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January 22, 2015 The -Only League LandscapeNational League Second Basemen
We have explored the catching and first base landscapes in the National League the past two weeks, and this week we will take a deeper look at the state of the second base position. If you are searching for power sources, you may struggle finding them from this player pool. Only two members of the current pool of second basemen hit more than 12 homers last season, as Neil Walker and Anthony Rendon led the field with 23 and 21 long flies, respectively. You will also not find a surplus of speed from this position, as only Dee Gordon (64 steals) and Kolten Wong (20 steals) cracked 20 swipes a season ago. While there are very few fantasy stars, there are several second- and middle-tier options at second base that may not produce jaw-dropping stats, but have shown consistency in recent years delivering production across multiple categories, which makes them quite valuable. As J.P. Breen wrote in his State of the Position article on Monday, the landscape of the second-base position is subtly changing but very deep, and this holds true in the NL. Rendon and Gordon are the clear elite fantasy players at the position. In fact, Gordon and Rendon’s $34 and $31 earnings, respectively, made them both top-five players overall in standard NL-Only 5x5 formats in 2014. Rendon’s ability as a five-category player and Gordon’s prowess on the basepaths (his 64 steals last year were more than three NL teams had—including his new team, the Marlins), will make them highly targeted in drafts, so if you want one, be prepared to spend a big chunk of your fantasy hitting budget to get the two prizes of the second-base pool. If Rendon and Gordon elude your grasp and soar past your sheet prices, all is not lost, as there are a handful of interesting options left that can fill your second-base slot without breaking your bank. Back to the premise that this position has several players with a proven track record of providing stability from an earning perspective for a reasonable cost—see the chart below. Please note the 2014 average salary is derived from the prices in CBS, LABR, and Tout Wars (as prepared by Mike Gianella), and the average yearly earnings over the most recent five seasons is based on NL-Only 4x4 and 5x5 scoring in standard format leagues:
Again, while none of these six players will overwhelm owners in any one category, historically they produce positive results in multiple categories, which is crucial when building a balanced offense. Regarding the two elder statesmen, while Utley is no longer the home-run threat he once was, he still puts up numbers that have made him a $20 player in each of the last two seasons. As for Phillips, he missed 41 games due to injury in 2014, the first year he has missed significant time since 2008, but was still able to manage $11 in earnings. While his 15-SB days are gone, he can still provide production in three categories and be a $15-$18 player this year. He is no longer an elite option, but it’s premature to say his productive fantasy days are over, and he should be available at a very reasonable price coming off a down year. Of the currently available players heading into 2015 drafts, only one second baseman went for an average salary of $20 in the expert leagues a season ago (Prado) despite multiple players cracking $20 in earnings in 2013. Over the past couple of years in the NL, this hasn’t been a position at which you need to overspend, so keep that in mind when heading into your drafts. Drawing from personal experience in my multiple NL-Only leagues, I have been able to target my preferred players at the keystone at my sheet price in recent drafts, securing a solid second baseman at or below par cost. That said, coming off their big seasons, both Rendon and Gordon will surely rocket past $20 bids, and it’s possible both will go past their market value. In the scenario where there are a couple of owners (and we know that is all it takes) who get into a bidding war for their services during your draft, it’s fine to gracefully bow out knowing there is value in that next tier at a much more reasonable price. There are a few new faces that have emerged over the past year and a half, adding additional depth to the position and providing more solid fantasy options. Of them, Wong jumps out as the wild card when preparing your player valuations. After a horrible start left him at .228/.282/.304 with only one home run on June 20th, Wong was placed on the DL with a shoulder injury. Upon his activation on July 6th, Wong responded with a .284/.319/.567 line that month with five bombs and hit a total of nine homers from July on (and three more in the postseason) while going 11-for-13 in SB opportunities. If Wong can build off last year’s second half and take the next step in 2015, he could easily be a $25 player when all is said and done. Scooter Gennett snatched the second-base job away from Rickie Weeks in Milwaukee and had a fine year, posting $16 in earnings. Based on what he has shown in his year and change with the Brewers, combined with his minor-league pedigree, Gennett might also be on the cusp of a $20-plus season. Javier Baez has a world of talent but is very raw, and Cubs GM Jed Hoyer stated last week that Baez "has to earn his playing time." He is the favorite to start at second base on the South Side, but his .169/.227/.324 slash line and 95 strikeouts in his 52 games should temper expectations and, along with them, his bid price. Ironically, teammate Arismendy Alcantara, who was slated to be the Cubs Opening Day center fielder prior to the Dexter Fowler acquisition, played 25 games at 2B for the Cubs in 2014 and could be a better option in fantasy leagues than Baez. Both remain intriguing plays for 2015, as the fantasy upside for both is quite appealing. In summary, the NL second base pool is top heavy with Rendon and Gordon, but still provides several viable options below that first tier—options that have proven they can put up solid earnings. Again, the value of this position from a fantasy perspective is not tied to any one or two categories, but rather the depth and relatively low risk across the board based on the prices/draft positions we should expect to see these players selected in 2015. With the veterans at the position, the “what you see is what you get” stability they offer makes getting burned by one of these players less of a fear, and there is something to be said for that. As for the younger players, the reward can be high, but if you bid aggressively, just be prepared for the potential risk. There are also some potential strong value plays amongst the lower tiers. As such, here are a few interesting NL-Only second base targets for deep formats. “Earnings” are based on Mike Gianella’s Rotisserie-style, 4x4 and 5x5 formulas he provided in his Retrospective Player Valuation article from November 20th. Aaron Hill – Diamondbacks Jedd Gyorko - Padres Joe Panik – Giants Alberto Callaspo – Braves Here are some additional deeper 2B plays to target very late if you are nearing the end of your drafts and still need that MI to fill out your roster, or your league allows for reserves: Dilson Herrera – Mets Jose Peraza– Braves Danny Espinosa - Nationals Tommy La Stella – Cubs
Keith Cromer is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @keithcromer18
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"...provided in his Retrospective Player Valuation article from November 20th."
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