January 27, 2015

Rumor Roundup

The Dodgers + Yoan Moncada Is So Obvious

by Daniel Rathman

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Royals have yet to close door on James Shields
Don't mistake that statement, straight from general manager Dayton Moore and relayed by Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star, for a sign of serious discussions between the right-hander and his most recent employer. Moore is keeping in touch with Shields, but a reunion is still unlikely. The GM himself said, “I’m not sure there’s a fit.”

Sans Shields, the Royals rotation is set to feature Yordano Ventura, Jason Vargas, Jeremy Guthrie, Danny Duffy, and Edinson Volquez. Kris Medlen, an intriguing buy-low pickup coming off of his second Tommy John surgery, offers depth and mid-rotation upside if he clears the medical hurdle.

Shields, meanwhile, should eventually find a home, albeit for less money than he initially sought. CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman made nine guesses on the 33-year-old’s eventual landing spot—some based on info from sources, others purely speculative—in a column on Monday. The Royals barely snuck in at no. 9.

Brewers and Francisco Rodriguez, on the other hand, could reunite
After scraping the bottom of the trade-market barrel, but scuttling talks with the Phillies about Jonathan Papelbon over financial concerns, the Brewers might address their bullpen need with a familiar face. ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted on Monday that K-Rod could be returning to Milwaukee.

It’s unclear if the sides are close to a deal, but the 33-year-old righty hasn’t drawn much interest this offseason after serving up 14 homers in 68 innings last year. Those gopher balls shot his FIP up to 4.47, even though he logged a solid 73-to-18 K:BB ratio.

Opponents amassed a .715 OPS versus Rodriguez with the bases empty in 2014, but he was able to clamp down and hold foes to a .171/.222/.276 batting line with at least one man on. Twelve of the 14 big flies slugged at K-Rod’s expense were of the solo variety.

Even stranger than that is the fact that Rodriguez managed to cough up 3.5 times as many homers as he did doubles. According to the Baseball-Reference Play Index, only seven pitchers have done that in seasons in which they worked at least 68 innings. The most recent was Juan Carlos Oviedo (then Leo Nunez) in 2009.

With that in mind, it’s a good bet that something will have to give in 2015, and the Brewers seem willing—now that their options have dwindled—to place a wager on K-Rod’s home-run rates coming back down to earth. Milwaukee is the only club to which Rodriguez has been tied during the last week.

Yoan Moncada holds workout for Dodgers
Cuban infielder Yoan Moncada has been showing off his skills and tools for major-league evaluators while awaiting the OFAC clearance he needs to sign. He’s already had an audience from the Giants and Yankees, according to Baseball America’s Ben Badler, and now, the Dodgers have put private eyes on Moncada, too.

Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reported that news on Monday afternoon, hours after the rumored workout, and noted that the Dodgers must be considered among the favorites to land the 19-year-old because of their spending power. Since Moncada will be treated as an amateur who cannot sign a big-league deal, whichever club signs him will be subject to the overage penalties for exceeding its international bonus pool. Most notably, that means a 100 percent tax that, hypothetically, would turn a $30 million bonus into a $60 million expenditure for the team.

Hence, most clubs are likely to be priced out not long after the bidding begins. The Dodgers, Giants, and Yankees are three of the select few that could stomach such an outlay for a player who probably won’t see The Show until at least 2016. It’s no surprise that they’ve been among the first to hold reported workouts. MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez tweeted yesterday evening that the Brewers, Padres, Rangers, and Red Sox have brought Moncada in, as well.

Texas’ interest is noteworthy, because the Rangers cannot spend more than $250,000 on any individual player during this signing period, after incurring an overage penalty two years ago. It might suggest that the club feels there’s a chance Moncada will not sign until after the next signing period begins on July 2nd, perhaps because the OFAC clearance process could drag out.

That process, as Passan tweeted, is at four months and counting.

Yoan Moncada remains in OFAC purgatory for now, as @kileymcd wrote earlier. Still waiting for an unblocking license. Been four months plus.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) January 26, 2015

When it will end is still anyone’s guess.

Daniel Rathman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @danielrathman
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