An Agent's Take: The U... (02/04)
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February 4, 2015 Daisy CutterWelcome Back, Votto
When Theo Esptein was introduced as president of baseball operations for the Chicago Cubs in November of 2011 he said, "To me, baseball is better with tradition, baseball is better with history, baseball is better with fans who care, baseball is better in ballparks like this, baseball is better during the day. And baseball is best of all when you win." It’s a bit hokey, but yeah, I can get on board with most of that. However, I would add one more thing to that list: Baseball is better with Joey Votto. The star first baseman has become a favorite in the advanced-stats community and a pariah for some old schoolers who believe he doesn’t do enough at the plate. It’s an oft-debated topic, one that likely got a little worn out at times, but certainly sparked some spirited discussions. But like Votto, even those arguments were missing for much of last season. For Votto, last summer turned into a sort of soap opera, as there were those suggesting he play hurt, Votto defending himself for finally going to the disabled list (when it turned out he actually was playing hurt), and eventually some Reds fans turning on him. No, it wasn’t a pretty 2014 for the former MVP. He played just 62 games last season, much of it trying to play through quad injuries, and he certainly wasn’t prototypical Votto when he was on the field. The Reds lefty has a career slash line of .310/.417/.533, exactly the type of numbers that one needs to put up to be among the elite first basemen in baseball. However, last year was rough—at least for what we expect from Votto—as he posted a .306 TAv and 1.8 WARP. Just prior to being placed on the DL for the second time last summer, a stint that would take out the rest of his season, I had the chance to talk to Votto on a variety of topics. One thing he told me was how his ability to take walks (15 percent walk rate for his career, and would-be-if-eligible major-league-best 17 percent last season) makes him valuable whether he’s healthy or not.
“I have not been healthy this year on a consistent basis, and I’ve still had a fine year. I’m still providing value for the team, despite how I’ve felt physically. And I’m going to continue to do that because it’s one of the skills that I have. That’s the sort of skill that has a chance to stick with me the rest of my career.” Votto posted a .390 OBP last season and that’s a down year, as even he admits. His TAv fell just behind Miguel Cabrera and Edwin Encarnacion and was ahead of the likes of Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Donaldson. When he’s fully healthy, Votto is among the best offensive forces in the game. "I can’t predict the future, but I do know that I’ve been able to help the team despite not feeling 100 percent,” Votto told me last June. “If I’m 100 percent and I’m feeling good then I’m in a different conversation in terms of hitters in the game. When I was healthy, I won a Most Valuable Player. When I was healthy, I was doing some pretty cool things. But it happens. People get injured all the time.” There was no hesitation from Votto, who clearly isn’t lacking in confidence. When we spoke, he was convinced that the only reason he wasn’t putting up MVP-like numbers was because he was playing hurt. And history backs up that belief: In three of his previous four seasons he had two sixth place finishes and took the trophy home in 2010. Even in that fourth season, in which he had knee surgery and managed just 111 games, Votto still received some down-ballot votes and finished 14th. But there will always be detractors to Votto’s style of play, those who often complain that he’s too passive and doesn’t do enough to drive in runs. When I asked if it upset him that some parts of the media don’t believe he’s doing his job since he’s not a traditional “run producer,” Votto responded with a flat-out no. But he did admit to some exasperation with how the message was sometimes delivered to fans, distorting what he believed he brings to the table. “The only time I think it’s frustrating is when they trick the fans, when the fans don’t get an idea of what I’m providing,” Votto said. “It’s this perception that RBIs are a whole number, one full run produced. But it’s hard to explain to the fans the base/outs run scoring opportunities that (Tom) Tango came up with. It’s hard for (certain media) to understand that because they don’t want to understand that. They like nice, clean numbers and they want to enjoy the game. And that’s ok.” Votto went on to say that he believes the media has three responsibilities: to entertain, to inform, and to create a story. He admitted that when he signed up to play baseball, he knew there would be both good and bad things written about him, no matter what he did. Votto didn’t seem upset with what he feels are misconceptions about his patient approach; he just takes it as part of his job. Votto can wax poetic on the role of media, how his skills make him valuable when healthy or not, and can discuss the coming of the next Joey Votto. But maybe what’s most interesting about him is how he sees the game, his willingness to not only embrace forward-thinking statistics, but also critique when those statistics are implemented poorly. In the previous link, Votto told me that BABIP is used too often to brush aside a cold or hot streak—an assertion I believe many of us would agree with. But he also thinks placing balls in play in three categories is much too simplistic. “Those are really crude stats right now,” Votto interjected when I suggested that a player may be performing better because his line-drive rate was up. “The groundball, fly ball, and line drive are rudimentary. There’s not enough information in terms of velocity off the bat, fly ball distance, the trajectory of the ball off the bat. Are these rollovers? Are these balls that are kind of back-spun through the infield? Are these top-spun line drives? Are these weak line drives? If you can put it into three categories… we’re going to look back and say, ‘well, that’s probably not enough information.’” As someone who tries to get players to be as technical as possible, no matter how over my head it may be, I can tell you that Votto is a rare breed as a far as his willingness to open up. At least he was on this occasion. Votto went on to admit that MLBAM’s Statcast could certainly help those of us in the media and interested fans improve the way we analyze the game, but he added that those aren’t things he or many other players look into. And as much as he respects the people in front offices who are diving into those innovations and numerous others, Votto extolled the virtue of scouts as well. “These guys are bright guys, they can see all kinds of stuff just with their eyes,” Votto said. “A lot of these guys have 10, 20, 30 years of baseball experience. They can evaluate a player’s swing, overall performance on the field, and see whether or not he’s trending a certain way.” Spoken like a truly well-rounded Sabermetrician. Votto references Tango-made statistics, knows his OBP is more valuable than his RBI, and explains why analysts need to be digging deeper with our statistics. The only way he’d be more loved by the stats community is if he got traded to the Rays and converted himself into a plus-framing catcher. Alas, it’s highly unlikely he’ll take that route, but the good news is all offseason reports suggest Votto is 100 percent and ready to rebound in 2015. PECOTA agrees, projecting a .328 TAv, which would be the third highest of his career, and a strong 5.3 WARP. Let’s hope he’s even better than that, because baseball is certainly more entertaining with a healthy and productive Votto.
Sahadev Sharma is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @sahadevsharma
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Man, Sahadev. You are really good. Thanks for your work.