February 5, 2015

BP Experts Prospect Mock Draft

Rounds 5-7

by Bret Sayre

In all of our responsibilities, we make decisions and come up with ideas that are not our finest moments. It’s human nature. It’s what drives us to do better. When I came up with the idea to create a mock prospect draft for dynasty leagues years ago, it was one that frankly I wasn’t sure would be super helpful or entertaining—but it has turned into one of my favorite exercises of the off-season. And it’s only become more fun as the participants have gotten stronger. This year we added names from CBS, BaseballHQ, and Rotoworld—along with many of our household-name-in-the-fantasy-community participants form last year.

Just like we did last year (and the year before that), we first must examine the parameters. There are always parameters. These were the instructions for the participants of this draft, straight from the email I sent out prior to kickoff:

“The premise is very simple, we're drafting a minor league roster for a brand new dynasty league team (no one has a major league roster yet). The "league" is a standard 15-team 5x5 rotisserie where you keep all players indefinitely with no contracts/salaries involved. The first rule is that any player you select must currently still have their prospect status in tact. The second rule is that there are no other rules. You don't have to fill any position requirements, it's just about building the type of farm system you would want to start from scratch with. And yes, both Rusney Castillo and Yasmany Tomas are eligible.”

Just 15 guys drafting 10 minor leaguers a piece to start a dynasty league roster with. And the most fun part about this exercise is that with all of the picks, I asked each “owner” to write a quick comment on why they were taking the player—so you’re going to be reading analysis directly from the person who made the pick in the draft. The result of this is not a precise prospect list by any means, but a great representation of how minor league players are valued for fantasy across the industry.

And as an added bonus, I’m going to add in a few noteworthy picks from last year’s corresponding rounds—since many of the participants returned to test their meddle once again. Here are a few picks that jumped out as particularly prescient (and no, I’m not excluding my own picks, as there are a few that I’m proud of—and the ones I’m not, you’ll have to dig through the archives to find yourself):

• At Pick 5.70, our own Craig Goldstein took Arismendy Alcantara—a player he had been on for a long time—and it made him look quite prescient, as Alcantara is now a power/speed threat at the major-league level.
• At Pick 6.81, John Sickels took a falling James Paxton, and would have been rewarded handsomely if this were a draft we all played out. Paxton looks like a potential SP3 now, assuming he can stay on the field.
• At Pick 7.92, resident marginal TINO host Ben Carsley selected Joey Gallo despite saying, and I quote, “Yes, this pick scares the hell out of me.” Instead, Gallo’s power scared the hell out of pitchers across the minors and he now clocks in as a top-10 prospect.

With those pleasantries out of the way, here are rounds five through seven of the 2015 Baseball Prospectus Experts Mock Prospect Draft (and, if you missed them, you can see rounds 1-2 here, and rounds 3-4 here):

Round Five

5.61) J.T. Realmuto, C, Miami Marlins (Jim Callis, MLB.com)
“I'll go with position scarcity here and take a rare catcher who can contribute a little bit of everything in all five categories (as well as provide quality defense behind the plate, not that it matters for our purposes). Realmuto is a gifted hitter with gap power, and I can see him hitting .275 with 12-or-so homers and a fair amount of runs and RBIs. He's no speedster but he has enough athleticism and base-running savvy to steal a few bases, too.”

5.62) Matt Wisler, RHP, San Diego Padres (Nick Shlain, Baseball Prospectus)
“Wisler’s final numbers with Triple-A last year weren’t great (5.01 ERA and 1.43 WHIP), but the 21-year-old adjusted well enough to put up a 3.38 ERA in his last eight starts there and it was the PCL after all. He’s on the cusp of pitching in the major-league rotation, but could still start the season in the minors.”

5.63) Kevin Plawecki, C, New York Mets (Al Melchior, CBS)
“It would have been nice to see Plawecki hit for more power in the PCL, but he's moved rapidly through the Mets system, posting low strikeout rates at every stop. There have been some signs of power as well, especially of the doubles variety, and he doesn't appear to need much more time in the minors. It's not clear how he will find a path to play in the majors as long as he is blocked by Travis d'Arnaud, but his bat and defense should find him an opportunity by 2016, if not sooner.”

5.64) Garin Cecchini, 3B, Boston Red Sox (Craig Glaser, BSports)
“After three straight picks selecting young, high upside prospects I'll change pace a little here and select a more polished, more proven, less toolsy player here. Cecchini had a taste of the majors in 2014 and projects as a close to league average bat already, due to his ability to get on base. It will be interesting to see if Cecchini can add some power to his repertoire and whether he'll be able to steal some bags in the majors but his approach at the plate should at least ensure that we have the opportunity to see what he can do.”

5.65) Andrew Susac, C, San Francisco Giants (John Sickels, Minor League Ball)
"I'm not sure if Kyle Schwarber, who I already have on the roster, will remain a catcher. But it seems that Andrew Susac will, even if he is temporarily blocked. What Susac did in the majors last year is exactly what he should be expected to do: hit somewhere in the .250-.270 range with above-average power and solid defense. Finding a catcher who can hit, field, and is still young seems like a good goal in any dynasty-type setting. Susac probably won't help much in the batting average category but the power should play for years.”

5.66) Hunter Dozier, 3B, Kansas City Royals (Brent Hershey, BaseballHQ)
“While he's not yet racked up significant HR numbers in the minors, Dozier has shown the strength and hitting instincts to develop into a plus third baseman. He's got the prototypical size (6-4, 220), along with the hands, range and arm for the position. Though he scuffled after a mid-season promotion to Double-A, Dozier exhibits good contact ability, a keen eye at the plate and a short swing that's currently geared gap-to-gap. He will never be a power monster, but the potential BA-and-HR combo could be exciting.”

5.67) Sean Manaea, LHP, Kansas City Royals (James Anderson, Rotowire)
“I would have preferred to go with a position player here, if everything was equal, but I found the 6-foot-5, 235-pound southpaw with mid-90s gas difficult to pass up. Manaea’s overall numbers last season were impressive, and in the second half he was particularly dominant, posting a 1.96 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 79 Ks in his final 73 1/3 innings. He has some room for improvement with his secondary offerings, but at this point in the draft I felt Manaea had the most upside of any pitcher likely to start the season in the upper levels of the minors.”

5.68) Alex “Chi Chi” Gonzalez, RHP, Texas Rangers (Bret Sayre, Baseball Prospectus)
“This pick should not be a surprise at all, as I’m one of the drivers of the Chi Chi bandwagon. The right-hander is never going to be an ace, but with his plus stuff across the board (fastball, slider, change, command, control), he should be able to step into the Rangers’ rotation in the second half and be usable in fantasy leagues nearly immediately. Of course, that ETA is far from a guarantee, but even if it’s a 2016 debut, Gonzalez can be an SP3 for a long, long time.”

5.69) Nick Gordon, SS, Minnesota Twins (Chris Crawford, Draft to the Show/ESPN)
“Gordon is a better "real life" prospect than a fantasy prospect, and if you get a chance to see him play shortstop you'll understand why. With that being said, there is offensive upside in his bat. He won't hit a ton of homers, but there's sneaky power in his bat, and that along with an above-average hit tool and plus speed give him the chance to be a well above-average shortstop in terms of fantasy impact.”

5.70) Aaron Nola, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies (Eno Sarris, FanGraphs)
“Guess I like the Phillies' farm system. You might have noticed another relevant theme though: Ppportunity and readiness are important to me. At least in fantasy. On another team, you might overrate opportunity—don't worry about where an Athletics prospect is going to play, for example—but the Phillies have been holding on to their youth for a while now. Nola's velocity explosion didn't hold completely in his transition to the pros, but I see the former LSU product as a high floor guy anyway, due to the fact that his curve and change are both average-to-plus and I believe in his command. He's already had a taste of Double-A and is coming out of college, so I won't have to wait long to get some major-league data from him. Fits this farm system like a glove.”

5.71) Daniel Robertson, SS, Tampa Bay Rays (Ben Carsley, Baseball Prospectus)
“Robertson has really grown on me as a fantasy prospect since he was drafted. The two big caveats here are obvious: he may not be a long-term shortstop and his gaudy 2014 stats came in the Cal League. That being said, while I've never laid eyes on Robertson personally I've read plenty of reports that suggest he could at least break into the majors as a shortstop. Plus, even if he moves off the position, he's going to second or third base, so he's still fairly high up the fantasy positional ladder. There's some exciting multi-position eligibility potential here, too. I think he's routinely going to hit for double-digit homers and post good averages and OBPs, and while there might not be start potential here, he could be a fantasy asset for a long time. The way infielders are flying off the board, I'm happy to get him in the 70s.”

5.72) Willy Adames, SS, Tampa Bay Rays (Mike Rosenbaum, Bleacher Report)
“I was prepared to grab Daniel Robertson here until Carsley took him right before my slot. So, with a shortstop atop of my to-do list, I decided to go for upside and selected Willy Adames in the fifth round. Adames started to come into his own in 2014, as the then-18-year-old batted .271/.353/.429 with 41 extra-base hits in 514 plate appearances in the Midwest League. He’s multiple years away from making an impact in the major leagues, but the potential is there for a .270 hitter with 20-plus bombs at maturity, which also would make him moving from shortstop to third base less of an issue.”

5.73) Dilson Herrera, 2B, New York Mets (D.J. Short, Rotoworld)
“Herrera's stock is on the rise after hitting .323/.379/.479 with 13 home runs, 71 RBI, and 23 stolen bases over 128 games as a 20-year-old last year between High-A St. Lucie and Double-A Binghamton. The strong performance earned him his first call-up to the big leagues last August. Not bad for someone who was acquired along with Vic Black from the Pirates in the Marlon Byrd deal in 2013. Herrera is listed at just 5-foot-10 and 150 pounds, but he has quick hands and more pop than you'd expect. He's also likely to get stronger. While Herrera will be Triple-A bound to begin 2015, he figures to replace Daniel Murphy as the starting second baseman in 2016. I love the potential at a position which tends to have scarcity.”

5.74) Ryan McMahon, 3B, Colorado Rockies (Craig Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus)
“McMahon suffers/benefited from the same ballpark quirks that Tapia did, but I'm content to find out what's real and what isn't with both. He displayed the swing-and-miss in his game from the start, whiffing almost 26 percent of the time, but compensates by showing enough power to make it worthwhile. While it might be concerning to rely on minor league power figures, McMahon boasts plus raw power and enough of a hit tool to let it function fully. He was a disaster at third base in Asheville, with 32 errors on the season, but the former prep quarterback has a strong, accurate arm and should improve in that regard. If he's not a third baseman, the value of the profile decreases considerably, but if he can stick at the position he's a potential first division player.”

5.75) Grant Holmes, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers (Ray Guilfoyle, Fake Teams)
“Holmes was the Dodgers’ first-round pick in the 2014 draft, falling to no. 22 and thus surprising many of the experts. Some question his smallish frame, but he possesses two plus pitches, striking out almost 30 percent of the hitters he faced last season. He should start the season in Low-A and has the potential to be among some of the top pitching prospects in the game by the end of the season.”

Round Six

6.76) Amed Rosario, SS, New York Mets (Ray Guilfoyle, Fake Teams)
“Rosario is the Mets’ shortstop of the future, and it’s too bad he isn't big-league ready now, as the Mets have a huge hole at the position at the big-league level. Rosario has the potential to be an impact bat at the shortstop position, with a good shot at being a power/speed contributor once he makes it to the big leagues. Still young, he is still about three years away from helping the Mets in the middle of the infield.”

6.77) Jake Thompson, RHP, Texas Rangers (Craig Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus)
“I actually had Thompson higher on my board than McMahon, but pitching has been sliding and my hopes of sneaking him through to the next round were fulfilled. Criminally underrated, the 20-year-old Thompson has already reached Double-A on the back of a wipeout slider and a low-to-mid 90s fastball. Both pitches have plus potential, and his currently fringy changeup projects as a third average offering. He's been known to use a two-seamer to induce ground balls and will drop in a curve here and there to keep hitters off balance. The hammer has fringe-average potential but could be scrapped if they think his focus is better served elsewhere. His command is shaky at times, as evidenced by his 12 percent walk rate after arriving in Frisco during the summer, but he produced a much more manageable 7.3 percent figure in a larger High-A sample. Thompson misses plenty of bats and has the stuff and build to be a middle of the rotation workhorse. Exactly the type of guy who plays up in fantasy thanks to the strikeouts.”

6.78) Marco Gonzales, LHP, St Louis Cardinals (D.J. Short, Rotoworld)
“Gonzales was considered to be on the fast track to the majors when the Cardinals selected him in the first round in 2013. He didn't disappoint, flying through four levels in the minors before making his major league debut last June. The results weren't overly impressive across five starts and five relief appearances, but he got plenty of swings and misses, especially with his excellent changeup. I still see some strikeout potential even though he's not a hard-thrower and projects as a mid-rotation type. No pitcher is truly "safe," but I like Gonzales' chances of being a solid contributor for a long time. His role is uncertain going into 2015, so all he needs is an opportunity.”

6.79) Jeff Hoffman, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays (Mike Rosenbaum, Bleacher Report)
“With Hunter Harvey locked in as the no. 2 starter on my fantasy staff and the draft order snaking back toward the top, Jeff Hoffman’s ace upside here in the sixth round was simply too good to pass up. He probably won’t contribute at the major-league level until 2017 after undergoing Tommy John surgery last spring, but at the same time, there are only a select few pitching prospects in the minors who can match his fantasy potential as a five-category contributor. Given the success rate of Tommy John surgery these days, there’s no reason to believe Hoffman won’t bounce back from the surgery and prove to be well worth the wait. While he’ll have fallen behind the developmental curve by the time he returns to the mound in late 2015, Hoffman’s athleticism and pure stuff should help make up for the lost time and put him back on course for a highly successful career in the major leagues.”

6.80) Dan Vogelbach, 1B/DH, Chicago Cubs (Ben Carsley, Baseball Prospectus)
“This is probably the last thing I'll ever write for BP, as Bret is going to kill me for taking his boy, but this is a nice spot for Vogelbach. Yes, he needs to stay away from snacks, but he's a potential 5+ hit, 6+ power guy who should start 2015 in Double-A. I'm aware that he might move to the AL and become a pure UT option, but given that teams are willing to play Evan Gattis in the outfield and Wilin Rosario at all, I don't think everyone places as much of a premium on defense as we do: someone could easily plop (that is the sound I assume he would make) Vogey at first base for a few years. It's tough to find a quality hitter who isn't in the low minors at this point in the draft, and while there are some attractive arms on the board still, I feel better about adding them later.”

6.81) Michael Conforto, OF, New York Mets (Eno Sarris, FanGraphs)
“Dogma doesn't serve you well as you find yourself further and further into a draft. Yeah, I've been into close, easily projectable players with immediate opportunity so far. But I'm happy to get a position player I think should be in the top 50 at this point in this draft. Conforto is a college bat and should move fast, but the soon-to-be 22-year-old hasn't tasted Double-A, and might end up at first base, so he's a higher-risk prospect than I've taken so far. No matter. Good patience and decent contact are the cornerstones for his value. I'm betting his raw power starts showing up in games soon. Maybe even as soon as he gets out of the power-sapping park in Savannah and into a friendlier league.”

6.82) Stephen Piscotty, OF, St Louis Cardinals (Chris Crawford, Draft to the Show/ESPN)
“There are some guys who just understand how to hit, and Piscotty appears to be one of those select few. My one concern fantasy-wise is that he doesn't have a ton of power, though this isn't Juan Pierre, either. A .300 hitter who can give you double-digit homers and a handful of steals is a valuable fantasy player, and that's what I think Piscotty becomes, maybe even in 2015.”

6.83) Manuel Margot, OF, Boston Red Sox (Bret Sayre, Baseball Prospectus)
“It’s certainly a shame Ben had to ‘slip’ into that bottomless pit after selecting Vogelbach a few picks before me, but move on we must. Margot is someone I’ve had my eye on ever since he excelled in the Dominican Summer League in 2012, and as he’s moved up the ladder, his speed and sneaky power makes him a strong dynasty investment. In many ways, he could be a similar player to the 2014 version of Brett Gardner—which would be a strong option as a third outfielder. And while it won’t directly affect his fantasy value, Margot’s plus defense in center field will give him more opportunities for playing time at the major-league level.”

6.84) A.J. Cole, RHP, Washington Nationals (James Anderson, Rotowire)
“Through six rounds, I’m the only person with four pitchers, but I could not bring myself to stray from my board when a player of Cole’s caliber was sitting there at pick 84. Viewing these guys strictly as commodities, I could use my four high-end pitching prospects to acquire major league or minor league hitters if that becomes necessary. However, with Syndergaard and Cole likely to contribute this season, my minor league system will be two pitchers lighter in short order, which makes this a relative non-issue. With 63 innings at Triple-A under his belt, Cole is a relatively safe option with less upside than the rest of the pitchers I have taken to this point. I expect him to be a mid-rotation arm on a contending team in a weak division for the rest of the decade, and that has significant value. One side note: I had Manuel Margot second on my board behind Cole heading into Bret’s pick and would have strongly considered popping Margot out of order had Bret gone in a different direction, but that decision was taken out of my hands.”

6.85) Matt Olson, 1B, Oakland Athletics (Brent Hershey, BaseballHQ)
“As we head to the back-end of the draft, I hope to be focusing on guys with one (or more) standout tool or an overall rawness to their game that needs refinement. Olson has it in power—cracking 37 HR, even in the California League's hitter-friendly environment, is worthy of notice. Yes, he'll swing and miss, and one of the things to watch is his ability to hit the breaking ball as he moves up to Double-A this year. But at 6-4, 235, he's built for power, is a good defender at 1B, and his discerning eye at the plate (117 walks in 512 AB) is a bonus. Of guys currently at the position, he's the best first-base prospect in the game.”

6.86) Aaron Blair, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (John Sickels, Minor League Ball)
“Blair is often paired with fellow Arizona prospect Braden Shipley. Blair is more of a strikeout pitcher than Shipley is at this point, fanning 171 last year at three levels of play and finishing well in Double-A. He's refined his curveball to go with a low- to mid-90s fastball and a solid change-up, giving him three strong pitches and a decent chance to be a no. 3 starter.”

6.87) Brandon Nimmo, OF, New York Mets (Craig Glaser, BSports)
“As a Mets fan I'm very familiar with The Wyoming Walk Machine. Nimmo was an extremely raw player when the Mets took him 13th overall in the 2011 draft but he has put up some very interesting numbers in the minors over the past three seasons. Nimmo reminds me a bit of my last pick, Garin Cecchini with his patient approach at the plate leading to outstanding walk rates. I would like to see more power from Nimmo and I think it is possible that his line in AA, which saw his BABIP slip but his power increase, might portend more interesting power numbers in 2015. He has shown some ability to steal a base and cut his strikeout significantly in 2014.”

6.88) Jake Lamb, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks (Al Melchior, CBS)
“Lamb hardly impressed during his 2014 major-league debut, as he showed neither the power nor the on-base ability that he has showcased in the minors. Then again, he made the jump to Arizona after a mere five games in Triple-A, but at Double-A Mobile, he swatted 14 home runs and 35 doubles in 374 at-bats, while putting up a .318/.399/.551 slash line. Not only does Lamb have a promising offensive skill set, but he has a relatively unencumbered return path to the majors. Yasmany Tomas will get a shot to play third, but he may not stick there, and once Lamb gets a little more seasoning in the minors, he could be ready to take over the hot corner for good.”

6.89) Bradley Zimmer, OF, Cleveland Indians (Nick Shlain, Baseball Prospectus)
“At this early stage, Zimmer’s well rounded profile interests dynasty owners because it allows him more than one avenue to value. If his line drive swing doesn’t end up yielding power typical of a corner outfielder, then there’s still a chance he’ll provide enough AVG, runs and steals to be worth it.”

6.90) Kohl Stewart, RHP, Minnesota Twins (Jim Callis, MLB.com)
“Time for me to take some pitching. I almost took Eddie Butler, who I also chose last year (at pick No. 40), but the combination of persistent shoulder problems and him having to pitch in Coors Field scared me off. I'll gamble instead on Stewart, the No. 4 overall selection in the 2013 draft. He needs to build up his stamina and he's still a couple of years away, but his athleticism and the potential for as many as four plus pitches are too enticing to pass up.”

Round Seven

7.91) Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox (Jim Callis, MLB.com)
“There are other arms who intrigue me, but several of them had physical issues in 2014, so I'll hope one of them makes it to my next pair of picks and tap into some raw power instead. Devers is only 18 and his career has barely started, but he has special pop and could be a 30-homer guy when he gets to Fenway Park. If he can stay at third base, all the better.”

7.92) Touki Toussaint, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (Nick Shlain, Baseball Prospectus)
“A first-round pick in 2014, Toussaint has almost as much upside as any pitcher in the minor leagues. In just 28 2/3 professional innings last year, he showed that he could be both dominant and wild. Still just 18 until late June, he can touch 97 mph and has the potential for three plus pitches. It’s definitely going to take time, but Toussaint’s potential could be well worth the wait.”

7.93) Alex Meyer, RHP, Minnesota Twins (Al Melchior, CBS)
“Meyer's 2014 season was a little disappointing in that he never got the call from the Twins, but maybe that was a good thing. I had actually considered drafting Meyer as early as Round 5, but backed off due to concerns over his sketchy control. Given that his BB/9 ratio shot up from 2.4 to 3.7 when he advanced from High-A to Double-A, it shouldn't have been surprising that his rate increased further in the International League. Still, it's hard not to get excited about the upper-90s heat and swing-and-miss stuff. Though he won't likely crack the Opening Day roster, it's hard to see him down on the farm for much longer.”

7.94) Domingo Santana, OF, Houston Astros (Craig Glaser, BSports)
“Santana had a short, disastrous stint in MLB in 2014 (seriously, did you know it was possible to accrue -0.5 WAR in 18 PA? I didn't.) Those six games aside, he has had productive batting years the past few years in the Astros system, taking walks and hitting for good power over the past three seasons. It's hard to imagine him dramatically cutting his strikeouts, which means it's unlikely he'll ever contribute in the batting average category, but he's close, steals a handful of bases each year, and should hit for power.”

7.95) Raisel Iglesias, RHP, Cincinnati Reds (John Sickels, Minor League Ball)
“The Reds signed 25-year-old Cuban defector Rasiel Iglesias to a seven-year, $27,000,000 contract over the summer. He is a real wild card at this point but he threw seven shutout innings in the Arizona Fall League on one hit, three walks, and seven strikeouts. He's up to 95, shows a strong breaking ball, and the Reds think he will show a sufficient changeup to be a starter eventually. I don't know what I'm really getting here: Is he a rotation anchor? A middle reliever? But it seems like a fun gamble to take.”

7.96) Lewis Brinson, OF, Texas Rangers (Brent Hershey, BaseballHQ)
“Brinson is another raw tools guy, with power and some speed who can play a decent CF. Two most impressive features: His ultra-athleticism that comes from a 6-3 170 frame—a frame which could take on some more bulk and possibly bump up his power a tick. The second is the improvement he made in his contact rate, which was a jarring 57% in 2013 in class-A Hickory. In 2014, he split time between class A and high-A, and he made contact in 72 percent of his AB, with 13 HR and 12 SB. He's still just 20 and will probably always have some swing-and-miss in him, but if he's able to maintain this level of contact or continue to improve, he should be able to contribute in several categories once he reaches the majors.”

7.97) Gabriel Guerrero, OF, Seattle Mariners (James Anderson, Rotowire)
“I will deviate from my best available strategy for the first time because I really need a bat here. If Vlad Jr. were eligible, he would be the pick (seriously), but I can still keep it in that family of hitting savants. It is uncomfortable to even cite numbers when High Desert is the home park, but Guerrero was fifth in homers and eighth in batting average among hitters 21 and under in the Cal League during his second year of full-season ball. I would like the Mariners to be as hands-off as possible with Guerrero, because I think his natural bat-to-ball ability can carry him to the big leagues as an everyday outfielder, but only time will tell on that front. Either way, his prospect stock should continue to trend up as he gets closer to The Show, and his last name should lead to him being a valuable trade chip in dynasty leagues if he has a big year at Double-A in 2015.”

7.98) Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, Washington Nationals (Bret Sayre, Baseball Prospectus)
“I didn’t particularly want to grab a fourth pitcher at this point, but at the risk of sounding like a broken record, we go where the value is. The value at this point is to a diminutive right-hander who showed up this year armed with a-100 MPH fastball and shocked everyone by turning himself into a bona fide top 100 prospect. Lopez has strong command for his age of that huge fastball and he pairs it with a curve that flashes plus and a developing change. There’s plenty of risk here, in both the frame and the progression of his secondaries, but there are also few arms with more upside at this point of the draft.”

7.99) Billy McKinney, OF, Chicago Cubs (Chris Crawford, Draft to the Show/ESPN)
“I thought McKinney had one of the best pure hit tools in the 2013 draft, and I was pleased to see him perform well after being acquired in the Jeff Samardzija/Jason Hammel trade. He's not going to give you elite power, but it's not an empty batting average and I think he'll hit more than his fair share of doubles in the process. Even if he won't likely help you until 2016 at the earliest, the upside in his left handed bat is too tempting for me to pass on.”

7.100) Alex Blandino, 2B/3B, Cincinnati Reds (Eno Sarris, FanGraphs)
“In my backyard, Alex Blandino played every position and shone. There are plenty that look down their nose at Stanford's development practices, but to my eye, Blandino never really became a robotic hitter. Sure, he doesn't have a big toe tap, and he likes to use the whole field, but it's possible the Stanford Swing issues don't really apply here. At the very least, he's a smart player who can play third or second (he was often the shortstop in college), has a good eye at the plate, has performed well to date, and as a 22-year-old out of college playing what might become a position of need for the Reds, I don't think he'll take all that long.”

7.101) Gary Sanchez, C, New York Yankees (Ben Carsley, Baseball Prospectus)
"I certainly didn't go into the draft thinking I'd nab Sanchez again (I took him last year, too) but I guess I just can't quit the upside. We all know about what limits Sanchez; the suspect effort and lack of refinement behind the plate, the struggles with breaking pitches, the body type; but try to imagine Sanchez if things do click. He's not so bad behind the plate that he couldn't retain fantasy eligibility there for the first several years of his career, and if you put a plus potential power source in Yankee Stadium, you get an appealing package. Sanchez hit .270/.338/.406 in Double-A as a 22-year-old last season, and while it would be nice to see the power manifest itself a bit more frequently in game scenarios, that's a respectable end total nonetheless. His proximity to the majors and upside outweigh his low ceiling here.”

7.102) Micah Johnson, 2B, Chicago White Sox (Mike Rosenbaum, Bleacher Report)
“After claiming the White Sox’s 2013 Minor League Player of the Year award in his full-season debut, Johnson, 24, took a slight step backwards last season at Triple-A Charlotte, both at the plate and on the base paths. Yes, he showed better plate discipline and made more consistent contact; however, his triple-slash line came undone against advanced sequencing, and he swiped only 22 bags in 35 attempts. Still, Johnson’s ability to steal 25-plus bases from the top of the order makes him appealing from a fantasy perspective in the seventh round, especially given the dwindling crop of middle infielders still in play. Unfortunately, after the South Siders’ offseason signings of Emilio Bonifacio and Gordon Beckham, Johnson might not get a crack at the highest level until mid- to late-2015.”

7.103) Orlando Arcia, SS, Milwaukee Brewers (D.J. Short, Rotoworld)
“I nearly chose Alen Hanson here (who ended up going on the very next pick), but I wanted someone on my roster who had a good chance to stick at shortstop. Arcia fits the bill. The younger brother of Twins outfielder Oswaldo Arcia, Orlando is a very different player. While he doesn't offer much pop, he makes contact and has good speed. Arcia had a breakout season as a 19-year-old in High-A last year, so there could still be some more development with the bat. It doesn't take much to get on the radar as a shortstop or middle infielder in fantasy leagues.”

7.104) Alen Hanson, 2B/SS, Pittsburgh Pirates (Craig Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus)
“After getting popped in the middle of the 5th round last year, Hanson drops to the end of the seventh round this year. He's certainly lost some prospect luster, as he's increasingly viewed as a right side of the infield player, but the distinction in fantasy shouldn't matter so much. He slashed .280/.326/.442 as a 21-year-old in Double-A, essentially matching his .281/.339/.444 line from 2013. He's got nice pop for a middle infielder, and while it seems that his eight percent walk rate in High-A is likely to be a high-water mark, when you make contact as much as Hanson does, it's fine to be a little below average in walks. He's not a star, either in real life or in fantasy, but he's a solid contributor who I'm happy to snag this late in the draft, given the dearth of bats available.”

7.105) Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Boston Red Sox (Ray Guilfoyle, Fake Teams)
“I need another starter, so I grabbed one of the better young pitchers still available on the board. The Red Sox received Rodriguez in the deal that sent Andrew Miller to the Orioles. Rodriguez has the potential to be a mid-rotation starter once he learns to show more consistency on the mound. He was dominant in his short stint with the Red Sox after the deal and will look to carry that into the 2015 season.”

To be continued…

Bret Sayre is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @BretSayreBP
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