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January 26, 2015 Fantasy Players to TargetThird Basemen
Previous articles in this series: If you’re about to draft and you’re all, like, “damn, I don’t know who I should target for third base,” you should definitely keep reading. Pedro Alvarez, Pirates There were areas of potential unrealized growth on top of the approach gains as well. While Alvarez’s batted ball distance tumbled out of the top six in all of baseball for the first time in three years, it tumbled all of 20 spots to 23rd overall. And that total included two months of weaker, injury-addled contact. Point being, the loss of 10 percentage points off his HR:FB rate was probably not warranted by his contact results. Meanwhile his line-drive rate—notoriously among the most fickle of batted-ball indicators—plummeted to 15.8 percent last year after failing to come in south of 18.7 percent in any previous season. He’s currently going as the 17th third baseman off the board in early NFSB drafts, with an ADP over 200. His 2013 efforts—the same ones he was on pace to approximate last year with another half-season of normal production—were good for 11th among the third base ranks and the overall 82nd-best mixed league value. The opportunity for surplus return on investment here is significant, particularly if he can carry over the approach progress he showed in the first three months of 2014. —Wilson Karaman Nolan Arenado, Rockies The 23-year-old may not steal many bases, but he has proven that he can hit for average, power, and accumulate run/RBI totals. It certainly helps that he plays most of his games at Coors. While scouts and analysts may suggest that augments his “true” ability, fantasy owners don’t care. Fantasy owners will take the inflated offensive numbers from Colorado Rockies players and run with it, especially when he’s currently being ranked in the same tier as Matt Carpenter. There’s also the age factor that’s coming into play. He’s not even close to his prime, and although he shouldn’t be expected to magically improve because he’s young, his place on the hypothetical development curve is attractive. Furthermore, he’s a defensive whiz at third base. That doesn’t impact fantasy owners, but it should keep him in the everyday lineup -- even if he goes through an extended slump at any point in the near future. All in all, Arenado possesses the ability to hit .280-plus with at least 20 homers, solid run totals and even a couple stolen bases. His current average-draft position is ninth amongst third basemen. That’s not crazy good value or anything of the sort, but I think he has the potential to be a top-five third baseman by the end of the year. —J.P. Breen Manny Machado, Orioles Manny Machado presents us with this rare type of opportunity. Kris Bryant and his zero major league at bats are being drafted 48 slots ahead of Machado in early NFBC drafts, while Yasmany Tomas and his zero at bats of professional experience are being drafted a mere three slots behind Machado. Meanwhile, all Machado has done as a big leaguer since 2013 is hit 26 home runs, swat 103 RBI, score 126 times, and hit .282 in 1,064 plate appearances. Despite the knee injuries, Machado has still been a productive hitter when he has taken the field. Last year’s injury also hid the fact that there were some encouraging signs of growth in Machado’s power profile. His ISO and TAv both crept up slightly, but more importantly Machado’s HR/PA moved up significantly. Machado was on pace for a 23 home run season across 156 games last year, compared to the 14 home runs he hit in 156 games in 2013. Machado jumped up from 168th overall in batted-ball distance in 2013 to 111th last year. Want to see something really cool?
(data from Baseball Reference) Mike Trout and Bryce Harper are frequently discussed as baseball’s young superstar and the next-great-thing, but based on his performance at such a young age Machado belongs in this conversation as well. Players who man the hot corner capably across 1,000-plus plate appearances starting in their age-19 seasons are future superstars more often than not. In case you believe this is cherry picking, only Eddie Matthews, Ron Santo, and Freddie Lindstrom have exceeded Machado’s OPS+ in 1000 or more plate appearances at third base through their age-21 seasons. Do the multiple knee injuries concern me? Of course. But Machado is a player who still has superstar potential and is being treated like Pablo Sandoval in early drafts. The floor isn’t that low and the ceiling is a top-10 third baseman. —Mike Gianella Aramis Ramirez, Brewers The thing you'll notice about those TAvs is the downward trend, and last year certainly wasn't his best, as his walk rate dipped below five percent for the first time since 2000. The play with Ramirez isn't just for production, but production relative to draft position or dollars paid. With his advancing age and injury history, many are too shy to pull the trigger on a guy who has remained mostly healthy in recent years. Even his down season included a .285/.330/.427 slash line, and a miraculous three stolen bases. He will miss some time, but it's more likely to be of the 15-day variety than the 60-day, and he's productive when he's on the field. There's also a decent chance he can get back to the 20-homer plateau he's reached in season's past rather than settling for the 15 he offered in 2014. Ramirez's innate hitting ability plays up as well, as he rarely strikes out, and more balls in play with a good batting average is a plus. While he's no dominant force in a fantasy lineup, he's a nice down-draft option for those who choose to focus on other positions early. Outside of runs, he was comparable to Pablo Sandoval last year, and they were and will be valued drastically differently come draft day (though this year is a little more understandable given the park/lineup for Sandoval). —Craig Goldstein David Wright, Mets Obviously, the reason Wright is so low in so many rankings is that he’s coming off a highly disappointing 2014. His .269 AVG was the second lowest of his career and he only managed eight home runs with 63 RBI and 54 runs scored. Even his stolen-base total fell to single digits for the first time since his rookie year. There were clearly some issues last season for Wright, but there are also plenty of reasons for optimism in 2015. The 32-year-old suffered through shoulder injuries throughout the past year, a major contributor to his utter lack of power. By all accounts, he appears to be healthy as we get closer to spring training, and that revamped health should go a long way towards bringing that home run total back near the 20 mark we’re accustomed to. On top of the health issues, Wright also saw his home run to fly ball ratio fall to a career-low 3.4 percent, and the Mets will be bringing in the fences at Citi Field. With no noticeably significant changes to his plate discipline, it’s not crazy to view his plummeting walk-rate as an aberration. His OBP should get back up to the .360-.375 range, and with it his runs and stolen bases total will rise as well. Instead of using an earlier-round pick on someone like Todd Frazier, Nolan Arenado, or Josh Harrison, use that pick to strengthen other positions on your roster. Wright should still be around near the 90th pick of your draft, and could be one of the best value picks by the end of 2015. —Matt Collins
BP Fantasy Staff is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
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The thing I worry about with Aramis is collapse in his BB rate to 4% and downward trend of both FB rate and HR/FB. He's a guy I'd rather get away from too early because the drop off is going to be sudden and steep.