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February 26, 2015 The Top 101 Dynasty League Prospects for 2015Part 2: 1-50 (plus one)
Being a self-proclaimed veteran of these lists, I’ve spent the introduction space here on plenty of topics—ranging from the benefits of reading scouting reports, to not giving up on guys too quickly, to reflecting on your own personal biases. There are always discussion points to jump into here that discuss how best to digest and use the information embedded in this article—possibly one for each of the over 9,000 words spread across these 101 players. This time, I’m going to focus on one that we all know, yet are often afraid to put into action. As excited as we get about the top prospects in baseball, they represent a value. A number. A price point. And while so many owners, including the ones on this staff, can fall in love with their favorite prospects, the risk in holding onto the larvae of the fantasy world when they can be used best as currency is one that we don’t often consider. If I own Tim Anderson (and believe me, I do), my first thought is always going to be on the type of player Anderson could be—when it should be equally on both that and what Anderson could return for me now in the trade market. Though the pull of drafting a player out of the amateur ranks or picking up a player when he was far from a top-101 prospect is strong, it’s not the same way you’d generally view a financial investment. Not to get too Quinton on you, as that’s best saved for the man himself (seriously, go read his chapter), but if you buy a share of stock at $20 and it goes up to $40, maybe it’s time to cash it in for something that actually costs $40, rather than waiting for it to go up to $75. It’s both a truth and a fallacy that dynasty championships are won by building a strong farm system. The fallacy is that those players are the ones that will lead you to a string of trophies and jellybeans—the myth perpetuated best by the “constant rebuilder.” The truth is that a strong farm system will grant you entrance into the area of the trade market you need to pass through to truly build a contender. Not all prospects are created with equal ETAs, and even the ones with equal ETAs have varying performance curves and eligibility. Waiting for the moon and stars to line up will often cause owners to bypass their window to win, so while it’s important to be excited about the players we’ll get to shortly, it’s also okay to shed the fear that we associate with letting them go. Now, the fine print… First, there are a few disclaimers specific to the prospect list to go over before we jump in. Again, these rankings are for fantasy purposes only and do not directly take into account things like an outfielder’s ability to stick in center or a catcher’s pop time. Of course, these things do matter indirectly, as they affect a player’s ability to either stay in the lineup or maintain eligibility. So, while Austin Hedges may be a top-25 prospect on BP’s Top 101, this is due in large part to his defensive value; and you’ll see that he’s not on this list because his upside isn’t nearly as great for fantasy. Additionally, home parks need to be factored in, just as when we are when talking about a major-league player. If Nelson Cruz’s fantasy potential shrinks on going from Baltimore to Seattle, we can’t pretend that these prospects operate in a vacuum, unaffected by park factors. Of course, there’s no guarantee that they will reach the majors with their current organization, so while it is not a heavy consideration, it is reflected. But most importantly, the intention of this list is to balance the upside, probability, and proximity of these players to an active fantasy lineup. Within the list that follows, you’ll find important information about each prospect, including his potential fantasy value (in dollars) at their peak and the risk factor associated with reaching that peak. Also, you will find a fantasy overview, which summarizes how many categories each player will be useful in, along with any that carry impact. For this exercise, we defined “impact” as having the potential to be in the top 15-20 players in a given category. For instance, impact in home runs is the potential to hit 30 and impact for strikeouts is the potential to punch out 200. Then you’ll see a realistic ceiling and floor for each prospect, purely in terms of Rotisserie value, and a brief comment that adds a little extra color. The comments are specifically brief because I’ve already written fantasy-specific comments on each of these players in the individual top-10 lists (which are great and which you should read, if you haven’t already). So without any further ado, here is the newest batch of the best prospects for dynasty leagues, 1-50. Be sure to check out prospects 51-101 here. 50. Michael Taylor, OF, Washington Nationals Age: 24, Previous Rank: NR Potential Earnings: $25-30 It may seem rough to throw a high risk factor on a player who has seen major-league time, but fantasy owners don’t get extra credit for Taylor’s defense. The power and speed are very attractive, but despite a shiny batting average in Double-A, he’s got a ways to go to tap into them in Washington. 49. Alex Meyer, RHP, Minnesota Twins Age: 25, Previous Rank: 42 Potential Earnings: $15-20 Don’t take the ceiling/floor designations to mean he’s destined for the bullpen. In fact, I think it’s likely he remains a starter. However, I think we’ve gotten to the point with Meyer where he would be more valuable if he turns into a strong closer than if he tops out as a starter. 48. Steven Matz, LHP, New York Mets Age: 23, Previous Rank: NR Potential Earnings: $20-25 Did you know that they are all left-handers who throw off mounds? Sarcasm aside, Matz could turn out to be the version of Jonathon Niese that Mets fans always wanted to see—with solid SP3 valuations and the potential for a shiny ERA in that park. 47. Jake Thompson, RHP, Texas Rangers Age: 21, Previous Rank: NR Potential Earnings: $20-25 Those of you who know how much affection I have for Edwin Jackson understand that floor isn’t a knock at all. Thompson could rack up large strikeout numbers given his frame and his fastball/slider combination. He could sneak into the majors as soon as late 2015. 46. Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees Age: 22, Previous Rank: NR Potential Earnings: $20-25 Judge is the rare Yankees prospect who doesn’t get overrated among the general public. He’s a behemoth of a man, and his power is worthy of his size, but he’s going to have to prove that he can make enough contact as he moves up for it to make a difference in fantasy leagues. 45. J.P. Crawford, SS, Philadelphia Phillies Age: 20, Previous Rank: 81 Potential Earnings: $20-25 Crawford is about to go through the same cycle that Lindor did two years ago. Right now, he’ll be overvalued because he’s being juiced up prospect lists—then next year, he’ll be underrated because everyone will know him as a guy who is more valuable in real-life. 44. Matt Wisler, RHP, San Diego Padres Age: 22, Previous Rank: 38 Potential Earnings: $15-20 Some guys just are who they are, and Wisler is a decent mid-rotation pitcher who will shortly wind up in a strong park for decent mid-rotation pitchers. And while Petco may not play as extremely as it used to, and A.J. Preller seems to have a disdain for defense, it’s still an attractive place to find arms. 43. Jose Peraza, 2B, Atlanta Braves Age: 20, Previous Rank: NR Potential Earnings: $15-20 Peraza is on the radars of those in both redraft and dynasty formats, given the black hole that is second base on the Braves’ depth chart. Don’t expect too much in the current year, as it’s still not all that likely he gets to Atlanta before July, but he should be a nice source of steals with a decent average moving forward. 42. Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates Age: 21, Previous Rank: 47 Potential Earnings: $25-30 There are going to be plenty of lists that have Glasnow higher based on upside alone, and I completely understand that, but Glasnow is a terrifying player to own and I would be selling him based on his current perceived value. The stuff is unquestioned, but so are the control issues. 41. Mark Appel, RHP, Houston Astros Age: 23, Previous Rank: 26 Potential Earnings: $20-25 Owning Appel in 2014 was like ending up on a roller coaster when you thought you were waiting in line for a carousel. But just like any fun ride, we’re pretty much back in the same place we started at, despite any dizziness we might feel. 40. Nick Williams, OF, Texas Rangers Age: 21, Previous Rank: 94 Potential Earnings: $25-30 For a player who has already reached the levels Williams has, there is still a ton of risk remaining because of his incredibly aggressive approach. However, his bat-to-ball skills are among the best in the minor leagues, and there’s both power and speed to boot. 39. Hunter Harvey, RHP, Baltimore Orioles Age: 20, Previous Rank: 65 Potential Earnings: $20-25 Harvey ended the 2014 season with an injury blip, but back at full health, he’ll look to reach the upper minors in 2015. The fastball/curve combination is very legit and could lead to 200-plus strikeouts at the major-league level if everything breaks right. 38. Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays Age: 21, Previous Rank: 51 Potential Earnings: $20-25 During 2014, Sanchez showed what he could do coming out of a major-league bullpen—and it was nasty. What we don’t want to see happen next is him get pigeonholed as a reliever because he was so good in his first stint, but he still holds a lot of upside in a rotation spot. 37. Braden Shipley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks Age: 23, Previous Rank: 68 Potential Earnings: $20-25 It’s alright to be skeptical of a right-handed pitching prospect who relies as much on his change as Shipley does, but that sells the rest of the profile short. With three pitches that could get major-league hitters to catch nothing but air, he could reach the 200-strikeout mark once he sharpens the curve. 36. D.J. Peterson, 1B/3B, Seattle Mariners Age: 23, Previous Rank: 67 Potential Earnings: $20-25 It really is a shame that Peterson had to wind up in Safeco, as we’d be drooling over him if we were in Philadelphia or Baltimore. The average and power should both be very helpful, but neither is likely to get to the point where he could turn into a top-five third baseman. 35. Maikel Franco, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies Age: 22, Previous Rank: 35 Potential Earnings: $15-20 Those who were ready to anoint Franco the Phillies third baseman of the future and an investable dynasty league asset at this time last year weren’t wrong, but they were a little overenthusiastic. He remains a player built for 5x5 roto, with his defense and on-base partially sinking the overall package. 34. Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates Age: 23, Previous Rank: 21 Potential Earnings: $20-25 Forget about Taillon at your own risk. He will return early in 2015 from Tommy John surgery and even if the Pirates take their time, he should be ready to fill A.J. Burnett’s slot in the rotation next April. There may not be the upside many thought when he was taken second overall in the draft, but he’s still a pitcher in Pittsburgh. 33. Clint Frazier, OF, Cleveland Indians Age: 20, Previous Rank: 19 Potential Earnings: $30-35 The fact that Frazier still ranks this high should shock absolutely no one, as he more than held his own in the Midwest League as a teenager. Just because he didn’t put up disruptive numbers doesn’t mean he’s any less exciting for fantasy than he was at this time last year. 32. Chi Chi Gonzalez, RHP, Texas Rangers Age: 23, Previous Rank: 85 Potential Earnings: $20-25 I’m well aware that I’m the high guy on Gonzalez, but there’s nothing in his stuff, performance, or development that has given me a reason not to be. He’ll never be an SP1, even in deep leagues, but he can be a very strong SP3 for the better part of a decade, even in Texas. 31. Blake Swihart, C, Boston Red Sox Age: 22, Previous Rank: 96 Potential Earnings: $20-25 Having come a long way since he made his full season debut, Swihart is now considered just about a lock to stick at catcher long term and hit for a strong average. How much power he can tap into at the major-league level will determine whether he’s a great fantasy option or just a middle-of-the-road one in mixed leagues. 30. Nomar Mazara, OF, Texas Rangers Age: 19, Previous Rank: NR Potential Earnings: $25-30 Mazara took an unexpected jump up to Double-A in 2014, which helped facilitate a somewhat unexpected jump up the fantasy rankings. The prototypical right fielder could end up launching homers in a ballpark that helps induce them as soon as midseason 2016. 29. Jesse Winker, OF, Cincinnati Reds Age: 21, Previous Rank: NR Potential Earnings: $20-25 There’s more ceiling around him on this list, but it doesn’t mean that Winker should be overlooked or that he lacks upside of his own. There’s nothing wrong with a hitter who could approach .300 with 20 homers annually. 28. Raimel Tapia, OF, Colorado Rockies Age: 21, Previous Rank: 54 Potential Earnings: $30-35 The dreams can be limitless when you put someone with a plus-plus hit tool in Coors and sprinkle in a healthy dose of speed and some power potential. And his minor-league numbers as he heads to the California League are unlikely to do much to pour water on those expectations. 27. Rymer Liriano, OF, San Diego Padres Age: 23, Previous Rank: 80 Potential Earnings: $20-25 Liriano started the offseason as a strong candidate to get 300-400 plate appearances for the Padres in 2015, but ended it under a mountain of high-profile corner outfielders. With a less certain ETA, Liriano’s readiness becomes less important, but the power/speed potential remains. 26. Jorge Alfaro, C, Texas Rangers Age: 21, Previous Rank: 27 Potential Earnings: $25-30 As Alfaro’s ETA approaches, the volatility of his future value decreases, but catching prospects are always higher in risk than prospects at other positions. The 25-plus-homer power is very real, but he’s already growing out of his double-digit steal ability and the plate discipline leaves a lot to be desired. 25. Josh Bell, 1B/OF, Pittsburgh Pirates Age: 22, Previous Rank: 82 Potential Earnings: $20-25 In the near term, Bell looks to get some chances at first base because of the crowded Pirates’ outfield—and with those guys all locked up for a while, that won’t clear up anytime soon. However, if the bat plays, it will play anywhere and there’s no reason he can’t get that OF back in-season. 24. Daniel Norris, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays Age: 21, Previous Rank: NR Potential Earnings: $20-25 Norris took one big wrong turn out of the gate after being drafted, but it’s been full steam ahead over the last couple of seasons. He’s unlikely to rack up huge strikeout totals (think more in the 160-170 range), but his floor is higher than almost anyone on this list and he’s ready now. 23. Robert Stephenson, RHP, Cincinnati Reds Age: 22, Previous Rank: 23 Potential Earnings: $25-30 The Reds fireballer took a step back in 2014, but has the raw stuff to rack up strikeouts at the major-league level. The ballpark is unfortunate, as velocity begets velocity, but greater consistency in his command and secondary offerings could get him closer to an SP2 future. 22. Kyle Schwarber, C/OF, Chicago Cubs Age: 22, Previous Rank: NR Potential Earnings: $25-30 Schwarber shouldn’t have earned much in the way of helium for destroying pitchers who stood little chance against a high-end college hitter, but he doesn’t need much helium anyway. Schwarber can hit for average and power, so even if long-term catcher eligibility isn’t in the cards, he’ll still be a regular on mixed-league rosters. 21. Andrew Heaney, LHP, Los Angeles Angels Age: 23, Previous Rank: 34 Potential Earnings: $20-25 If you’re looking for sheer upside, Heaney’s doesn’t stand out amongst the players around him, but he’s already made his major-league debut and looks to play a big role for the Angels this season. He has the profile and pitchability to step right in as an SP5 in mixed leagues this year. 20. Dalton Pompey, OF, Toronto Blue Jays Age: 22, Previous Rank: NR Potential Earnings: $20-25 Alright, so the floor may be a little harsh, but Pompey ranks up here because he’s here now and there’s five-category potential in a loaded lineup. The 2014 fantasy pop-up darling may still have his nonbelievers, but I think they’ll be thinned out by around midseason. 19. Carlos Rodon, LHP, Chicago White Sox Age: 22, Previous Rank: NR Potential Earnings: $25-30 The general belief is that we’ll see Rodon at some point this summer for the Pale Hose, but the better question is which Rodon we will actually see. If he’s the pitcher he was this spring, it’s more of a mid-rotation profile. But if he’s the guy from his sophomore year and his pro debut, there’s certainly more. 18. Tim Anderson, SS, Chicago White Sox Age: 21, Previous Rank: 61 Potential Earnings: $30-35 It’s easy to drool over the stats that Anderson could put up, especially with the ballpark helping him out, but despite having Double-A experience, he remains relatively raw and there are loud questions about his defense. However, his value gets buoyed in roto leagues by that 30-plus-steal potential. 17. David Dahl, OF, Colorado Rockies Age: 21, Previous Rank: 37 Potential Earnings: $30-35 Dahl gets the opposite movement as the player directly in front of him, just because of his nonpitcherness. The upside is tremendous, with Coors helping out in the one category he could be below-average in at sea level. It would not be a surprise if Dahl ended up as a top-five fantasy prospect at this time next year. 16. Jonathan Gray, RHP, Colorado Rockies Age: 23, Previous Rank: 20 Potential Earnings: $25-30 We often talk about easy analysis being easy, and yes, Colorado pitchers should scare you as an entire group, but Gray’s stuff is as good as the Rockies have seen since that time Ubaldo Jimenez was an absolute monster. Be wary of the park, but bet on the pitcher. 15. Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians Age: 21, Previous Rank: 33 Potential Earnings: $20-25 We played this game last year, but Lindor is this high on a fantasy list because he’s as much of a lock to be a contributing member of a mixed-league team as anyone on this list. His defense will keep him in the lineup and likely overrate him in dynasty leagues, but there is real top-10 shortstop potential here. 14. Dylan Bundy, RHP, Baltimore Orioles Age: 22, Previous Rank: 18 Potential Earnings: $25-30 It’s unfortunate when people forget about, or are unnecessarily down on, a prospect with an elite amateur and minor-league track record because of injury. If the person who owns Bundy in your league is one of those people, now might be a good time to teach them a lesson. 13. Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks Age: 22, Previous Rank: 12 Potential Earnings: $25-30 There is no shortage of high-end pitching prospects who take steps back every year, but the developmental curve can be nastier than Bradley’s. After poor performance and an elbow strain set him back, Bradley returned with a vengeance and a cutter in the Arizona Fall League. He’ll look to do in 2015 what he couldn’t last year, and make an impact in Arizona. 12. Julio Urias, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers Age: 18, Previous Rank: 45 Potential Earnings: $25-30 There’s very little question that Urias is the top left-handed pitching prospect in baseball these days, and that excitement carries over to fantasy leagues. It’s still incredible that he will pitch most of the 2015 season in the upper minors as an 18-year-old, and his age gives him a leg up on some other arms with similar upside in the long term. 11. Joey Gallo, 3B, Texas Rangers Age: 21, Previous Rank: 83 Potential Earnings: $25-30 The power is prodigious—and likely the best in all of the minors—but Gallo still has plenty of development ahead of him before he can hit at the major-league level. If you’re expecting him to contribute in 2015, you’ll likely be disappointed, but his strong work ethic and baseball IQ give him a good chance to put it all together. 10. Joc Pederson, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers Age: 22, Previous Rank: 32 Potential Earnings: $20-25 Similar to Soler, Pederson is staring ahead at a ton of playing time in 2015, mostly because the Dodgers don’t really have anyone else they can play in center field. Pederson has been tagged as a grinder who gets the most out of his tools, and while that’s correct, it sells the tools he does have short. 9. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Washington Nationals Age: 20, Previous Rank: 17 Potential Earnings: $30-35 There’s ceiling and then there’s Giolito’s ceiling. Have you ever seen the Sistine Chapel? Sort of like that, but on the mound. The fact that a pitcher who hasn’t pitched above Low-A is a top-10 fantasy prospect is nearly unheard of, but there’s something special brewing in that right arm of his. 8. Noah Syndergaard, RHP, New York Mets Age: 22, Previous Rank: 13 Potential Earnings: $25-30 Many, including myself, thought that Syndergaard would be ineligible for this list, but it should be no great surprise that he checks in as the top fantasy pitching prospect in baseball. His advantageous home park and division should be nice bedfellows for his top-shelf stuff, and he’ll push through the Mets’ rotation depth in short order. Yoan Moncada, SS/2B, Boston Red Sox Editor’s note: Moncada wasn’t on the original list, but having just signed prior to the list’s publication, Bret was kind enough to put together a fantasy profile for a player who will surely be of interest to many. This is where Moncada would have slotted had he been eligible for this ranking.
Age: 19, Previous Rank: NR Potential Earnings: $35+ It’s all pomp and circumstance right now for Moncada, but all eyes will be on the latest import once he reports to Red Sox camp in Fort Myers. The reports on him range from excellent to just downright stupid, and for all the talk of his real-life value, he’s shaping up to be a better player in our world. That’s a little scary. 7. Jorge Soler, OF, Chicago Cubs Age: 23, Previous Rank: 46 Potential Earnings: $25-30 Of all the players on this list, Soler is most guaranteed playing time in 2015, as he’ll likely roll out as Chicago’s opening day right fielder. Pitchers began to figure him out after a blazing start, and how quickly he can adjust back will dictate where his fantasy value goes in the near term. 6. Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers Age: 20, Previous Rank: 36 Potential Earnings: $25-30 The sweet-swinging still-a-shortstop continues to impress as he moves up the ladder and could reach Los Angeles as soon as late 2015—though next year is more likely. There’s still a very good chance he ends up at third base long term, but he may surprise many by keeping that shortstop eligibility for a few seasons. 5. Miguel Sano, 3B, Minnesota Twins Age: 21, Previous Rank: 7 Potential Earnings: $30-35 The missed season was certainly a bummer for Sano, but thankfully he’s not a pitcher. One of the small handful of prospects in the minors with elite raw power, he will try to get back on track to hit Target Field in 2016. And it’s a good thing the Twins are a team of the Twin Cities, since some of his bombs may wind up in St Paul. 4. Addison Russell, SS, Chicago Cubs Age: 21, Previous Rank: 9 Potential Earnings: $25-30 There’s a level of certainty with Russell that pushes him up into the top five, even though organization depth could push him off shortstop in the short term. He’s young and close to major-league ready, and although his ceiling isn't quite as high as Correa’s, it’s still more than enough to get very excited about. 3. Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros Age: 20, Previous Rank: 5 Potential Earnings: $35+ Sure, there’s a chance he could move off the position, and he’s not going to make any major contribution in steals, but Correa has a chance to be the best average/power bat that we’ve seen at the position since Troy Tulowitzki. Like we’ve been hammering home, with talent like this, eligibility is very, very secondary. 2. Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins Age: 21, Previous Rank: 2 Potential Earnings: $35+ There is a healthy debate to be had as to whether Buxton or Bryant deserves top billing, but there should be no debate that they are the first two prospects on this list. Buxton’s injury-plagued 2014 season pushed back his ETA (which contributed to his ranking), but did not diminish any of his upside. 1. Kris Bryant, 3B, Chicago Cubs Age: 23, Previous Rank: 10 Potential Earnings: $35+ It takes an awful lot of thump to unseat Buxton as the top fantasy prospect in the game, but Bryant has it. He has done nothing but hit since he entered pro ball, and though you can quibble about his contact rate, there’s little standing in the way of him being a fantasy star and in short order.
Bret Sayre is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @BretSayreBP
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Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and ALCS Gam...
If Matz's floor is MadBum and ceiling is Kershaw, shouldn't he be #1? That's a pretty high floor if you ask me.
Or, at least the #1 pitching prospect in the game.
Ray
Whoosh...
It's a (tongue-in-cheek) reference to this article: http://m.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/meet-matz-mets-pitching-prospect-line-article-1.2102556
One of the NY tabloid papers going over the top? I can't believe it!
I had a feeling that was what you were referencing, but wonder if others who read this would take it literally.
Nice work as always.
Ray
No you didn't.
it would've been funnier if your floor was the other Madison bumgarner - http://www.sbnation.com/lookit/2014/12/9/7360277/madison-bumgarner-madison-bumgarner
just saying...
That sarcasm totally went over my head as well. I usually skim all the BP articles in the AM and the read deeper as the day allows.
Thankfully caught the comments. Disaster averted lol.