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February 2, 2015

Transaction Analysis

Million-Dollar Bills

by R.J. Anderson

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IN THIS ISSUE

American League
National League

BOSTON RED SOX
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart
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Signed RHP Alexi Ogando to a one-year deal worth $1.5 million. [1/30]

The Red Sox make a cheap bet on the short-arming Ogando, who is coming off a horrid season. In addition to poor results (his walk rate exceeded five per nine), a sprained elbow sidelined him for more than three months, and may have contributed to a velocity dip. Yet Ogando's cost and track record (he had a career 3.12 ERA and 2.59 strikeout-to-walk rate entering last season) make him an attractive, if risky quantity. There's enough upside here to envision Ogando pitching important innings late in the season for the Red Sox, and enough downside to think he might be off the roster by the All-Star break. Check back in five months to find out which side prevailed. —R.J. Anderson

TAMPA BAY RAYS
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart
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Signed RHP Ronald Belisario to a minor-league deal. [1/31]

Belisario joins his third team in three seasons (his fourth if you include his failed deal with the Blue Jays). His laundry has changed, but he hasn't. He still lives off his mid-90s sinker and dies with all other aspects to his game. Jim Hickey, one of the best in the game at extracting value from journeyman relievers, will have his work cut out for him this spring if Belisario is to become more than a right-handed-slash-groundball specialist masquerading as a middle reliever. He just doesn't have the command or secondary stuff to ascend beyond that status at this point. —R.J. Anderson

TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart
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Signed UTL-S Ramon Santiago to a minor-league deal. [1/29]

The Blue Jays are not a team built for flexibility. Presuming Toronto enters the season with three backstops and Justin Smoak on the roster, the final bench spots will belong to an extra infielder and outfielder. Almost by rule, those players will need to be protean defenders. As such, Santiago is a reasonable candidate for the job. He's a quality glove with recent experience at short, second, and third. He can't hit, but how many spare infielders can? Given that Santiago has an opt-out—something lacked by internal candidates—it's fair to call him the favorite until he proves otherwise. —R.J. Anderson

COLORADO ROCKIES
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart
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Acquired RHPs David Hale and Gus Schlosser from the Braves in exchange for C-R Jose Briceno and C-S Chris O'Dowd. [1/30]

The Rockies owned the worst ERA in baseball last season, but you wouldn't know it based on their offseason moves. Prior to trading for Hale and Schlosser, the Rockies' pitching additions included four fellows (Jorge Rondon, Shane Carle, Jairo Diaz, and Austin House) who averaged fewer than two big-league innings each in 2014; Hale and Schlosser combined for more than 100—will they do it again?Probably. Though neither Hale nor Schlosser is likely to stick in the rotation, both Braves castoffs could eat innings in relief.

The more experienced of the two, Hale is an athletic Princeton attendee coming off a deceptive campaign. His 110 ERA+ gives him the appearance of respectability; an image shattered by him recording a strikeout every other inning (and almost one per walk). Hale has some pros—he generated 57 percent groundballs using a passable three-pitch mix—but his inability to consistently throw strikes or miss bats will lead him to the bullpen in the long run.

Schlosser, you might recall, was non-tendered then re-signed by the Braves in December. He throws a low-90s sinker and upper-70s breaking ball from a lower arm slot than you'd expect from a career starter. Depending on what the Rockies want, Schlosser could open the season in the minors as rotational depth, or in the bullpen as a potential situational reliever. —R.J. Anderson

MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart
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Signed LHP Neal Cotts to a one-year deal worth $3 million. [1/29]

Doug Melvin needed bullpen help—what with Tyler Thornburg and Jim Henderson nursing arm injuries from last season, and the Jonathan Papelbon talks seemingly requiring a doctor's attention—so it's not surprising to see the resourceful Melvin dig into the free-agent bin for an interesting arm.

Cotts, now years into a late-career rebirth, just tossed more than 55 innings in consecutive seasons for the first time since 2005-2006. That he did so in Texas while maintaining a healthy strikeout-to-walk rate and keeping the ball in the yard (despite being a fly-ball guy) is noteworthy. Ditto for his reverse splits. Cotts might look like a left-handed specialist—complete with a closed landing, a fastball-cutter approach, and a jawline firm enough to crack fingers on—but he hasn't pitched like one. The overall package is such that, when Ron Roenicke wants to get cute in the middle innings, Cotts should be a serviceable option. —R.J. Anderson

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart
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Signed RHP Chad Billingsley to a one-year deal worth $1.5 million. [1/29]

Counting on Billingsley, who hasn't pitched in the majors since 2013 following two elbow operations, to provide meaningful innings is a stretch. Fortunately, the Phillies are doing no such thing. Ruben Amaro has positioned his club to where Billingsley can be used as a depth piece with some upside and little more. If Billingsley looks ready in late April, then Jerome Williams (or whomever) can slide to the 'pen until Billingsley is traded. If Billingsley never looks ready, due to a new injury or those from the past, then that's no hair off Amaro's head, either—not when he has enough veterans and coming-soon youngsters to staff a rotation. The stakes are so low here you can crawl over them. —R.J. Anderson

R.J. Anderson is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see R.J.'s other articles. You can contact R.J. by clicking here

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Premium Article 2015 Prospects: Oaklan... (02/02)

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