robertson had been the closer in waiting forever, and while it seems like we can remember him as a closer for much longer than just last year, 2015 was his first season with more than three saves. Those that had used Robertson (for several exhausting years) as the example of how a pitcher needs “a closer’s mentality” in order to handle the role and that, as a result, leaving the closing duties up to someone other than a Proven Closer™ would prove disastrous, were proven wrong, at least in the case of David Robertson. They were proven wrong in his case because he saved 39 games, blew just five save chances, and was mostly his usual, dominant reliever self. Regardless of rhyme or reason, the White Sox gave him a four-year, $46 million contract to be their closer going forward. Rights, wrongs, and contracts can be a bore, so let’s move on to that “mostly” part for 2014 and then take a guess at future performance.

What Went Right in 2014

A whole bunch. Specifics follow:

• Strikeouts: Robertson posted the highest strikeout rate (37.1%) of his career. He did so through posting the highest swinging strike rate (11.9%) of his career. By throwing fewer pitches in the strike zone than ever before, while getting hitters to swing at a higher percentage of pitches out of the strike zone than ever before, Robertson was able to pile up the strikeouts (this probably relates, however, to his uptick in walk rate).
• Saves: As mentioned earlier, Robertson proved (to those who felt it needed to be proved) that he was capable of being a top closer. In fact, his success earned him the role of closer for the White Sox for as long as he can maintain sufficient level of performance.
• Health: After DL stints in 2014 (groins strain) and 2012 (oblique strain) to go along with other minor ailments in other years, Robertson got his first Baseball Prospectus Player Card Injury History Clean Sheet since 2011. (It should be noted that despite the minor injuries of the past, Robertson has pitched in 60 innings in each of the past five seasons.)
• Velocity: While his 92.60 mph cutter velocity is down from his 93.85 mph peak in 2012, it did stop a two-year downward slide, besting 2013’s 92.55 mph velocity.
• Wins: 4.

What Went Wrong in 2014

Not much went wrong, but he did see an uptick in ERA (3.08) and walk rate (mentioned earlier). The ERA was the result of Robertson being hit much harder by righties than in the past. While Robertson’s cutter-curve combo has always been tougher on lefties than righties, the righties got to him more than ever in 2014. Robertson allowed six of his seven home runs to righties, who slugged (for them) a career-best .449 against Robertson. So, how did that happen?

First, Robertson threw his cutter with more horizontal movement and less vertical movement than ever before. We can hypothesize that this would be an easier offering for righties to handle as the ball would be usually moving either (i) out of the strike zone or (ii) toward the barrel of their bats. Second, Robertson threw his curveball harder than ever (more slider like in velocity), which probably explains its dominance against lefties. However, this increased curveball velocity came at the expense of both vertical and horizontal movement, making it perhaps, an easier offering for righties to handle. The thought here is that the more the curveball moves like his cutter, the more change-up-y the relationship between the pitches becomes (if that makes any sense); and we know changeups are less effective versus same handed batters.

What to Expect in 2015

Please find Robertson’s 2015 PECOTA projections below:

I find myself pretty much agreeing with PECOTA. The minor health concerns of the past make it safer to project him at 60 innings rather than 70 (the most innings he has ever thrown in a regular season is 66 2/3). I think there is some upside in strikeouts given his new get-them-to-chase-more approach, but it is probably smarter to guess for Robertson to regress, at least slightly, back to his career norms. We should also monitor his velocity and movement trends of his cutter and fastball in spring training to see if they give us any indications.

Ultimately, I think Robertson will be a fine closer in 2015 and a top-10 one at that, but I think I would rather take a hitter or starting pitcher in the sixth or seventh round (his current ADP), and take Mark Melancon or Cody Allen potentially one to three rounds later.

The Great Beyond

Predicting one year out for closers is hard enough let alone predicting the great beyond. I will say though, that Robertson’s athleticism, control, and pitch mix bode well for an aging reliever. I will also say, however, that “[boding] well for an aging reliever” in the near future is not necessarily a high bar.

Jeff Quinton is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @jjq01
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