March 2, 2015

Fantasy Players to Target

Relief Pitchers

by BP Fantasy Staff

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Previous articles in this series:

• Catchers to Target
• First Basemen to Target
• Second Basemen to Target
• Third Basemen to Target
• Shortstops to Target
• Outfielders to Target
• Starting Pitchers to Target

These guys are moderately less likely to haunt your dreams than the average relief pitchers.

Cody Allen, Indians
I typically try to wait longer than this before targeting my first reliever, but so far in drafts this year, I’ve found myself jumping the gun early for Cody Allen. He’s not in the top tier of relief pitchers, but in my estimation he is just as good as anyone in the second tier. The 26-year-old is coming off two phenomenal seasons out of Cleveland’s bullpen, and he’ll finally be getting a full season in the closer role. Consider 2015 to be the last season you’ll be able to get him for a relative steal.

Last year, Allen had to wait two months before finally taking the save opportunities from John Axford, but ended up with 24 saves over the season’s final four months. He relies on a fastball/curveball mix that has resulted in a strikeout rate of 31 percent over the last two seasons, with a roughly average walk rate of nine percent. He’s posted sub-2.50 ERAs in both of his full seasons and has identical 2.99 FIPs in each of the last years. Among the 109 relievers with at least 100 innings since the start of 2013, he’s 12th in both ERA and strikeout percentage, and 28th in FIP. The Indians have put together a solid team for 2015, and figure to be a sexy pick for the AL Central winner when we get into prediction season. Allen should have no shortage of save opportunities, and his talent level could very easily make him a 40-save candidate who will help in strikeouts and ERA as well.

Allen is being taken in the 110-120 range right now, and while there are good options behind him, most don’t possess the same ceiling/certainty combo that the Cleveland closer can offer. Going ahead of him are names like Dellin Betances, Trevor Rosenthal and Huston Street. Betances hasn’t been given the closer role yet, and could see some save opportunities taken away by Andrew Miller. Rosenthal has a huge ceiling, but he took a major step back with his control in 2014. Street is leaving Petco and spending an entire season in the American League for the first time since 2008, and already couldn’t keep pace with Allen in strikeouts. If you’re going to take a closer in the first ten rounds, Allen will give you the best value of any of the names likely to come off the board in this time. —Matt Collins

Joaquin Benoit, Padres
Whether you believe Benoit is a bargain or not likely ties into your faith (or lack thereof) on the health of his shoulder. Benoit missed 38 days in 2014 (spread across three separate time periods) due to a combination of shoulder inflammation and shoulder tightness. In early drafts and auctions, some fantasy managers have been taking Kevin Quackenbush, either as a hedge to Benoit or as his own separate entity, due to the belief that Benoit is a health risk.

While Benoit does present some risk, he isn’t necessarily a greater risk than any other relief pitcher specifically due to aches and pains. When Benoit is on the diamond, he has been a tremendous pitcher, posting a ridiculous 1.78 ERA over the last two seasons, including a 1.49 ERA as a Padre. As great as Benoit has been, the Petco bump is part of the reason that Benoit is a reliever I’m targeting this year in all formats. Benoit’s current ADP puts him 19^th-highest among relievers, behind pitchers like Jonathan Papelbon (trade risk) and Sean Doolittle (injured). Benoit’s risk isn’t as high as these pitchers, yet he is being taken toward the back end of the “certain” closers thus far.

This is an example of where the upside is being ignored, perhaps because Benoit is a) older and b) a reliever, which makes his perceived upside is limited. The idea of draft upside is sometimes overblown, but as I have mentioned previously in this space upside isn’t something that should automatically be linked to younger players. If Benoit can manage to put up another ERA under 2.00 and whiff over 10 batters per nine innings this year, this is a significant bargain in the making. Benoit has the potential to be a top-10 closer in 2015. Of all of the relievers being drafted in the bottom half, Benoit seems to have the greatest potential to out earn his draft slot. —Mike Gianella

Josh Fields, Astros
Sure, why not? The point in tabbing Fields here is two-fold. One, relievers aren’t worth investing in heavily on draft day. And two, Josh Fields deserved a much better fate last season and actually pitched pretty well. His strikeout rate of 11.52-per-nine checked in 18^th among all relievers, and his K-BB% cracked the top-20 as well. Of all the relievers in that top 20 of strikeout rate his FIP-ERA was far and away the widest spread, as his 2.09 FIP belied an ERA in the mid-four’s. The unsightly topline number was largely the product of poor luck on a couple levels. Fields is an extreme fly-ball pitcher on account of frequently working his borderline-unfair 94-mph cutter up in the zone. Yet despite inducing (largely weak) aerial contact on over 60 percent of the balls put in play against him, he was saddled with a .343 BABIP on the year. And worse yet, a whole bunch of that poor luck showed up with runners on, leading to an ugly 60.4 percent strand rate that was the third worst among the 142 qualified reliever last year.

Stuff-wise, the cutter serves as chief executive of a three-pitch arsenal that actually rates above-average across the board per PITCHf/x and includes a change-up that's good enough to at least keep lefties honest. Houston made some nice additions to their bullpen this winter with Gregerson and Neshek joining the Chad Qualls Party at the back of the Astro bullpen, and it’s unlikely that Fields cracks that top three for save opportunities in the early going. But in deeper leagues where you’re forced to run a bunch of not good starters out there at the back of your rotation in pursuit of counting stat accumulation Fields is the kind of dirt cheap target that can help balance out some of the ratio damage the Clay Buchholz’s of the world invariably inflict upon your squad. Fields is going a cool 77^th among relievers and 588^th overall right now, so he’s pretty much there for the taking whenever you get around to it at the back end of your draft. Be the guy that takes a chance on Josh Fields because… well, why not? —Wilson Karaman

Kenley Jansen, Dodgers
Everyone knows Jansen is good. He's a top-four closer (along with Kimbrel, Chapman, and Holland) thanks to his dominant strikeout rate (39, 38, 38 percent(s) the last three years) and a career ERA of 2.25. He's struck out 448 batters over 287 2/3 innings in his career, and as a closer for one of the best teams in the game, plenty of wins come his way to close out. Now, it's fair to point that many of those wins come as blowouts or non-save situations, but it's part of his appeal nonetheless, it seems.

The reason he's even a consideration for something like this rather than an obvious "duh" is the foot injury that's going to keep him out ‘til the end of April or possibly May. This deservedly drops him out of the tier mentioned above, but it's important to note that as a fantasy owner you're dealing with more than just Jansen - you're dealing with his roster spot. Being aware of the injury and the ability to DL him immediately. This means you can compensate for his absence by snagging a lower-end closer (LaTroy Hawkins) a little earlier than you might otherwise, or bumping up a guy like Brad Boxberger, who is only supposed to have the job while the incumbent closer is injured. Also, as a reliever, his shouldn't require too much ramp up and shouldn't suffer much from missing spring training.

All this is to say: Yes, Jansen should be docked some points for potentially missing a third of the season, but don't let that get in the way of realizing he's going to be there for two-thirds of the season, and you can plan around the other third. —Craig Goldstein

Koji Uehara, Boston Red Sox
I fully understand why Uehara is currently being drafted as the 14th reliever. I’m aware the former NPB star will turn 40 this year, lost a mile per hour on his fastball, and compiled his highest FIP since the 2009 season. Fantasy owners are worried about his health and whether he’ll be able to pitch more than two days in a row. I get it.

At the same time, he’s slated to be the closer on an improving Red Sox club. His 18.8 percent swinging-strike rate ranked second in all of baseball, even ahead of the invincible Craig Kimbrel. Uehara limits walks, strikes out a ton of batters, and will have a fantastic shot at 30-plus saves if he’s healthy. He’ll depress your rate statistics, while not draining the strikeout category (comparatively speaking) like Zach Britton or Huston Street, who are currently going ahead of Uehara.

Extraneous concerns are not irrelevant. That is, fantasy owners who are skittish due to age and injury worries have valid points. My point is that the core skills appear to still be top-tier for Uehara, and he’s currently being drafted as the 14th-best reliever. I like to target mid-tier options that have the core skills to be top-tier, as I don’t like the sticker price on elite relievers. Uehara is being overlooked by too many fantasy owners this year. He’s being treated as if he’s broken, but his split-fingered fastball might enable him to continue to outrun the standard aging curve. —J.P. Breen

BP Fantasy Staff is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
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