February 11, 2015

Fantasy Tiered Rankings

Outfielders 31-60

by Nick Shlain

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The tiered rankings series continues with the second installment of our outfield rankings. This, of course, was a collaborative effort as J.P. Breen handled the top 30 outfielders yesterday.

Players at each position will be divided into five tiers, represented by a “star” rating. Five-star players are the studs at their position. In general, they are the players who will be nabbed in the first couple of rounds of the draft, and they will fetch auction bids in excess of $30. Four-star players are a cut below the studs at the position. They will also be early-round selections, and they are projected to be worth more than $20 in most cases. Three-star players are the last tier in which players are projected to provide double-digit dollar value in auctions, and two-star players are projected to earn single digits in dollar value in auctions. One-star players are late-round sleepers and roster placeholders. The positional tiers aren't simply a regurgitation of last year’s values but rather try to offer some insights into what we expect will happen in 2015.

We retained last year's roster requirements for the positional tier series. Dollar values come from last year’s PFM using a 12-team, standard 5x5 scoring format, with 23-man rosters and the following positions: C (2) 1B (1) 2B (1) 3B (1) SS (1) CI (1) MI (1) OF (5) UT (1) P (9). The minimum bid for players is $1, and, as we did last year, we'll allocate $180 of a $260 budget to hitters. Players needed to play in 20 games at a position to qualify there. The PFM is customizable, so if your league uses a different format you can adjust it to match your league settings and see how it impacts players’ dollar values.

Players with multi-position eligibility are listed at the position where it is most likely they would start in a standard fantasy league, which means some players with outfield eligibility may be located in a different tiered rankings list.

Three Stars (continued)

Player	Team	Mixed $	AL/NL $	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Marcell Ozuna	MIA	$14.49	$21.10	612	72	23	85	3	.269
Brett Gardner	NYY	$18.80	$26.82	636	87	17	58	21	.256
Denard Span	WAS	$21.93	$28.36	668	94	5	37	31	.302
Matt Holliday	STL	$17.17	$22.24	667	83	20	90	4	.272

These players fell just short of making the top 30, but we’re still calling them three stars. Coming off offseason surgery for a hernia puts a bit of a damper on Span’s outlook for this season, but he was outstanding last season as he posted a career-high contact rate and hit at least .300 and scored at least 90 runs for the first time since 2009.

Gardner reached double-digit home runs for the first time last year, blasting 17. Nine of his homers came on the road, so the power is not just a product of Yankees Stadium, but it’ll be interesting to see if he’s pitched differently this year. More walks and times on base could mean more stolen base opportunities for Gardner.

Three-Star Value Pick: Marcell Ozuna
Ozuna strikes out a ton and will struggle to hit above .270 without a high BABIP, but he has legitimate power. While Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich may overshadow Ozuna in the Marlins offense, don’t forget about him come draft time. Ozuna’s NFBC ADP is currently 137, which is 37th among outfielders and, frankly, too low.

Two Stars

Player	Team	Mixed $	AL/NL $	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Mookie Betts	BOS	($8.18)	$3.21	213	34	5	18	7	.291
J.D. Martinez	DET	$13.28	$20.86	480	57	23	76	6	.315
Leonys Martin	TEX	$14.59	$25.74	583	68	7	40	31	.274
AJ Pollack	ARI	($1.19)	$10.93	287	41	7	24	14	.302
Alex Rios	KC	$6.32	$16.59	521	54	4	54	17	.280
Rusney Castillo	BOS			40	6	2	6	3	.333
Wil Myers	SD	($6.56)	$4.18	361	37	6	35	6	.222
Lorenzo Cain	KC	$13.06	$23.95	502	55	5	53	28	.301
Yasmany Tomas	ARI
Jorge Soler	CHC		$0.80	97	11	5	20	1	.292
Jayson Werth	WAS	$18.45	$23.32	629	85	16	82	9	.292
Khris Davis	MIL	$9.31	$17.88	549	70	22	69	4	.244
Desmond Jennings	TB	$4.27	$14.80	542	64	10	36	15	.244
Austin Jackson	SEA	$9.02	$19.06	656	71	4	47	20	.256
Coco Crisp	OAK	$8.05	$18.14	536	68	9	47	19	.246
Oswaldo Arcia	MIN	$0.41	$9.58	410	46	20	57	1	.231
Gregory Polanco	PIT	($0.67)	$11.07	312	50	7	33	14	.235
Marlon Byrd	CIN	$14.89	$21.66	637	71	25	85	3	.264
Steven Souza	TB		($2.82)	26	2	2	2	0	.130
Carl Crawford	LAD	$8.93	$19.55	370	56	8	46	23	.300
Joc Pederson	LAD		($3.59)	38	1	0	0	0	.143
Torii Hunter	MIN	$13.42	$19.82	586	71	17	83	4	.286
Dustin Ackley	SEA	$6.79	$15.50	542	64	14	65	8	.245
Adam Eaton	CHW	$6.78	$15.92	538	76	1	35	15	.300
Curtis Granderson	NYM	$9.73	$18.75	654	73	20	66	8	.227

Everyone loves Mookie, but PECOTA really loves him. He’s projected to hit .280 with 11 home runs, 80 runs, and 26 steals in his first full season. His time in this tier could be brief.

While J.D. Martinez’ strikeout rate and BABIP from last season scream regression, he’s shown enough at the plate to believe he’ll still hit .270 with power. Unfortunately, from a value perspective, he and Rusney Castillo (119) have the highest NFBC ADPs beside Mookie Betts in this tier. Helium is also hurting Gregory Polanco as his NFBC ADP of 135 is higher than those of both Marcell Ozuna and Brett Gardner.

I’m pretty close to being done with the Desmond Jennings-Austin Jackson-Coco Crisp group altogether. Jackson’s been an up-and-down player throughout his career, but he completely fell apart after he was traded to Seattle last year. Jennings still hasn’t figured out right-handed pitching and Crisp’s 2013 power breakout was perhaps a fluke, not to mention he seems to be breaking down physically.

Steven Souza is nearly 26 and has just 26 career plate appearances in the majors. He’s also the owner of one of the most interesting PECOTA projections (.261, 25 home runs, 26 steals, 83 runs, and 80 RBI) this year.

Marlon Byrd is the Matt Holliday of this tier. He’s old and doesn’t have a ton of upside, but he is reliable.

Two-Star Value Pick: Dustin Ackley
Ackley has been a frustrating player to follow over the years because he seems to be constantly tinkering with his approach. He started swinging more at the midway point last year, trading walks for more solid contract and he hit .269/.307/.476 in the second half. Hopefully, he sticks with this approach since the adjustment produced positive results. His NFBC ADP is a laughably low 317, which is 78th among outfielders. Somehow Allen Craig is being taken ahead of him. It’s a joke.

One Star

Player	Name	Mixed $	AL/NL $	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Avisail Garcia	CHW	($11.36)	$1.17	190	19	7	29	4	.244
Alejandro De Aza	BAL	$4.24	$15.20	528	56	8	41	17	.252
Dexter Fowler	CHC	$2.75	$12.72	505	61	8	35	11	.276
Michael Saunders	TOR	($5.50)	$4.51	263	38	8	34	4	.273
Angel Pagan	SF	$2.03	$13.40	413	56	3	27	16	.300
David Peralta	ARI	($2.56)	$8.94	348	30	8	36	6	.286
Rajai Davis	DET	$18.22	$29.28	494	64	8	51	36	.282
Anthony Gose	DET	($8.26)	$4.44	274	31	2	13	15	.226
Carlos Beltran	NYY	($0.77)	$8.51	449	46	15	49	3	.233
Michael Cuddyer	NYM	($5.72)	$6.54	205	32	10	31	3	.332
Travis Snider	BAL		$7.59	359	37	12	38	1	.264
Josh Reddick	OAK	$0.17	$8.59	396	53	12	54	1	.264
Dominic Brown	PHI	$1.21	$12.40	512	47	10	63	7	.235
Norichika Aoki	SF	$5.61	$15.65	549	63	1	43	17	.285
B.J. Upton	ATL	$5.36	$17.36	582	67	12	35	20	.208
Michael Bourn	CLE	($1.12)	$8.56	487	57	3	28	10	.257

While this tier doesn’t look that bad, most of the one-star players are below the line for standard mixed leagues.

Michael Saunders will be a good power and speed combination if he can stay healthy in Toronto’s revamped lineup, just don’t expect him to repeat his AVG.

Angel Pagan hasn’t played 100 games since 2012 and is coming off back surgery for a bulging disc. He’s a risky proposition at this point in his career.

Rajai Davis checks in ahead of Anthony Gose here despite the assumption that Gose will play more this season. Playing time against right-handed pitching could be sparse for Davis, but Gose still needs to show he can hit and steal bases. Both players are better suited for “only” leagues, where speed-only players are more valuable.

One-Star Value Pick: Travis Snider
Snider isn’t going to be the player the Blue Jays thought they were getting when they drafted him 14th overall in 2006, but he’s revived his fantasy stock after looking like a complete bust not so long ago. The trade to Baltimore and the other hitter friendly ballparks in the AL East should give his power numbers a little boost. He’s being drafted like he’s completely off the radar as his current NFBC ADP is 484, which is 103rd among outfielders.